tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72160313002578629442024-03-14T02:28:28.583-07:00Jordholmen-okonventionell investeringJordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.comBlogger133125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-46920083394350218052020-07-12T02:14:00.003-07:002020-07-12T02:14:26.220-07:00Down the Rabbit Hole - Frank K Martin<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
<a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/07/10/down-the-rabbit-hole/#more-5283" target="_blank">https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/07/10/down-the-rabbit-hole/#more-5283</a></div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
As I wrote to you on <a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2017/10/19/1929-is-more-apt-anniversary-than-1987/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #b64600; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none;">October 19, 2017</a>, Edward Chancellor and I met soon after I read his prescient and literarily superb book, <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation</em> (2000). We have stayed in regular touch, including attending a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting together. This is his fifth appearance as guest writer. Just yesterday he sent me the following fable from Breakingviews which, with his permission, I am posting as it captures the zeitgeist of the times like few others are able to do.</div>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" style="background-color: #eeece8; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; height: 1px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; max-width: 100px;" />
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
Alice was tired of studying for the CFA exams, the figures in the spreadsheet were blurry, she laid her head on the desk…</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
Her first day at Tweedle Asset Management was going to be a busy one. She was escorted around the offices by a young staffer named, Otto. Their first visit was to the bond team. Fixed income was Alice’s keenest <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">interest</em>.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Do you hold bonds for income?” she eagerly asked. Everyone laughed. “Are you dreaming?” the desk head replied rudely. “The coupon is subtracted from the principal, not paid out. If it’s income you want, you should we take out a Danish mortgage, they pay very well. Or sell short Swissies.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“But why own a bond, if it doesn’t pay interest?” replied Alice who’d read her Homer and Sylla* assiduously.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“As long as yields continue declining, even at negative rates we hold bonds for capital gains. If you want dividends, go ask the equity folks.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“I see,” said Alice doubtfully, hoping that stock-market investors would prove more sensible. At least, they valued investments by discounting future income streams. But on opening a door marked “Fundamental Active Equity,” she came across an empty trading floor. </div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Oh, we closed down that team last month – they’d been underperforming for decades,” said Otto.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“What was their problem – did they buy <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">overpriced</em> stocks?” Alice asked, keen to show off her knowledge of Fama and French**.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“That’s exactly what they didn’t do!” replied Otto scornfully. “They stuck with value, and as everybody knows value sucks. If you want to outperform, you’ve got to show your FANGs.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
This didn’t sound quite right to Alice, who wondered how Otto ever passed the CFA exams.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“If you’ve sacked all your fundamental investors, who manages your equity portfolios?”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Nobody, exactly. All the money is passively invested in index funds. As they say, ‘if you can’t beat the market, at least you can replicate it.’”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“But that means nobody is assessing the stocks’ fair value. It sounds like the market’s on autopilot,” she commented.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Forget about equities, Alice,” Otto advised kindly, “that’s no longer where the action is. If you want to meet real investors, go visit the VC team.” So, a week later, Alice pushed through the swing doors to enter Tweedle’s fancy offices in Menlo Park. Everything was just as Alice had imagined, complete with bean bags and free candy-vending machines.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“What type of companies do you invest in?” asked Alice of the young VC, named Anna, who showed her around.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“We invest in unicorns,” replied Anna smartly.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“That must be difficult, because unicorns are mythical creatures,” Alice joked.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Well, there are hundreds of unicorns in Silicon Valley – a unicorn is just a company with a <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">fabulous</em> valuation. Still, the business side of affairs is pretty mythical,” she added with a smirk.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“What do you mean?” asked Alice, more dumbfounded than ever.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Well, most unicorns are just black boxes. If you open the box, it turns out to be empty.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“That doesn’t sound like a very <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">wise</em> investment,” said Alice primly.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“True enough, but they make very good <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">speculations</em>. Besides our aim isn’t to find companies that do anything useful or will ever make a profit. No, we look to get in at an early funding stage and exit at the IPO. That’s where the real money is made.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
A few days later, Alice spent the day with the private equity team, Tweedle’s highest-compensated employees.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“How do you add value?” she asked to get the conversation going.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“There are only three things you need to know about private equity: <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">leverage</em>, <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">leverage</em> and <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">leverage,</em>” replied a slick young man in a bespoke Savile Row suit. “Our business is financial engineering.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“But isn’t it risky to load companies with too much debt?” asked Alice whose vague understanding of Modigliani-Miller*** taught her that you can’t create value just by adding debt.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Oh, all the risk is carried by the creditors – we stuff them with covenant-lite loans, payment-in-kind bonds, and the like. They’ll take any dreck for the tiniest slither of income. And when the proverbial hits the fan, we refinance.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Everything seems so strange,” Alice thought to herself. “I don’t think I’m cut out to be an investor, after all. Perhaps I’d enjoy economics research more.” </div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
That’s how she came to find herself knocking on the door of Dr. Oirob, head of Tweedie’s monetary and economics department.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal,” intoned the doctor, trim beard and bespectacled with a shrewd, playful look on his face. “Interest rates have been pushed down to unimaginable levels. There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“At last, here’s someone I understand,” Alice mused, slipping into an empty chair.</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Central banks have stepped through a mirror,” continued Oirob excitedly. “They used to struggle to control inflation. Now they can’t push it up. They used to oppose wage increases, now they urge them on. It’s the same with fiscal expansion. We were taught that inflation was monetary, and that economic activity was real, but now it seems that inflation is real and what we thought was “real” turns out to be purely financial. Everything is upside down.”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
Alice now wondered whether she understood any of this. To change the subject she asked,</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Isn’t Modern Monetary Theory the cure to all our problems?”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
Alice really was <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">au courant </em>with the latest trends in economics. </div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Why those snake-oil peddlers,” replied the sage, showing an irascible side, “would have us believe six impossible things before breakfast – government debt doesn’t matter, deficits are the cure not the problem, governments don’t have to raise taxes or issue bonds, they can just print money, blah, blah. It’s the most complete nonsense!”</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
“Here’s the root of the problem.” Oirob*** continued, his eyes burning intensely, “For two decades or more, central banks have played around with interest rates, pushing them lower and lower. They meant well but didn’t understand they were messing with the price of time. If you set the clock – the <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">tempo</em> of capitalism – to run backwards the normal order of things breaks down: companies turn into zombies, herds of unicorns appear, investment discipline disappears. Wealth becomes virtual. Inequality is unleashed. Society melts down, markets melt up…”</div>
<span id="more-5283" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"></span><br />
<div style="background-color: #f9f9f9; box-sizing: inherit; color: #192930; font-family: tinos-1, tinos-2, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 1.8em;">
At this point, Alice opened her eyes. Her face glowing in the reflection of the monitor. It had all been a dream, a most wonderful dream. Now, it was back to dull reality. She clicked on the Reuters website to see if anything had happened while she slept. Nothing remarkable, it seemed, just a story about a new strain of the cold virus spreading in central China.</div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-11437193142334646382020-04-22T09:20:00.000-07:002020-04-22T09:20:46.748-07:00Dysfunktionen i systemet allt mer blottlagt.<br />
FED köper högränteobligationer och "räddar" felallokerad placerare, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyKIvnied-o&t=10m40s" target="_blank">Carl Icahn varnade för en kris på högränteobligationsmarknaden för 5 år sedan.</a><br />
<br />
Negativa priser på olja, negativa räntor....<br />
<br />
Centralbankerna delar ut pengar till alla invånare.<br />
<br />
Detta är förstås bara en del av en policy som pågått i snart 10 år:<br />
<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwo5FGSKMi_0xWuRWaOjm7vcCYIXlzq9Jz1EvuHmM0x3AbHdoazzJsWpMTT2_STJ98PcQs8fAlpNvSiRJzkZm-DRjEXNGLKcl2ZV_MtNvW3KsApvfkJ03qRzhqzxNUHF1UoGD-_ioaeX52/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" /><br />
<br />
Fyfan vad obehagligt allt detta är, desperationen för att hålla ihop systemet är tydligt. Kanske fixar dom det, bara gud vet. Varför har centralbankerna slutat att intervenera dagligen nu när börsen går upp? Det är förstås självklart om man betraktar ovanstående citat.<br />
<br />
Vad händer om det visar sig att ekonomin inte kan återhämta sig omedelbart efter 22 miljoner nya arbetslösa/permitterade i USA? Eller folk i gemene är skrämda och tillväxt inte återgår på 9 månader?<br />
<br />
<b>Vad är nästa steg? Ska Centralbankerna börja göra direkta stödköp på börsen? Skicka ut 10 000 USD till alla tiggare? Köpa upp all olja som produceras i USA för att bygga upp de nationella nödlagren (kanske en av de mer vettiga åtgärderna de kan göra nu)? </b><br />
<br />
I allt väsentligt syns dysfunktion tydligare nu än tidigare.<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Should it be a surprise that stocks go straight up and then crash straight down? Which part of <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“record prices, record valuations, record leverage, record derivatives trading and record complexity” </strong>should investors be excused from understanding? Any outright long investor who is not waking up in the middle of the night sweating and worrying whether there will be a next leg of the bear market (despite the desperate and gigantic policy moves) is either Cool Hand Luke or <em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">oblivious.</strong></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
We are not in the business of calling market turns. Why did most managers, economists, strategists and policymakers miss it? Certainly as the virus was getting underway, advisors should have been incorporating it into their thinking. Certainly as the global economy started shutting down, advisors should not have been upgrading their recession probability forecasts “from 20% to 25%” and modestly downgrading their Chinese growth forecasts “from 6.1% to 5.6%.” Maybe investors DIDN’T miss it. Maybe they actually thought that no matter what happens, the authorities want stocks to go up, and that is all you need to know.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The central bankers, particularly at the Fed, should be ashamed of themselves for fostering that belief, and for allowing the policy mix to be so skewed toward free and (overly) plentiful money. </strong>The solution is now pouring unlimited money into the boiling cauldron. MMT has come along just in time to justify everything. Not in productive ways, not in the building of useful infrastructure, not doing a better job of educating our workforce so we can grow like crazy, but just to save the screwed-up system that we have, just to hold things together. Helicopter money has made the job of active investing harder, and the suppression of interest rates by central bankers lowers the forward rates of return for everyone. You might say, “But it has enhanced the to-date rate of return.” We would retort, <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“That is true, but despite the artificially enhanced to-date rates of return in bonds and stocks, net debt has skyrocketed, pension plans are universally underfunded and developed world infrastructure is oriented toward political pet projects and is inadequate to support needed economic growth going forward." (Paul Singer)</strong></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></strong></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
"As for me, with the yesterday’s Fed announcement of unlimited QE and its “will buy or support almost anything,” along with the pending passage of a $2-2.5 trillion stimulus package, this is the end of the capital markets as we have known them. We have now entered unlimited QE and MMT where there is no escape. It is the Roach Motel all over again. In Chairman Bernanke‘s 2010 Washington Post op-ed, he argued that QE would lead to a virtuous economic cycle; therefore, the Fed would eventually be able to exit from its QE operations. I argued that once initiated, a reversal would be impossible. It would be like the Roach Motel, “You can check in, but you cannot check out.”</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
With the initiation of the Fed’s complete takeover and control of the US financial economy, there is now absolutely no accurate pricing discovery in the capital markets and we have entered a period of total manipulation. In light of this, the only markets I have an interest in are those where the heavy hand of government is not involved or only minimally involved. This leads me to rare commodities and collectibles. The public equity and debt markets are now nothing more than greater fool markets that are led by the greatest fools of all, the Fed and the Congress. US capital markets, RIP!" (Robert Rodriguez)</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></strong></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-87912866100132004742020-04-09T07:06:00.000-07:002020-04-09T07:06:19.431-07:00Tänkvärda ord om centralbanker<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><b>Q3 2013 Shareholder Letter</b></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span><br /><div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
"Is it possible that the average citizen understands our country's fiscal situation <em><strong>better than many of our politicians or prominent economists?</strong></em></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<strong>Most people seem to viscerally recognize that the absence of an immediate crisis does not mean we will not eventually face one. </strong>They are <span style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong>wary of believing promises by those who failed to predict previous crises in housing and in highly leveraged financial institutions</strong></span>.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<strong>(...) When an economist tells them that growing the nation's debt over the past 12 years from $6 trillion to $16 trillion is not a problem, and that doubling it again will still not be a problem, this simply does not compute</strong>. They know the trajectory we are on.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
When politicians claim that this tax increase or that spending cut will generate trillions over the next decade, <strong>they are properly skeptical over whether anyone can truly know what will happen next year, let alone a decade or more from now.</strong></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
They are wary of grand bargains that kick in years down the road, knowing <strong>that the failure to make hard decisions is how we got into today's mess. They remember that one of the basic principles of economics is scarcity</strong>, which is a powerful force in their own lives.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
They know that a society's wealth is not unlimited, and <strong>that if the economy is so fragile that the government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse. <span style="text-decoration-line: underline;">For if you must rescue everything, then ultimately you will be able to rescue nothing</span></strong>.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
They also know that the only reason paper money, backed not by anything tangible but only a promise, has any value at all is because it is scarce. With all the printing, the credibility of our entire trust-based monetary system will be increasingly called into question.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px; width: inherit !important;">
And when you tell the populace that <strong>we can all enjoy a free lunch </strong>of extremely low interest rates, massive Fed purchases of mounting treasury issuance, trillions of dollars of expansion in the Fed's balance sheet, and huge deficits far into the future, <strong style="text-decoration-line: underline;">they are highly skeptical not because they know precisely what will happen but because they are sure that no one else--even, or perhaps especially, the policymakers—does either." </strong>(Klarman, Q3 2013)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 18.4px;"><b>2012 letter Seth Klarman</b></span><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"If economics were a hard science like chemistry, you’d mix a little of this with a bit of that and the concoction would lead to strong economic growth, full employment, rising home prices, buoyant financial markets, and low inflation every time. <b><span style="color: red;">But economics is a soft science, and real life simply doesn’t work so predictably. Though economists might wish otherwise, economics is, at its core, behavioral.</span></b> Modern economies are too complex to be reliably modeled; their connections and correlations are lose and imprecise, the second- and third-order effects largely immeasurable the fickle vagaries of individual and aggregate human behavior utterly unknowable. <b><span style="color: red;">Put an economist in a powerful government job and provide levers that can be pulled to start the printing presses, set reserve requirements, fiddle with the Fed funds rate, expand the Fed’s balance sheet, and deliver indecipherable communiqués, and that economist will feel compelled to pull those levers.</span></b> He or she, like a monkey with a typewriter, might even give us Shakespeare (or Adam Smith) on occasion. But mostly that economist will spout gibberish, a mélange of untested and potentially counterproductive measures that unleash all manner of unintended consequences." (Seth Klarman, 2012 letter) </span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-63838837147125436192020-04-07T09:37:00.002-07:002020-04-07T09:37:37.364-07:00Preliminary Thoughts – The New World Order<div class="ap-content-lazy-loader-page" data-page-number="1" id="page-1" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; overflow: hidden;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The following letter was sent by Bob Rodriguez to his friends and colleagues yesterday, as well as to Bob Huebscher. Bob Rodriguez has graciously allowed us to publish it.</em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Robert L. Rodriguez was the former portfolio manager of the small/mid-cap absolute-value strategy (including FPA Capital Fund, Inc.) and the absolute-fixed-income strategy (including FPA New Income, Inc.) and a former managing partner at FPA, a Los Angeles-based asset manager. He retired at the end of 2016, following more than 33 years of service.</em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">He won many awards during his tenure. He was the only fund manager in the United States to win the Morningstar Manager of the Year award for both an equity and a fixed income fund and is tied with one other portfolio manager as having won the most awards. In 1994 Bob won for both FPA Capital and FPA New Income, and in 2001 and 2008 for FPA New Income.</em></div>
<div class="ap-dfp-slot hidden-print dfp-ap-2016-native-in-content-1 " data-dfp-slot-name="/307582875/AP_2016.Native.In_Content_01" data-dfp-slot="1" id="dfp-ap-2016-native-in-content-1" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; clear: right; float: right; margin-left: 10px; width: calc(50% - 10px);">
</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The opinions expressed reflect Mr. Rodriguez’ personal views only and not those of FPA.</em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Dear friends and colleagues,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Though the virus pandemic has been tumultuous, challenging and with little precedence, from a capital market perspective, this market collapse was quite predictable. Capital market excesses became pervasive in ways that were also unprecedented. Zombie companies, corporate operating strategies that elevated financial risk to extreme levels and consumers who also became highly leveraged were the accepted actions of the day. Prudence was an extremely rare virtue. Many times I expressed the opinion that I thought the various equity markets were at least 40-60% over valued. Recent events would tend to confirm my assessment.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Back in 2009, in my Morningstar <a href="https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/FPA-News-Documents/reflections_and_outrage.pdf?sfvrsn=2" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #067aa6; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">speech</a>, and then after I returned from my 2010 sabbatical, I argued that, if we did not get our economic house in order, we would experience a crisis of equal or greater magnitude than the 2008-2009 period and that this would take place after 2017. With the passage of the 2017 omnibus bill and the 2017 tax cut, along with a continuation of unsound and insane monetary policies, this speculative excess period was able to be extended. We knew there would be a pin that would prick this unbelievably speculative bubble but we just didn’t know what it would be. Now we do.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Our economic and financial market systems were not prepared with appropriate “rainy day reserves” to withstand an exogenous shock. Balance sheets were stretched in all economic sectors. The shock to the US economy by the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the beginning of WW2 was more traumatic and of greater magnitude than what we are experiencing now and it would also last longer. However, after 12 years of Depression, the financial system was cleansed of speculative excesses that allowed for a financial re-leveraging of the economy to fight the war. After the carnage was over, the economy was able to grow out of an extreme leverage position. In contrast to then, this is not the case today, given that the economy is already extremely leveraged prior to the onset of the crisis. My worst fears have materialized.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Since 2013, I have been preparing for an economy of monumental excess, where debt and deficits do not appear to matter, along with Fed and other central bank monetary policies that totally distort the fundamental elements of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. With the events of the past three weeks, the perversion and conversion to a dystopian capital market and economic system is virtually complete.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
As for me, with the yesterday’s Fed announcement of unlimited QE and its “will buy or support almost anything,” along with the pending passage of a $2-2.5 trillion stimulus package, this is the end of the capital markets as we have known them. We have now entered unlimited QE and MMT where there is no escape. It is the Roach Motel all over again. In Chairman Bernanke‘s 2010 Washington Post op-ed, he argued that QE would lead to a virtuous economic cycle; therefore, the Fed would eventually be able to exit from its QE operations. I argued that once initiated, a reversal would be impossible. It would be like the Roach Motel, “You can check in, but you cannot check out.”</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
With the initiation of the Fed’s complete takeover and control of the US financial economy, there is now absolutely no accurate pricing discovery in the capital markets and we have entered a period of total manipulation. In light of this, the only markets I have an interest in are those where the heavy hand of government is not involved or only minimally involved. This leads me to rare commodities and collectibles. The public equity and debt markets are now nothing more than greater fool markets that are led by the greatest fools of all, the Fed and the Congress. US capital markets, RIP!</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
</div>
</div>
<div class="ap-content-lazy-loader-page" data-page-number="2" id="page-2" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; overflow: hidden;">
<div class="ap-content-inline-placement-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto; min-height: 0px; min-width: 300px;">
<div class="ap-dfp-slot hidden-print dfp-ap-2016-content-inline-medium-rectangle-2 " data-dfp-slot-name="/307582875/AP_2016.Content.Inline.Medium_Rectangle_02" data-dfp-slot-options="{"sizes":[[160,600],[300,600],[300,250],[728,90],[970,250]],"sizeMap":[[[1520,250],[[728,90],[970,250],[160,600],[300,600],[300,250]]],[[758,250],[[160,600],[300,600],[300,250],[728,90]]],[[300,740],[[160,600],[300,600],[300,250]]],[[300,250],[300,250]]]}" data-dfp-slot="1" id="dfp-ap-2016-content-inline-medium-rectangle-2" style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</div>
</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Despite my having avoided 100% of the market carnage and also being profitable, I have to shed a tear for the passing of a capital market that has benefitted the real and financial economy so well for decades. In 2008, when I wrote, “Crossing the Rubicon,” I argued we had crossed over into a new economic order and system. Little did I know that within twelve short years this transformation would be virtually complete. We have entered into a far more dangerous environment where normal rules of analytics will likely not apply. When everything is essentially socialized as to risk, a return vs risk evaluation is essentially meaningless since the risk side of the equation has been truncated. Over a period of time which I cannot estimate yet, I will continue my preparation for a far different economic and financial environment. Capital deployment strategies will likely have to change from what has been the norm in the post WW2 environment. We are in a New World Order.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
I hope I am wrong in my assessment, but I doubt it.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Good luck,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
Bob</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 1.33em;">
March 24, 2020</div>
</div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-40173461450295589202020-04-07T07:14:00.000-07:002020-04-07T07:14:12.870-07:00Twenty Investment Lessons of 2008 - Seth Klarman<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Below, we highlight <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">the lessons that we believe could and should have been learned from the turmoil of 2008</strong>. Some of them are unique to the 2008 melt-down; others, which could have been drawn from general market observation over the past several decades, were certainly reinforced last year. Shockingly, virtually all of these lessons were either never learned or else were immediately forgotten by most market participants.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<u style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Twenty Investment Lessons of 2008</strong></u></div>
<ol style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; list-style-position: outside; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.75em; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Things that have never happened before are bound to occur with some regularity. </strong>You must always be prepared for the unexpected, including sudden, sharp downward swings in markets and the economy. Whatever adverse scenario you can contemplate, reality can be far worse.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">When excesses such as lax lending standards become widespread and persist for some time, people are lulled into a false sense of security, </strong>creating an even more dangerous situation. In some cases, excesses migrate beyond regional or national borders, raising the ante for investors and governments. These excesses will eventually end, triggering a crisis at least in proportion to the degree of the excesses. Correlations between asset classes may be surprisingly high when leverage rapidly unwinds.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nowhere does it say that investors should strive to make every last dollar of potential profit; consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return. </strong>Conservative positioning entering a crisis is crucial: it enables one to maintain long-term oriented, clear thinking, and to focus on new opportunities while others are distracted or even forced to sell. Portfolio hedges must be in place before a crisis hits. One cannot reliably or affordably increase or replace hedges that are rolling off during a financial crisis.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Risk is not inherent in an investment; it is always relative to the price paid. </strong>Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Indeed, when great uncertainty – such as in the fall of 2008 – drives securities prices to especially low levels, they often become less risky investments.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Do not trust financial market risk models. </strong>Reality is always too complex to be accurately modeled. Attention to risk must be a 24/7/365 obsession, with people – not computers – assessing and reassessing the risk environment in real time. Despite the predilection of some analysts to model the financial markets using sophisticated mathematics, the markets are governed by behavioral science, not physical science.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Do not accept principal risk while investing short-term cash: </strong>the greedy effort to earn a few extra basis points of yield inevitably leads to the incurrence of greater risk, which increases the likelihood of losses and severe illiquidity at precisely the moment when cash is needed to cover expenses, to meet commitments, or to make compelling long-term investments.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The latest trade of a security creates a dangerous illusion that its market price approximates its true value. </strong>This mirage is especially dangerous during periods of market exuberance. The concept of “private market value” as an anchor to the proper valuation of a business can also be greatly skewed during ebullient times and should always be considered with a healthy degree of skepticism.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A broad and flexible investment approach is essential during a crisis. </strong>Opportunities can be vast, ephemeral, and dispersed through various sectors and markets. Rigid silos can be an enormous disadvantage at such times.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">You must buy on the way down. </strong>There is far more volume on the way down than on the way back up, and far less competition among buyers. <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It is almost always better to be too early than too late, but you must be prepared for price markdowns on what you buy.</strong></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Financial innovation can be highly dangerous, though almost no one will tell you this. </strong>New financial products are typically created for sunny days and are almost never stress-tested for stormy weather. Securitization is an area that almost perfectly fits this description; markets for securitized assets such as subprime mortgages completely collapsed in 2008 and have not fully recovered. Ironically, the government is eager to restore the securitization markets back to their pre-collapse stature.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ratings agencies are highly conflicted, unimaginative dupes. </strong>They are blissfully unaware of adverse selection and moral hazard. Investors should never trust them.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Be sure that you are well compensated for illiquidity </strong>– especially illiquidity without control – because it can create particularly high opportunity costs.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">At equal returns, public investments are generally superior to private investments </strong>not only because they are more liquid but also because amidst distress, public markets are more likely than private ones to offer attractive opportunities to average down.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Beware leverage in all its forms. </strong>Borrowers – individual, corporate, or government – should always match fund their liabilities against the duration of their assets. Borrowers must always remember that capital markets can be extremely fickle, and that it is never safe to assume a maturing loan can be rolled over. Even if you are unleveraged, the leverage employed by others can drive dramatic price and valuation swings; sudden unavailability of leverage in the economy may trigger an economic downturn.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Many LBOs are man-made disasters. </strong>When the price paid is excessive, the equity portion of an LBO is really an out-of-the-money call option. Many fiduciaries placed large amounts of the capital under their stewardship into such options in 2006 and 2007.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Financial stocks are particularly risky. </strong>Banking, in particular, is a highly lever- aged, extremely competitive, and challenging business. A major European bank recently announced the goal of achieving a 20% return on equity (ROE) within several years. Unfortunately, ROE is highly dependent on absolute yields, yield spreads, maintaining adequate loan loss reserves, and the amount of leverage used. What is the bank’s management to do if it cannot readily get to 20%? Leverage up? Hold riskier assets? Ignore the risk of loss? In some ways, for a major financial institution even to have a ROE goal is to court disaster.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Having clients with a long-term orientation is crucial. </strong>Nothing else is as important to the success of an investment firm.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">When a government official says a problem has been “contained,” pay no attention.</strong></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The government – the ultimate short- term-oriented player – cannot withstand much pain in the economy or the financial markets. </strong>Bailouts and rescues are likely to occur, though not with sufficient predictability for investors to comfortably take advantage. The government will take enormous risks in such interventions, especially if the expenses can be conveniently deferred to the future. Some of the price-tag is in the form of back- stops and guarantees, whose cost is almost impossible to determine.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Almost no one will accept responsibility for his or her role in precipitating a crisis: </strong>not leveraged speculators, not willfully blind leaders of financial institutions, and certainly not regulators, government officials, ratings agencies or politicians.</li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Lucida Grande, Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.1px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Below, we itemize some of the quite different lessons investors seem to have learned as of late 2009 – false lessons, we believe. To not only learn but also effectively implement investment lessons requires a disciplined, often contrary, and long-term-oriented investment approach. It requires a resolute focus on risk aversion rather than maximizing immediate returns, as well as an understanding of history, a sense of financial market cycles, and, at times, extraordinary patience.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">False Lessons</strong></div>
<div class="ad__wrapper-element" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<aside id="in-content-desktop" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-height: 1px; min-width: 1px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div id="google_ads_iframe_/21841313772/zerohedge/in_content_desktop_0__container__" style="border: 0pt none; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; height: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 1px;">
</div>
</aside></div>
<ol style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; list-style-position: outside; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.75em; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There are no long-term lessons – ever.</strong></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bad things happen, but really bad things do not</strong>. Do buy the dips, especially the lowest quality securities when they come under pressure, because declines will quickly be reversed.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is no amount of bad news that the markets cannot see past.</strong></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If you’ve just stared into the abyss, quickly forget it: </strong>the lessons of history can only hold you back.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Excess capacity in people, machines, or property will be quickly absorbed.</strong></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Markets need not be in sync with one another</strong>. Simultaneously, the bond market can be priced for sustained tough times, the equity market for a strong recovery, and gold for high inflation. Such an apparent disconnect is indefinitely sustainable.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In a crisis, stocks of financial companies are great investments, because the tide is bound to turn</strong>. Massive losses on bad loans and soured investments are irrelevant to value; improving trends and future prospects are what matter, regardless of whether profits will have to be used to cover loan losses and equity shortfalls for years to come.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The government can reasonably rely on debt ratings </strong>when it forms programs to lend money to buyers of otherwise unattractive debt instruments.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The government can indefinitely control both short-term and long-term interest rates</strong>.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The government can always rescue the markets or interfere with contract law whenever it deems convenient with little or no apparent cost. </strong>(Investors believe this now and, worse still, the government believes it as well. We are probably doomed to a lasting legacy of government tampering with financial markets and the economy, which is likely to create the mother of all moral hazards. The government is blissfully unaware of the wisdom of Friedrich Hayek: “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”)</li>
</ol>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-72037814439536495432018-03-24T05:47:00.004-07:002018-03-24T07:47:17.352-07:00Frank K Martin och Vito Maida senaste tankar.<b><a href="https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2018/03/var-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html" target="_blank">https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2018/03/var-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html</a></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;">"16% av alla börsbolag på de amerikanska börserna är sk </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;">zombieföretag</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;">. De kan inte betala räntorna på sina skulder utifrån ens sin vinst före skatter, ränta, avskrivningar och amorteringar (EBITDA), eller om man så vill ungefär kassaflödet. Så dåliga siffror har man tidigare sett </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;">efter</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;"> IT-kraschen eller finanskrisen. Inte </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;">före</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;"> när allt ska vara guld och gröna skogar." (Lars Wilderäng)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ckSZMXjprMik6JVzZo5zS2_xw89uI5UMwS8VVgPDjP02uxdBzxoKW4YA5Ssooi3XJY_sbj7iEefbneaNsnVPTkLtfg0LO3cOoBBMaL5Zn11mEtmGBNf802o2T-_EBflVjiDxOctsBRGV/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="624" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ckSZMXjprMik6JVzZo5zS2_xw89uI5UMwS8VVgPDjP02uxdBzxoKW4YA5Ssooi3XJY_sbj7iEefbneaNsnVPTkLtfg0LO3cOoBBMaL5Zn11mEtmGBNf802o2T-_EBflVjiDxOctsBRGV/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 14.3px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<b>(<a href="https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/977332175258337280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.cornubot.se%2F2018%2F03%2Fvar-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html&tfw_creator=Cornubot&tfw_site=Cornubot" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/977332175258337280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.cornubot.se%2F2018%2F03%2Fvar-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html&tfw_creator=Cornubot&tfw_site=Cornubot</a>)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Vito Maidas, <a href="http://www.patientcapital.com/news" target="_blank">PCM 2017-12</a></b><br />
<br />
"After several years of smooth and steady increases, equity markets
provided a very small dose of realism over the past several weeks. Markets
dropped on several days as investors became concerned about rising
interest rates. While the headlines were quite dramatic, the declines were
small in percentage terms and the markets quickly made up most of their
losses. Given the extreme levels of overvaluation, these drops are not
nearly enough to put companies that meet our standards for value and
quality into our buy range.<br />
<br />
The recent market volatility highlights the risk posed by the rush into
passive investments and automated trading strategies.<b> These strategies
are very similar to the elements that resulted in 1987’s market crash</b>. Back
then, institutional investors believed that they each had a proprietary
computerized system that would automatically get them out of the market
once it started to go down. What they didn’t realize was that everybody
else had a similar program. When the market turned negative, all of the
programs were activated at the same time. It was like a herd of elephants
trying to get through a very small door. The result was Black Monday; a
one day drop in equity prices of 25%.<br />
<br />
<b>Today’s passive investment and automated strategies have the potential to
cause such an event again. The difference this time is that the dollars are
substantially larger and the computers faster and more powerful. Should
an exogenous event such as a political or geopolitical crisis materialize,
these strategies and/or programs could be the “accelerant on the fire”</b>. "<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Frank K Martins brev <a href="https://www.mcmadvisors.com/newsmaterials/" target="_blank">till investerare för 2017</a> (min fetstil)</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">"</span>The fiscal and monetary policy remedies that began in 2008 to prevent a repeat of the 1930s achieved their
stopgap measures, at least temporarily. The subsequent compounding of mispricings, malinvestments, and
other distortions—to say nothing of substandard economic performance and growing instability—leaves us
wondering<b> whether the tin can of inevitable consequences was simply kicked down the road</b>. Returning to
Hayek, we think it not totally unreasonable that the post-2008 intervention may ultimately be remembered as
an “undisputed failure.”<br />
<br />
(...) Further, while consumers are spending more, they also are spending more than they have! Federal Bureau of
Labor Statistics data show that the average U.S. household spent 94% of its 2017 annual income on consumer
goods (including medical expenses) and spent another 10% servicing debt—mortgage and consumer. The math
looks odd, because the resulting expenditures (104%) exceed total income. Considering the 2.4% savings rate,
households outspent their incomes by 6.4%. (Does this sound like any federal government you know?!) That
excess was satisfied by consumer-credit expansion of $551 billion. Comparatively, GDP grew by $513 billion.
Positive consumer sentiment can only drive sustainable economic growth if consumers have sufficient funds
to maintain spending. <b>Whatever growth we see in consumer spending today has largely been bought on credit
that must be repaid tomorrow. Sadly, as noted parenthetically above, profligate Uncle Sam has not set a good
example.
</b><br />
<br />
(...)These are just samples of the problems in the universe of exchange-traded products, but even more complicated
versions exist. Exchange traded notes (ETNs), for example, are packaged derivatives on futures contracts,
wholly reliant on the solvency of the issuer. <b>They are massively leveraged products used to short volatility, a
profitable trade of late, but whose value can disappear overnight should volatility return anywhere close to
historical levels. </b>Such trades were typically the domain of sophisticated investors at specialty hedge funds. They
are now freely available to any investor with a smartphone. This is the exchange-traded product universe.<br />
<br />
Today’s financial markets are quite unlike those from even 10 years past. The current environment has spurred
legion new products, many of which have never encountered a bear market. Quite likely, the weaknesses on
the horizon portend greater flaws still out of sight. <br />
<br />
(...) <b>In this context, the melt-up scenario is much more plausible. Even though a record number of professional
investors believe the market is overvalued, they know they’re on a short leash if they underperform for very
long.
</b><br />
<br />
(...)Finally, and most importantly, is a sense of gratitude I feel toward you, our clients. Few investors would have
passed the Stanford marshmallow test with flying colors the way our clients have, even in spite of me putting
them through the most extreme test of deferred gratification. In the essay, “Why 1925?,” we quoted Ben
Graham as saying that unless an investor had the fierce independence and temerity to step away from the madness in 1925, the chances of surviving the debacle of the Crash12 and the subsequent Great Depression
were 1 in 100.<b> Whatever storms may lie ahead, we ardently believe that our clients will be among those who
survive and thrive. In the greater social context, they will be the ones through their eventual bid who might
prevent a downward market spiral devoid of buyers from disintegrating into social and political chaos.
</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-40580614012771043282017-12-21T14:32:00.001-08:002017-12-22T09:42:58.600-08:00Sverige ett land med allt sämre framtidsutsikter.<b style="background-color: white; color: #282828;">"Nästa generation kommer inte som vi ta emot ett bättre samhälle än de själva ärvde av sina föräldrar och farföräldrar. Väljer vi inte klokt, och under kontrollerade former, riskerar vi lämna över ett samhälle med i allt väsentligt sämre förutsättningar till våra barn och barnbarn än det vi fick." (</b><a href="https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1416615277/efter-sverige-en-bok-om-samhallskontrakt?ref=creator_nav" target="_blank">https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1416615277/efter-sverige-en-bok-om-samhallskontrakt?ref=creator_nav</a>)<br />
<br />
"See I am not a monster, I am just ahead of the curve"<br />
<br />
----------------<br />
<br />
<b>Bostadsbubblan</b><br />
Nedanstående låt bjuder på högkvalitativ humor.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/VylFH07T4Ew/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VylFH07T4Ew?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VylFH07T4Ew" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VylFH07T4Ew</a><br />
<br />
Personligen hoppas jag på en jävla smäll och att en hel generation blir utplånad finansiellt av att fastighetspriserna kraschar. Personligen tror jag det bästa vore om systemet återställdes, även om detta skulle va en plågsam process. Dock har jag ett egenintresse i att fastighetspriserna sjunker tillbaka något, vilket förstås influerar mina förhoppningar. I någon meningar grundar sig nog delvis Sveriges problem i betydande överflöd, vilket märks i och med att diverse pseudovetenskap finansieras.<br />
<br />
<br />
<img height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr73O3000R27FVSNlYWUAiBwWbW8AabpuMb6tu6eWkK1SGj9XgAYO2uxIx1z52hz7TXnLDKzLVVPQYDQ6yK0tn5G_Yh3eBpLf62fXoLDtZ-Z_sRVgkXuDx-hjNZjjaOi88ouJZoYxx7Dzx/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="404" /><br />
<br />
(<i>genusvetenskap är pseudovetenskap och är man intresserad av riktig vetenskap rekommenderas <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8f-fpSOks" target="_blank">Germund Hesslow</a>. I Germunds redogörelse åskådliggör han även genetikens betydelse för karaktärsegenskaper såsom intelligens. </i><i>Detta kan förstås även kallas för "common sense", men som alla vet är "common sense not so common".</i>)<br />
<br />
Tyvärr för politiker framförallt signalpolitik i de flesta sakfrågor och ett bra exempel på detta är den nya samtyckeslagstiftningen. Istället för att diskutera orsaken (<a href="http://www.friatider.se/gigantisk-databas-ver-invandrares-brott-sajten-polisanm-ls" target="_blank">invandringen</a>) till den ökande mängden våldtäkter drivs symbolpolitik kring en ny sexuallagstiftning.<br />
<br />
Hela skiten hade varit komiskt om inte allt i detta landet varit så fruktansvärt misskött.<br />
<br />
<b>Det progressiva samhällsförfallet</b> kännetecknas av små negativa förändringar som ej märks år över år, men som kumulativt leder till en starkt negativ förändring för populationen i landet. Det progressiva samhällsförfallet har tidigare drabbat järnvägen, äldreomsorgen, försvaret och har nu nått polisen. <a href="https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/polisen-hinner-inte-med-valdtakter-pa-grund-av-mord" target="_blank">Polisen hinner idag inte utreda våldtäkter på grund av alla mord som sker när invandrare skjuter ihjäl varandra.</a><br />
<br />
<div data-reactid="68" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Publik, Helvetica, Arial, "Nimbus Sans L", "Bitstream Vera Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.44444; margin-bottom: 16px;">
"En utredning som gäller en 12-årig flicka som misstänks ha våldtagits av en äldre kille i Stenungsund hade inte kommit någon vart efter sex veckor, trots att polisen hade ett namn på den som tros ha våldtagit flickan.</div>
<div data-reactid="69" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Publik, Helvetica, Arial, "Nimbus Sans L", "Bitstream Vera Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.44444; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Och det finns fler exempel.</div>
<div data-reactid="70" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Publik, Helvetica, Arial, "Nimbus Sans L", "Bitstream Vera Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.44444; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Tidigare i år filmade två män när de våldtog en kvinna och publicerade videon i appen Snapchat. En annan person sparade ned filmen där våldtäktsmännen syns tydligt och händelsen polisanmäldes, men tipsaren hördes inte förrän efter två månader. Männen dömdes så småningom."</div>
<a href="https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kraftig-okning-av-unga-som-soker-hjalp-efter-valdtakt/" target="_blank">https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kraftig-okning-av-unga-som-soker-hjalp-efter-valdtakt/</a><br />
<br />
Inte ens med avseende på BNP kan situationen ansetts ha blivit mycket bättre, utan även här kan man notera det progressiva samhällsförfallet. Nedan från <a href="http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/12/eurostat-sverige-har-blivit-fattigare.html" target="_blank">Cornucopia</a>:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "open sans" , "freesans" , "arial" , "helvetica"; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">"Eurostats statistik visar att Sverige har blivit fattigare per capita jämfört med övriga EU. Köpkraftsjusterat (PPS) har svensk BNP per capita fallit jämfört med övriga EU sedan toppen på konjunkturtoppen 2007. Detta trots Magdalena Anderssons (s) uttalanden om att svensk ekonomi går som en Volvo S90 och att vi ska vara på en konjunkturtopp nu."</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWYvyqzfSWX1OFN-mySmr0-EI8ycjb8Atl3d10ckH-3pGH-xIOe_XwUtCS2Da92i4hEjrZPBhbkZflNsdk58yr1vm1L-tl0AYJq_UxallSDSsAWD7ZJlqNWgjwZJiDi3eSNJGyyBzCiBqS/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="536" data-original-width="916" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWYvyqzfSWX1OFN-mySmr0-EI8ycjb8Atl3d10ckH-3pGH-xIOe_XwUtCS2Da92i4hEjrZPBhbkZflNsdk58yr1vm1L-tl0AYJq_UxallSDSsAWD7ZJlqNWgjwZJiDi3eSNJGyyBzCiBqS/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>I någon mening bör folk fråga sig vad det är vi ämnar göra med detta landet? Vad är det vi vill uppnå? Ska vi bara vara en geografisk avgränsning där varje individ ser till sitt eget bästa? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Johan Westerholm beskrev situationen bra i crowdfundingen till en ny bok:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>(min fetstil nedan)</i></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #282828; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 3rem; margin-bottom: 3rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">"Det svenska samhällskontraktet är under förändring. Men utan någon egentlig diskussion. Vi befinner oss, inom en snar framtid, vid en punkt där vi måste välja väg, ett val där vi som samhälle måste hantera en rad målkonflikter som blivit akuta. Utvecklingen är inte ny, den började egentligen för mer än 30 år sedan men har forcerats på grund av de senaste årens okontrollerbara befolkningsökning. Vi hade, även utan migrationen 2011-2015 hamnat i denna situation förr eller senare. De senaste årens migration har bara forcerat behovet av att göra ett val för nästa generation.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #282828; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 3rem; margin-bottom: 3rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Nästa generation kommer inte som vi ta emot ett bättre samhälle än de själva ärvde av sina föräldrar och farföräldrar. Väljer vi inte klokt, och under kontrollerade former, riskerar vi lämna över ett samhälle med i allt väsentligt sämre förutsättningar till våra barn och barnbarn än det vi fick." (</b></span><a href="https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1416615277/efter-sverige-en-bok-om-samhallskontrakt?ref=creator_nav" style="background-color: transparent;" target="_blank">https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1416615277/efter-sverige-en-bok-om-samhallskontrakt?ref=creator_nav</a><span style="background-color: transparent;">)</span></div>
<u>"See I am not a monster, I am just ahead of the curve"</u><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<i>(Parentes nedan)</i><br />
<br />
<b>Bitcoin, förmodligen den största manin sedan IT-bubblan</b><br />
<br />
<div class="st__content-block st__content-block--text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #141414; font-family: "Neue Helvetica W01", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.125;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.65rem;">
Bitcoin mining's energy use is <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-mining-track-consume-worlds-energy-2020-744036" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 224, 232); box-sizing: border-box; color: #005c9c; line-height: 1.125; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.15s ease-out;">reportedly growing</a> at a rate of 25% per month. At that rate of growth, it will consume as much electricity as the US in 2019.</div>
</div>
<div class="st__content-block st__content-block--text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #141414; font-family: "Neue Helvetica W01", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.125;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.65rem;">
And by 2020, bitcoin mining could be consuming the same amount of electricity every year as is currently used by the entire world.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.65rem;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/goog_2039055304"><br /></a></div>
</div>
<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/bitcoin-consume-more-power-than-world-2020?utm_content=buffer4a665&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/bitcoin-consume-more-power-than-world-2020?utm_content=buffer4a665&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer</a>Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-38411671318235729312017-11-05T10:12:00.002-08:002017-11-05T10:19:15.057-08:00Vad sker på fastighetsmarknaden? Är slutet nära?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" /></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">”</span><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">What sustains and supports the value of residential real estate is, among other things, unblinking faith. “House prices don`t fall” is not so much an economic assertion as a theological one. Our grandparents or great grandparents would be astonished to hear it. Their own experience taught them that house prices, on average, don`t rise” </i><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">(James Grant</span><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">, Mr Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">, s 160)'</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Har kommit "oroande tecken" på fastighetsmarknaden den senaste tiden där man bland annat kunnat se abrupta fall i <a href="http://puu.sh/ycfQJ/7010952b62.png" target="_blank">Malmö </a>och <a href="http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/11/husmask-lagsta-lagenhetspriserna-i.html" target="_blank">Stockholm</a>. Det är inga små fall utan det handlar om uppåt 15%. Dock ska det tilläggas att försäljningen varit liten och <b><u>det som är intressant är framförallt den fortsatta utvecklingen kommande halvåret.</u></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Det är alltså för tidigt att <b><u>säga något</u></b> definitivt och man får följa upp och se den fortsatta utvecklingen. Vid ett större långvarigt fall är implikationerna oerhörda och Sverige skulle vid ett större fall (-35%) gå in i en av de värsta, eller kanske till och med värsta krisen, sedan 1930-talet.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
För de som haft ögon att se med har det varit tämligen uppenbart hur detta kommer sluta på sikt och jag skrev om detta för några år sedan:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2014/06/bostadspriserna-och-skuldernas.html" target="_blank">http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2014/06/bostadspriserna-och-skuldernas.html</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Jag betona förstås i inlägget ovissheten och att det förmodligen skulle ta väldigt många år innan några problem uppstod. Därför är jag skeptisk till om vi verkligen skulle redan ha sett slutet nu på fastighetsbubblan. Min ödmjuka åsikt är att det förmodligen krävs högre ränta, högre amortering eller en recession för att sätta stoppa på eländet.......</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Tino Sanandaji, en av få nationalekonomer som faktiskt tillför nytta till samhället, beskriver situationen bäst:<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #353535; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 20px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">"Sverige har under det senaste decenniet byggt upp ett skuldberg. <a href="https://www.riksgalden.se/sv/omriksgalden/statsskulden/Sveriges-statsskuld-oversikt/Historik-i-diagram/" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Statsskulden</a> är förhållandevis låg på 1.200 miljarder kronor, ca 30 procent av BNP. Däremot har den privata sektorn – dvs hushållen och företagen – kraftigt ökat sina skulder så att Sveriges privata skuldsättning nu är <a href="https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2016/03/27/the-seven-countries-most-vulnerable-to-a-debt-crisis/&refURL=https://www.google.se/&referrer=https://www.google.se/" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">bland de högsta i världen</a>. Tidigare i år passerade den privata sektorns <a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">skulder</a> 10.000 miljarder kr, en fördubbling på drygt tio år, utan att milstolpen fick någon uppmärksamhet.<br /><br />Detta har skett parallellt med en expanderande bostadsbubbla underblåst av nytryckta pengar. Andra orosmoln inkluderar finansieringsgap i kommunsektorn, resursbrist i välfärden, överbelastning i vården, urgröpt pensionssystem samt inte minst det växande utanförskapet bland dem med utländsk bakgrund.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #353535; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 20px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">De systemrisker som överbelåning medför har uppmärksammats av bland andra <a href="https://www.svd.se/riksbanken-varnar-okande-skulder-ett-hot" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">riksbankschefen</a>. Trots detta påstås att det går fantastiskt för Sverige och att Sverige har en urstark ekonomi. Anders Borg <a href="https://www.di.se/artiklar/2011/1/19/borg-sverige-ar-europas-tigerekonomi/" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">konstaterade</a> med en zoologisk metafor att ”Sverige är nu Europas tigerekonomi”, medan Magdalena Andersson <a href="https://www.di.se/nyheter/magdalena-andersson-svensk-ekonomi-ar-urstark/" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">använde</a> en liknelse från motorvärlden ”Svensk ekonomi är urstark, går lika bra och snabbt som en nyproducerad Tesla”.<br /><br />Denna överdrivna bild har ofta okritiskt upprepats av pressen. Aftonbladet <a href="https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/K5rwM/sluta-oroa-dig-det-gar-hur-bra-som-helst-for-sverige" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">uppmanar</a> sina läsare ”Lägg champagnen på is” och skriver ”Sluta oroa dig – det går hur bra som helst för Sverige”, medan Expressen tidigare har <a href="https://www.expressen.se/dinapengar/sverige-i-topp---bast-av-varldens-ekonomier/" rel="noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #2752ff; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">kallat</a> Sverige ”bäst av världens ekonomier”.<br /><br />Det går dock inte särskilt bra för Sverige. Tillväxt av BNP per capita har legat och förväntas även närmaste åren ligga under sitt historiska genomsnitt. De till synes starka tillväxtsiffrorna som saluförs innehåller i själva verket luft i form av en flyktingdriven befolkningsökning. Det är resurser per person som avgör länders välfärd och privata köpkraft, inte dess folkmängd. Nationens välstånd mäts därför med BNP per invånare. Trots att detta tillhör allmänbildningen och lärs ut i skolan började Alliansregeringen i smyg att exkludera BNP per invånare mått ur statsbudgeten – vilket jag var först med att uppmärksamma. Detta är ett av många tricks som används för att kamouflera den svaga tillväxten." (Tino Sanandaji)</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<i>Lägg märke till att historiskt (<1990) följde fastighetspriserna någorlunda inflationen. Sedan uppstod episoden med avsågade centralbankirer och total ansvarslöshet. Liknande graf kan ses om man betraktar den amerikanska fastighetsmarknaden.</i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbKK_uFgsjAPdtH059DBWN_5w9ktdpo8LRwYCLnPSwWZML4l_Hmhemt4eAt0ceIHqabHAA3-Arys_jPfQqSFWhGwxpc5Kx2gmIQjm-CNEM1TJfSQpu6hSMyU-oYy0H7c1FNjRCfYuUY1Qe/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="1043" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbKK_uFgsjAPdtH059DBWN_5w9ktdpo8LRwYCLnPSwWZML4l_Hmhemt4eAt0ceIHqabHAA3-Arys_jPfQqSFWhGwxpc5Kx2gmIQjm-CNEM1TJfSQpu6hSMyU-oYy0H7c1FNjRCfYuUY1Qe/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<a href="https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/2079803541/tio-tusen-miljarder-lanekalas-i-folkhemmet?ref=email" target="_blank">https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/2079803541/tio-tusen-miljarder-lanekalas-i-folkhemmet?ref=email</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Att ingen politiker tagit ansvar och försökte sätta hinder för detta är så ansvarslöst och kortsiktigt att man närmast borde återinföra dödsstraffet.<br />
<br />
Stefan Ingves var länge en röst som propagerade för reson och ansvarstagande när det kom till fastighetsmarknaden. Men i samband med att han vägrade sänka räntan började en del politiker och framförallt obegåvade nationalekonomer ifrågasätta riksbankens beslut att inte sänka räntan. Dessa individer anser att inflationsmålet bör stå över allt annat och att det är fel om man som centralbank inte maxar tillväxten (skuldtillväxten) för ett land enskilda år.<br />
<br />
Istället för att ta ansvar och riskera sin position som centralbankschef valde Ingves att kasta in handduken, detta agerande är i mina ögon oförlåtligt. Ingves försöker förstås gardera sig inför en eventuell fastighetskrasch med att utfärda diverse "varningar" om bostadspriserna. I mina ögon är Ingves inget annat än en tjänsteman som svek sitt uppdrag och jag hoppas innerligt att han går ner i historien på detta sätt.<br />
<br />
Med tanke på mitt uttalande om<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/09/har-implosionen-i-bitcoin-anlant.html" target="_blank"> Bitcoin för </a>någon månad sedan så får man bara konstatera ödmjukt att timing är oerhört svårt. Fastighetsbubblan i Sverige är till skillnad från bitcoin ingen traditionell mani och därför är det omöjligt att säga något förrän fastighetspriser börjat vända ner rejält. Om man dock inte bevakar bostadsmarknaden det kommande året är man en dåre.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">"Vad man ytterst bör diskutera är om utvecklingen som skett de senaste 15 år på bostadsmarknaden och i hushållens skuldsättning är rimlig? Är det rimligt att huspriser och skuldsättning ökar med 5-6% mer än inflation under en så pass lång tid, när historiskt fastighetspriserna ungefär gått likt inflationen? Är det rimligt att man kunnat belåna hela bostaden i Sverige och ovanpå det ta amorteringsfria lån? När väl de amorteringsfria lånen löper ut, kommer hushållen klara av chocken på privat ekonomin när lånet skall betalas tillbaka? Är det rimligt att amorteringstakten ligger på 148 år vilket skulle innebära att våra barnbarn betalar av det sista på de lånen vi tar idag? När blir en skuldökningstakt orimlig om en ökningstakt om 5-6% över inflationen ej är det?" (</span><a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2014/06/bostadspriserna-och-skuldernas.html" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" target="_blank">tidigare inlägg)</a><br />
<br />
Ytterst bör man fråga sig vad konsekvenser blir för Sveriges ekonomi när alla är så upplånade och saknar sparande att de inte kan ta risken och starta något företag?<br />
<br />
Frågan är om inte människor ytterst styrs av incitament och med nollräntor vad är det som verkligen uppmuntras att man gör i samhället?<br />
<br />
Spara pengar och leva inom sina medel? Eller ska man istället "investera" i en fastighet genom att gjuta fast en riskokare i köket (<b>du vet vem du är</b>). Kan det vara så att tillväxten i en ekonomi kan drivas upp kortsiktigt genom skuldtillväxt (10-15 år), men att detta sker på bekostnad av felallokering i ekonomin långsiktigt?<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify;">Finally, we must question the morality of Fed programs that trick people (as if they were Pavlov's dogs) into behaviors that are adverse to their own long-term best interest. What kind of government entity cajoles savers to spend, when years of under-saving and overspending have left the consumer in terrible shape? What kind of entity tricks its citizens into paying higher and higher prices to buy stocks? What kind of entity drives the return on retirees' savings to zero for seven years (2008-2015 and counting) in order to rescue poorly managed banks? Not the kind that should play this large a role in the economy." (Seth Klarman, Q3 2012 Shareholder Letter)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"If economics were a hard science like chemistry, you’d mix a little of this with a bit of that and the concoction would lead to strong economic growth, full employment, rising home prices, buoyant financial markets, and low inflation every time. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: red;">But economics is a soft science, and real life simply doesn’t work so predictably. Though economists might wish otherwise, economics is, at its core, behavioral.</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> Modern economies are too complex to be reliably modeled; their connections and correlations are lose and imprecise, the second- and third-order effects largely immeasurable the fickle vagaries of individual and aggregate human behavior utterly unknowable.</span><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: red;">Put an economist in a powerful government job and provide levers that can be pulled to start the printing presses, set reserve requirements, fiddle with the Fed funds rate, expand the Fed’s balance sheet, and deliver indecipherable communiqués, and that economist will feel compelled to pull those levers.</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> He or she, like a monkey with a typewriter, might even give us Shakespeare (or Adam Smith) on occasion. But mostly that economist will spout gibberish, a mélange of untested and potentially counterproductive measures that unleash all manner of unintended consequences." (Seth Klarman, 2012 letter) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span>Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-83198411462562345282017-10-01T07:16:00.000-07:002017-10-01T07:29:01.714-07:00Durocs årsredovisning 2017, Gyllenhammar vid rodret!<br />
Premiss för investering ses <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html" target="_blank">bäst i detta inlägget,</a> som enklast kan sammanfattas enligt nedan:<br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">"Med andra ord kan investeringen sammanfattas med:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">In Gyllenhammar and familjen Stillström we trust</b><br />
<b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><u style="font-style: italic;">Caveat Emptor "</u><a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html" target="_blank">(Inlägg 2017-04-13)</a></span><br />
<br />
<b>Risker: </b><br />
<b>Resultatet kan fluktuera rejält mellan enskilda kvartal och år på grund av:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Dollarn</b></li>
<li><b>Priset på insatsvaror i IFG. </b></li>
<li><b>Samt konjunkturen, där exempelvis en betydande kund är fordonsindustrin i stort</b></li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>I nedanstående tabell kan man </b><b>se</b><b> (vad jag förmodar är) dollarns inverkan på resultatet.</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>proforma räkning för tidigare Duroc + IFG</i></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju2y4nVEXl8jcG3U6PZGB3n-FzmsXNjq-g9t13ybuBR_V0pPNyUCbeyR6vNHTzsdMUOOVYP_mJdFlIM2tRQcL9Utx44xwge2T2c4E8SGfV5ZffhcbeMr2BIdrtYNYDHiYKOmbmKpHPK-v7/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="843" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju2y4nVEXl8jcG3U6PZGB3n-FzmsXNjq-g9t13ybuBR_V0pPNyUCbeyR6vNHTzsdMUOOVYP_mJdFlIM2tRQcL9Utx44xwge2T2c4E8SGfV5ZffhcbeMr2BIdrtYNYDHiYKOmbmKpHPK-v7/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Ovanpå detta kvarstår osäkerhet rörande det faktiska resultatet Duroc genererar efter "förvärvet" av IFG. Osäkerheten är påtaglig på grund av diverse engångskostnader och den redovisningstekniska period som följt det omvända förvärvet.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Dessa risker går inte att kontrollera för och bäddar därför för volatilitet i framtiden, detta bör man därför inse som aktieägare.) </b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Durocs resultat:</b><br />
På grund av att det omvända förvärvet blir det finansiella läget förhållande svårt att uttyda. I samband med att Duroc initialt förvärvade IFG så gjorde jag en grov uppskattning för koncernens resultat 2016:<br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">"Efter sammanslagningen av Duroc och IFG finns </span><a href="https://www.avanza.se/placera/pressmeddelanden/2017/02/15/duroc-kommunik-fran-durocs-extrastamma-den-15-februari-2017.html" style="background-color: white; color: #888888; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">39 miljoner</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> aktier och vid en aktiekurs om 23 kr blir det sammanlagda bolagsvärdet cirka 900 miljoner kronor. Justerat för engångsposterna i Duroc och IFG genererade den sammanslagna koncernen en vinst om 104 miljoner kronor före skatt och 81 miljoner kronor efter skatt (22% bolagsskatt)" (</span><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.2px;"><a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html" target="_blank">http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html</a>)</span></span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">P/e= 900/81= 11-12</span><br />
<br />
<br />
Uppskattning får anses varit förhållandevis god även om resultatet för 2017 tycks bli mindre än vad jag initialt uppskattade. I Durocs årsredovisning (s 11) syns en ny proforma räkning och där erhålls ett resultat efter skatt på 70 m sek.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoR23ZpMZOtP-zbSiRj5z8lHNRVMe7XyDDS9KcHd0w6eEV9PyS4cn67uadsSZ4ljbfib0qTIlkJbNJWQXZA6IzuzN2hX4zVJP4ykNy2PEtDdsXYPQ9xv_zm047TuU2RAjwQ1W2R1Qr9pV/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="237" data-original-width="567" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoR23ZpMZOtP-zbSiRj5z8lHNRVMe7XyDDS9KcHd0w6eEV9PyS4cn67uadsSZ4ljbfib0qTIlkJbNJWQXZA6IzuzN2hX4zVJP4ykNy2PEtDdsXYPQ9xv_zm047TuU2RAjwQ1W2R1Qr9pV/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<i>Rörelseresultat före avskrivningar och nedskrivningar: 137,8 </i><br />
<i>Avskrivning för halvåret 2017 extrapolerat på helår: 39</i><br />
<i>räntekostnader för halvåret 2017 extrapolerat på helår: 10</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>(137,8-39-10)*0.78= 70</i><br />
<br />
Övertid blir förmodligen skattesatsen något högre än 22% (not 12 årsredovisningen).<br />
<br />
<b>Goda nyheter i samband med rapport</b><br />
Duroc genomförde nyligen ett nytt förvärv av bolaget BonarAgro, som kommer tas upp i koncernen inför innevarande året. BonarAgro omsätter drygt 192 miljoner, med en god prognostiserad tillväxt. BonarAgro bör därför enskilt öka omsättningen för koncernen med 8,5% och förhoppningsvis även resultat med en likartad procentenhet.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_-jr-F-X2n97ww-GuFuoUGUsDAwJ7KLp_dI6DH6fs4fFnmjGrglroagyIFZjfuQYDnTKtpuUwm2PKja_sfnHVcUupw6yIr0C7yyP4IEs2kRsFJdjuEwN99ySokzf2fAvJk_1h5w5sD4E/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="160" data-original-width="585" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_-jr-F-X2n97ww-GuFuoUGUsDAwJ7KLp_dI6DH6fs4fFnmjGrglroagyIFZjfuQYDnTKtpuUwm2PKja_sfnHVcUupw6yIr0C7yyP4IEs2kRsFJdjuEwN99ySokzf2fAvJk_1h5w5sD4E/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Andra goda nyheter:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmAn8gSjz4SDOIVAwGlgU-ttXEV3yV48i_Lqup05un1TdViBJ_cStT2nJLHD_E_hMcZt72Rj237cFHBbvdBx7_QNsTqMIGXraQij8dQHzx1AMNjyBi2hbxuD0RjmDH642TMnvay9JYq7Mb/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="560" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmAn8gSjz4SDOIVAwGlgU-ttXEV3yV48i_Lqup05un1TdViBJ_cStT2nJLHD_E_hMcZt72Rj237cFHBbvdBx7_QNsTqMIGXraQij8dQHzx1AMNjyBi2hbxuD0RjmDH642TMnvay9JYq7Mb/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0NIESxgjLu8KkH9gthoWS6d2eMyuhQ25hqDVYx3LfZdoRHS6vKkfe_sIF02kTnXsOXWm_5rjowl-GzzSsMgiUPusfEJoRRM15oPEJeWBmXz_91v6DXZ7MSZ_LCKmamO1PPxdiwDPIZJOx/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="42" data-original-width="648" height="40" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0NIESxgjLu8KkH9gthoWS6d2eMyuhQ25hqDVYx3LfZdoRHS6vKkfe_sIF02kTnXsOXWm_5rjowl-GzzSsMgiUPusfEJoRRM15oPEJeWBmXz_91v6DXZ7MSZ_LCKmamO1PPxdiwDPIZJOx/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<b>Ägarstruktur</b><br />
Ägarstrukturen är nog den bästa jag sett i ett noterat bolag. Gyllenhammar och familjen Stillström slår ihop sitt kunnande, med intentionen att vidareutveckla verksamheten och förvärva bolag.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVLmFr66fxS8lwjj3M6dnRV5TEwGYkVCMhRQiuUMgc9giwm6BPl-lWiyHlhNcxuy6PU_OPgj-6cQQxxvkrA_Cq8WnPYUwVDsTRZnyLVmILewIxHkXfMLxp0cDWoJCmkilFbe564q_l-76M/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="848" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVLmFr66fxS8lwjj3M6dnRV5TEwGYkVCMhRQiuUMgc9giwm6BPl-lWiyHlhNcxuy6PU_OPgj-6cQQxxvkrA_Cq8WnPYUwVDsTRZnyLVmILewIxHkXfMLxp0cDWoJCmkilFbe564q_l-76M/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>En bedömning av VD:ns karaktär</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Jag mailade en fråga till VDn i samband med bokslutskommuniken och han svarade att han skulle återkomma i VD-ordet. Det är därför väldigt trevligt att se att VDn håller sitt ord och faktiskt ägnar en del av VD-ordet till detta. VD:ns agerande mot en enskilda obetydlig aktieägare säger mer än något annat om människans karaktär.<br />
<br />
<b>Kan man vara något annat än trygg när man läser styrelseordförande Peter Gyllenhammars ord nedan?</b><br />
<br />
"Styrelsens i Duroc övergripande uppdrag från aktieägarna är att skapa och leverera en god tillväxt i värdet av bolagets aktier. Denna tillväxt skall med Durocs synsätt vara ”reell” – det vill säga grunda sig på ”verkliga värden” (såsom kassaflöden, substans m.m.) snarare än ”förhoppningsvärden” (såsom tron på framtida eventuella kassaflöden, utvecklingsprojekt m.m.).<br />
<br />
Den strategi för tillväxt som implementeras skall grunda sig på en konservativ syn på företagsvärderingar, liksom på finansieringen av förvärv. Vidare skall all verksamhet inom koncernen präglas av god etik och moral, liksom beaktande av hållbarhetsfrågor, befrämjandet av mångfald med mera.<br />
<br />
Det är inte särskilt svårt att kortsiktigt snabbt öka vinsten per aktie i en förvärvsdriven koncern, genom att betala relativt höga köpeskillingar för välskötta bolag, och på den dopade marknaden finansiera dessa förvärv med exempelvis företagsobligationer, vars räntevillkor i många fall alls inte reflekterar den underliggande risk dessa värdepapper representerar. Kalkylerna underlättas därtill av att IFRS-reglerna inte kräver löpande avskrivningar på förvärvad goodwill, regler som i sig förtjänar en diskussion.<br />
<br />
Betalar man i ett förvärv, säg 8 ggr vinst före skatt och finansierar detta med obligationer emitterade till, säg 5% ränta – så stiger givetvis vinst/aktie i det förvärvande bolaget. Men det gör i de flesta fall även den finansiella risken – denna ”förvärvsstrategi” leder ofta till högt belånade balansräkningar, späckade med goodwillposter som inte sällan överstiger det egna kapitalet i bolaget. En schweizerost framstår som homogen och stabil i förhållande till vissa av dessa ”förvärvskoncerner” – och marknadens avkastningskrav (ex.vis uttryckt som PE-tal) borde givetvis återspegla detta, men så är för närvarande inte fallet. Det är svårt att förstå varför en vinstkrona i ett välfinansierat företag, förvärvad till en multipel om, säg 8, plötsligt är värd två kronor, bara för att den trycks in i koncernräkenskaper representerande en hög finansiell risk.<br />
<br />
Duroc avser inte utvecklas till en finansiell schweizerost. Om vårt syfte bara varit att kortsiktigt höja vårt resultat per aktie hade vi redan, till en enligt vårt synsätt alltför hög kostnad och finansiell risk, kunnat lånefinansiera ett antal förvärv av lönsamma företag; tillfällen har inte saknats.<br />
<br />
(...) Förvärv kan avse för Duroc nya sektorer inom industri
och handel, men givetvis också tilläggsförvärv till företag
som redan ingår i koncernen. I det senare fallet skapas
också förutsättningar för ytterligare värdeskapande
genom tillvaratagandet av möjliga synergieffekter.<br />
<br />
(...)Dessa ”recept” för värdeskapande har tillämpats med stor framgång inom Durocs huvudägare Peter Gyllenhammar AB (PGAB). 2010 förvärvade PGAB (vid den tidpunkten benämnt Bronsstädet AB) exempelvis det engelska Chapelthorpe plc, ett negligerat och misskött mini-konglomerat noterat på London-börsen. Efter förvärvet, som betingade i storleksordningen 50 Mkr, implementerade Bronsstädet just en starkt decentraliserad och entreprenöriell organisationsform i det som sedermera fick namnet International Fibers Group. Dotterbolagscheferna gavs stor ”frihet under ansvar” och uppmuntrades att driva sina enheter som om de vore självständiga företag. Givetvis uppmuntrades dock samverkan på frivillig basis, inte minst avseende produktutveckling och investeringar i ny kapacitet. Trots, eller kanske tack vare, stora investeringar i maskinell utrustning liksom i tilläggsförvärv, var IFG vid det nu presenterade bokslutet, skuldfritt och med ett synligt eget kapital om ca 500 Mkr. Avkastningen på detta egna kapital är historiskt tillfredsställande och stabil, och motiverar en värdering överstigande det bokförda värdet.<br />
<br />
Det bör understrykas att den fantastiska avkastning som Chapelthorpe-affären givit, har uppnåtts utan att vare sig det förvärvande eller förvärvade bolaget belånats i syfte att möjliggöra en hävstångseffekt.<br />
<br />
Vi kan givetvis inte utlova att vi framgent hittar nya guldkorn med en sådan potential som den Chapelthorpe erbjöd – men vår förvärvsprocess kommer även framgent att präglas av samma försiktiga syn på värderingar och finansiering av förvärv – jämte ett absolut krav på att sådana transaktioner i sig skall bedömas vara värdeskapande från dag 1.<br />
<br />
Med en skuldfri balansräkning, verksamheter som sammantaget genererar goda resultat och kassaflöden, samt en styrelse och ledning som representerar de kompetensområden som krävs för en framgångsrik implementering av ägardirektiv och strategi – upplever jag att vi är väl förberedda för att fånga upp de möjligheter till opportunistiska affärer som vi ständigt är på jakt efter.<br />
<br />
Peter Gyllenhammar<br />
Styrelsens ordförande "(Ordförande i Duroc, Årsredovisning för halvåret 2017)<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<b>Veckans komiska inslag består av lite allmänt samhällsförfall:</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo-jIpiM42h-fJwwInFiqF6QF8_4SfWZK0yHlSlj4n1bffHbpBO4ELJXe5Galro9cFj_3HkqSgy3mlxYuTC7DWCsRi_SLzjKEfw-XPQJjW_U3ctUitXRdYmrYQowbG30GWsH7crSiEPlhI/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="565" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo-jIpiM42h-fJwwInFiqF6QF8_4SfWZK0yHlSlj4n1bffHbpBO4ELJXe5Galro9cFj_3HkqSgy3mlxYuTC7DWCsRi_SLzjKEfw-XPQJjW_U3ctUitXRdYmrYQowbG30GWsH7crSiEPlhI/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXaHQWWMWR69qYl0oa4CHrycAVpBaD2fKySE28VKhQDOt17rHBQ_v66WXIq6SQkjBpI57-m-c9IVMcWIomn4sO-0JP-T6ittP8BBoaSVUgPJGKOcvuy9c25JBvDa1gQrv4gVjdu38smRXr/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="991" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXaHQWWMWR69qYl0oa4CHrycAVpBaD2fKySE28VKhQDOt17rHBQ_v66WXIq6SQkjBpI57-m-c9IVMcWIomn4sO-0JP-T6ittP8BBoaSVUgPJGKOcvuy9c25JBvDa1gQrv4gVjdu38smRXr/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.adlibris.com/se/bok/farfar-har-fyra-fruar-9789179107543" target="_blank">https://www.adlibris.com/se/bok/farfar-har-fyra-fruar-9789179107543</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-25318685306476569072017-09-15T03:24:00.000-07:002017-09-15T03:25:07.250-07:00Har implosionen i Bitcoin anlänt?<br />
<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/09/kryptomanin-ar-total-och-formodligen.html" target="_blank">http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/09/kryptomanin-ar-total-och-formodligen.html</a><br />
<br />
Vilken skillnad 12 dagar kan göra..... Jag blir personligen imponerad om spekulationen kan lyckas återupptas igen, men vem vet, bara gud.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/" target="_blank">https://www.coindesk.com/price/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0-VKvIF-ZPU7SiMcTvhJerlHY6ZvIqBb2e6ekXKu0P3tPGjPqVqCr2orZShu577D0UWCnCQ1IqJW7LUJZXlMZkKDgEWAMM2yjvLhmGnQZ9wIDYShW7MIxJ5cqFOaXL-covZQ3x8cygYR4/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="1121" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0-VKvIF-ZPU7SiMcTvhJerlHY6ZvIqBb2e6ekXKu0P3tPGjPqVqCr2orZShu577D0UWCnCQ1IqJW7LUJZXlMZkKDgEWAMM2yjvLhmGnQZ9wIDYShW7MIxJ5cqFOaXL-covZQ3x8cygYR4/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FOURTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Something, it matters little what, triggers the ultimate reversal.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FIFTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond by selling or trying to sell. Thus the collapse. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang.</div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-23059151220380573292017-09-03T02:17:00.000-07:002017-09-03T02:24:10.159-07:00kryptomanin är total och förmodligen nära sitt slut<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrF2hb6wmALWkcpY35oeXy1ocWoiPuoyXtzk72kPp-PfDnnHe01oKbNu4uQ9sZABfUrfwnkttcPxl1gRoZAEX8VfwP05CmlIZtvpAf3GZAByP7WFkIwVpWdFkuxZtuNeRAf81UgIDLmcG/s1600/bitcoin.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1116" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrF2hb6wmALWkcpY35oeXy1ocWoiPuoyXtzk72kPp-PfDnnHe01oKbNu4uQ9sZABfUrfwnkttcPxl1gRoZAEX8VfwP05CmlIZtvpAf3GZAByP7WFkIwVpWdFkuxZtuNeRAf81UgIDLmcG/s640/bitcoin.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1DWqCG6_wcdQVjvT5FMM2hf1yicoj8XlJ1tRAtJSUWCm8P_h61rps_3gaRfvDOuIldOPwpK6H0KwxlSJpBjv2097bk8nIdCAOuTJ-LK1e1eFxfAbYKgoRevvhR72-jBUMaKv2_IyRuiTr/s1600/ethereum.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="1015" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1DWqCG6_wcdQVjvT5FMM2hf1yicoj8XlJ1tRAtJSUWCm8P_h61rps_3gaRfvDOuIldOPwpK6H0KwxlSJpBjv2097bk8nIdCAOuTJ-LK1e1eFxfAbYKgoRevvhR72-jBUMaKv2_IyRuiTr/s640/ethereum.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip3J8qG-KOURtIDN_4CygQJkhOuYQC5YzgkLRF_yaQYOmL7Y45keCKh74CDikbNvLyqA6wk5o8aYkyLCx8rHsDtqDglErJIrCTfeczNdXsTf5RmyGFs2YR1pZJfFz8VQjUdNbT8pDeDgQI/s1600/Litecoin.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="886" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip3J8qG-KOURtIDN_4CygQJkhOuYQC5YzgkLRF_yaQYOmL7Y45keCKh74CDikbNvLyqA6wk5o8aYkyLCx8rHsDtqDglErJIrCTfeczNdXsTf5RmyGFs2YR1pZJfFz8VQjUdNbT8pDeDgQI/s640/Litecoin.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFerhAD8jT0WyHPRVwd2-RphpX18wf-Beb0qz9cpYgil_N38Slqvn4N7yFWx_xOp9q9pY0Z5ymPRwtyQBdY06yrcODbly2ZyLYEiCNuVlcyZthFjRdFZCHIxnh_lDyi11XYkNrEIx3zzYg/s1600/Dash.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="901" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFerhAD8jT0WyHPRVwd2-RphpX18wf-Beb0qz9cpYgil_N38Slqvn4N7yFWx_xOp9q9pY0Z5ymPRwtyQBdY06yrcODbly2ZyLYEiCNuVlcyZthFjRdFZCHIxnh_lDyi11XYkNrEIx3zzYg/s640/Dash.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Gick nyligen in på en av få MMA-kanaler som jag följer och förstås sitter snubben och snackar kryptovalutor. Han förespråkar kryptovalutan "Dash" som han anser kommer gå om Bitcoin. Man kan själv hör hans ord mellan<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKpw5Ab4o2I&t=4m50s" target="_blank"> 4.50 och 5.20</a> och även se hur hans ögon lyser när han talar om kryptovalutor. Detta kan inte sluta BRA!<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0000ee;"><u><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKpw5Ab4o2I&t=4m50s" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKpw5Ab4o2I&t=4m50s</a></u></span><br />
<br />
Relativt nyligen träffade jag också en gammal bekant. Denna individ hade förstås fått för sig att stoppa in större delen av sitt kapital i Ethereum och Bitcoin (två kryptovalutor) sedan några månader tillbaka. När man diskutera lite med honom så insåg man ganska snabbt att han hade en "något" idealiserad bild av vad faktiskt dessa kryptovalutor är och vilken funktion de kan fylla, annat än spekulation då.<br />
<br />
Det börjar även dyka upp diverse historier om folk som tjänat otroliga summor på diverse kryptovalutor. Detta kan inte sluta BRA!<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Times, sans-serif; font-size: 19px; margin-bottom: 1em;">
"Bottema told Business Insider Nordic what happened after he went all in on bitcoin.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Times, sans-serif; font-size: 19px; margin-bottom: 1em;">
"I'm not a billionaire yet [in terms of Swedish crowns]," Bottema said, laughing on the phone. "But my capital has grown by a factor of more than one hundred since I sold all my stocks and liquidated my savings in order to buy bitcoins in 2013."" (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-programmer-put-savings-in-bitcoin-will-sell-price-hits-100k-2017-8?r=US&IR=T&IR=T" style="background-color: transparent;" target="_blank">Länk</a>)</div>
Brukar försöka avhålla mig från att försöka säga när diverse tillgångar håller på att toppa, eftersom jag är värdelös på att göra det. Nu tyck dock kryptomanin vara total och slutet är förmodligen nära (6-9 månader bort). Har tidigare försökt peka ut potentiella manier under börsuppgången i <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2015/05/uppgangen-i-kina-ar-manisk.html" target="_blank">Kina </a>(2015) och <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2015/02/manisk-fas.html" target="_blank">OMXS30</a> (2015). När en marknad blir manisk tenderar slutet på idiotin vara nära. <br />
<br />
Dock kan förstås kryptovalutor som Bitcoin gå upp 300% till, men tidshorisonten för hur länge denna bubbla kan lyckas fortsätta att bestå är i min mening relativt kort. Mekanismen bakom "klassiska bubblor" beskrivs nedan relativt väl av Galbraith och får anses vara en varning till de som spekulerar:<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "georgia" , "cambria" , "palatino linotype" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px;"><b><i>FIRST</i></b></span></span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">SECOND</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The more obvious features of the speculative episode are manifestly clear to anyone open to understanding. Some artifact or some development, seemingly new and desirable captures the financial mind or what so passes. The price of the object of speculation goes up. This increase and the prospect attract new buyers; the new buyers assure a further increase. Yet more are attracted; yet more buy; the increase continues. The speculation building on itself provides its own momentum.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">THIRD</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This process, once it is recognized, is clearly evident, and especially so after the fact. So, also, if more subjectively, are the basic attitudes of the participants.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
These take two forms:</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 60px; vertical-align: baseline;">
There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to go up and stay up, perhaps indefinitely. It is adjusting to a new situation, a new world of greatly, even infinitely increasing returns and resulting values.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 60px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally less in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course; They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues; they will be out before the eventual fall.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FOURTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Something, it matters little what, triggers the ultimate reversal.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FIFTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond by selling or trying to sell. Thus the collapse. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">SIXTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
So much is clear. Less understood is the mass psychology of the speculative mood. When it is fully comprehended, it allows those so favored to save themselves from disaster. Given the pressure of this crowd psychology, however, the saved will be the exception to a very broad and binding rule. They will be required to resist two compelling forces: one, the powerful personal interest that develops in the euphoric belief, and, the other, the pressure of public and seemingly superior financial opinion that is brought to bear on behalf of such belief.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">SEVENTH</strong></em></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Contributing to and supporting this euphoria are two further factors little noted in our time or past times. The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory. In consequence, financial disaster is quickly forgotten. In further consequence, when the same or closely similar circumstances occur again, some times in only a few years, they are hailed by a new, often youthful, and always supremely confident generation as a brilliantly innovative discovery. There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“that’s the nature of bubbles, they become mass delusions
of some sort.”(Buffett)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: black;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“As I’ve noted before, the problem
with what we call the Exit Rule for Bubbles – “you only get out if you panic
before everyone else does” – is that you also have to decide whether to look
like an idiot before the crash or an idiot after it.”</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> (Hussman)</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, Cambria, "Palatino Linotype", serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.9333px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-65731178703129819212017-08-20T05:36:00.000-07:002017-08-20T05:40:23.091-07:00Gyllenhammar om manipulerade marknader och Pandoras Q2<div>
<b>Gyllenhammar</b><br />
Delar från <a href="http://pg-ab.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Peter-Gyllenhammar-AB-2016-06-30.pdf" target="_blank">Gyllenhammars årsredovisning </a><a href="http://pg-ab.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Peter-Gyllenhammar-AB-2016-06-30.pdf" target="_blank">(2016-06-30)</a><a href="http://pg-ab.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Peter-Gyllenhammar-AB-2016-06-30.pdf" target="_blank"> följer nedan:</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaaILxCpthAzqQ3Knixcr4D9mN36TINyXQwZb0adoBnLIS6be6nPu4ZHYDf30g5oFef7bUw2GbdHIZwmBgBf21F68VUCX2iuw9eoGVar4fAznESeLK8h_8whrLNnNzkpqMjRj-GuFFh3S7/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="815" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaaILxCpthAzqQ3Knixcr4D9mN36TINyXQwZb0adoBnLIS6be6nPu4ZHYDf30g5oFef7bUw2GbdHIZwmBgBf21F68VUCX2iuw9eoGVar4fAznESeLK8h_8whrLNnNzkpqMjRj-GuFFh3S7/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1arq94yRZNpzYTgjE758ooRaqg8zHm3UoE_B5DobPC78n_etkAQPHUpOTtwAuCH5NS2eoeNwIDSZm8KbuXOkGXQMJlICrLAxuXp5H-DUUqWy7uQzsElKf5Swwnx0vs4B4-NcXrhsjr_US/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="751" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1arq94yRZNpzYTgjE758ooRaqg8zHm3UoE_B5DobPC78n_etkAQPHUpOTtwAuCH5NS2eoeNwIDSZm8KbuXOkGXQMJlICrLAxuXp5H-DUUqWy7uQzsElKf5Swwnx0vs4B4-NcXrhsjr_US/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs4K3LRL9wASXxUhVjwza-wv2Lg4Ao0lTcVpuYbyqn-hbWPzZZ9nVAi2nZAhRAO81NiUPfaZ1pFw87gNzI7MFNP_qXxXUJm6ENqmkBjXLX5ObDWvAa-dhB11S9wwXuBReBXB3wtr8kvO7E/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="268" data-original-width="772" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs4K3LRL9wASXxUhVjwza-wv2Lg4Ao0lTcVpuYbyqn-hbWPzZZ9nVAi2nZAhRAO81NiUPfaZ1pFw87gNzI7MFNP_qXxXUJm6ENqmkBjXLX5ObDWvAa-dhB11S9wwXuBReBXB3wtr8kvO7E/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfZwhGXdQW08-_5FnPAibjni1blhMeMAfSmyMn_jc-f0wfdRY9lHOqopuWYwrHfShu9EGx5uucbf9bUN2Zob5ZyWGCG0DdTQROFJsNVOZhLbdKay-6dlT454vEirCqAtkldX4k7bLGgHnA/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="782" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfZwhGXdQW08-_5FnPAibjni1blhMeMAfSmyMn_jc-f0wfdRY9lHOqopuWYwrHfShu9EGx5uucbf9bUN2Zob5ZyWGCG0DdTQROFJsNVOZhLbdKay-6dlT454vEirCqAtkldX4k7bLGgHnA/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-q-QgS4y-ke2NrQOebF0Fj3yVhKk_CWDDOhCF3Vc1KMzCwNfxzt3mhEZgwSzROgfeuj1OZ5IDZbQKnalmgsdndld0O7wI57-sAGXBLLJRsmJQbR1ZeMkAqL5rGhGKOuN4RciMF_5coM5f/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="238" data-original-width="777" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-q-QgS4y-ke2NrQOebF0Fj3yVhKk_CWDDOhCF3Vc1KMzCwNfxzt3mhEZgwSzROgfeuj1OZ5IDZbQKnalmgsdndld0O7wI57-sAGXBLLJRsmJQbR1ZeMkAqL5rGhGKOuN4RciMF_5coM5f/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWVD0cUbB8yOmFebPgpAwV7NlIA_NqWT134Ws6KWwJ4KspamEeqODRFIaInaOycgFaRb0YXzGDAssI4ShbPNdIY1wZyZT0y0Whm0_nI8hwSDjI7X2eYnKI58fcpTFd-5oK_h36GZ6B1wC/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="765" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWVD0cUbB8yOmFebPgpAwV7NlIA_NqWT134Ws6KWwJ4KspamEeqODRFIaInaOycgFaRb0YXzGDAssI4ShbPNdIY1wZyZT0y0Whm0_nI8hwSDjI7X2eYnKI58fcpTFd-5oK_h36GZ6B1wC/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhLkyNk_RpoHGdd8XGVEFz8ZCP9p70zUCeuUSsAqig2ih75GmtzsSEJvYH71TXBMorReCj-kLjy5lnW0Yx149UgZxOU346lSfbQjWStQtLu7Hv7PHmQFYDIIRTh4zt1gkT3Q0rMhNY3Tmq/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="780" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhLkyNk_RpoHGdd8XGVEFz8ZCP9p70zUCeuUSsAqig2ih75GmtzsSEJvYH71TXBMorReCj-kLjy5lnW0Yx149UgZxOU346lSfbQjWStQtLu7Hv7PHmQFYDIIRTh4zt1gkT3Q0rMhNY3Tmq/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkwqMb5rL21D_kVpZxm-1AisxFWaHPr-x6NEoVCYRoUpAbxcRP28e3HaNM6i1elADHRbcrQcy8cDoo67zfytY-fvs2jIywQwBAP_Y9QuRMeCKLYEd34lDWloVbHCxL9PAwfznU24pCRoOD/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="176" data-original-width="747" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkwqMb5rL21D_kVpZxm-1AisxFWaHPr-x6NEoVCYRoUpAbxcRP28e3HaNM6i1elADHRbcrQcy8cDoo67zfytY-fvs2jIywQwBAP_Y9QuRMeCKLYEd34lDWloVbHCxL9PAwfznU24pCRoOD/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Påminner om Klarmans tankar från några år sedan:<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Someday, the Fed’s show will be off the air and new programming will take its place.</strong> And people will debate just how good it really was. When the show ends, those self-deluded Trumans will be mad as hell and probably broke as well. Hopefully there will be no sequels.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<u style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Someday</strong></u>...</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Someday, financial markets will again decline.</strong> <em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday. Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free. Someday, corporate failure will be permitted. Someday, the economy will turn down again, and someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again come to favor capital preservation over speculation. Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be roughly commensurate with the risk.</em></div>
(...)<strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.</strong><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
Gyllenhammars tankar angående IFG (Duroc):<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNpVFW4lY9SiG7vuMUX60wDGZCnMeKrKbWQcL_gPDGbSoLt3AL9W4W7ZQXU_FZWoIu-hmKojMeO0le60nrfYgbO9VXdMqvnn-H04pNJeHy0U_fQjYi1co_7zC7jfaOO9xE63g37xXuN2JC/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="93" data-original-width="745" height="78" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNpVFW4lY9SiG7vuMUX60wDGZCnMeKrKbWQcL_gPDGbSoLt3AL9W4W7ZQXU_FZWoIu-hmKojMeO0le60nrfYgbO9VXdMqvnn-H04pNJeHy0U_fQjYi1co_7zC7jfaOO9xE63g37xXuN2JC/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>Pandora Q2</b></div>
<div>
Pandora levererar på de flesta punkter som bolaget kan påverka:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
1.</div>
<div>
<b>Situationen i USA förbättrades markant</b> och intäktstappet ser ut att kunna upphöra:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmYHv0Yef_AeqeRD8vlud-W7ojEMIXavwzXiiqWx17tFTXKKmJzXXbMiPi6QABYLp1cU5JW_QKf9yCHkfMJOp7aMbEUtPSTQevu7Weyy9_LAtwpBzzHXFrUwhQ8C6Aq82UwPK6MVip1VMB/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="209" data-original-width="817" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmYHv0Yef_AeqeRD8vlud-W7ojEMIXavwzXiiqWx17tFTXKKmJzXXbMiPi6QABYLp1cU5JW_QKf9yCHkfMJOp7aMbEUtPSTQevu7Weyy9_LAtwpBzzHXFrUwhQ8C6Aq82UwPK6MVip1VMB/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
2.<br />
<b>God tillväxt överlag</b></div>
<div>
Tillväxten i bolaget var 12% i lokal valuta och både EMEA och Asia Pacific imponerade.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Asia Pacific växte 34% och uppgår i dagsläget till 23%. Fortsätter denna marknaden växa med 25% i 2 år kommer Asia Pacific motsvara 29 respektive 36%. Denna marknad kan ensamt komma att driva en stor del av tillväxten.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
3.<br />
<b>Insiders köper mer aktier efter rapport</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3eZE-XuPyQ5B0vnTBc4g1Z5LsXuj1gndGRWEmlEy0ZAhh_mUQ8nyWhJR-XDLtl-Oq8SOGfyEPnke6NlmB2qc0Vc4vRvbDyX8UaTbi4ysXk30rnYJtN4RlcavNT__JaMFmOiPvZfPWfkda/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="193" data-original-width="741" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3eZE-XuPyQ5B0vnTBc4g1Z5LsXuj1gndGRWEmlEy0ZAhh_mUQ8nyWhJR-XDLtl-Oq8SOGfyEPnke6NlmB2qc0Vc4vRvbDyX8UaTbi4ysXk30rnYJtN4RlcavNT__JaMFmOiPvZfPWfkda/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
4.<br />
<b>Andra halvåret bättre med högre marginal</b></div>
<div>
Andra halvåret är starkare för Pandora och bolaget förväntar sig även en högre marginal då.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
5.<br />
<b>Hedgefonden Pandora</b><br />
<br />
<div>
Det som framförallt ställer till det för bolaget är valutan, där DKK har stärkts i förhållande till USD. Detta är förstås ett irritationsmoment, då investeringspremissen i övrigt ser ut att hålla. Det har skett en viss marginalförsämring som inte är valutabaserade, men den hade varit förhållandevis överkomliga om inte valutan gått åt fel riktning. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Det finns förstås slumpmoment som man aldrig kan kontrollera helt när man investerar, det är dock ett oerhört irritationsmoment att lägga över en stor del av investeringens framtid på vad akademikerna vid ECB och FED väljer att hitta på härnäst.<br />
<br />
<br />
Dock förstärks valutasvängningarna av upp och nedvärderingar i Pandoras derivatinstrument. Därför är utvecklingen något bättre än siffrorna gör skäl för.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiffswW8NZmmIUw9g0cVdAtmFxuDpWkoTtEfnjkBBohPrRHwYo7n2jlibZzP_ATKnRZ8Gnm0FAVqudrBl1c-oe-_NewY6zJYNnAPr0yHS0SreTU_qRgmfDjT2MYy5Q67buofIxbrRCjl5Nc/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiffswW8NZmmIUw9g0cVdAtmFxuDpWkoTtEfnjkBBohPrRHwYo7n2jlibZzP_ATKnRZ8Gnm0FAVqudrBl1c-oe-_NewY6zJYNnAPr0yHS0SreTU_qRgmfDjT2MYy5Q67buofIxbrRCjl5Nc/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMPqJ6GpHtVO3TgxUujcav2DSsKeDlDXQiQFRDagxM8Aui0v-Bpw_8cvlPRGPkuuVWT6IAxSpxk6Hu-KCGQklr1PLk8N9iX4flpWUN-cZCqPqfuOoQ5jLyZzwWCklpKtR-mqrfmalAsHUs/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a>Betraktar man nedanstående bild ser man att under Q2 så var "operating profit" likartad för Pandora mellan 2016 och 2017. Dock bidrog hedgefond delen av Pandora ("finance cost/income") till en utökad skillnad i resultatet efter skatt för Q2.<br />
<br />
<i>Resultaträkning för Pandora under Q2 2017. Notera "operating profit", "finansiella kostnaderna" samt netto resultatet.</i></div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk6KKMlx86b-cGlkY2YxhYJvP9HhqmzaPkO_cKIPc-_sUDfKY7CxWQ1tpQ9PY1kDQzzMd1BSI1iNILXWMhw0qmpkQyCsXtU3As9pygY_MN83ussdDAZVVgMgxukvQgjmal2ed7-QxvcaBJ/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="548" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk6KKMlx86b-cGlkY2YxhYJvP9HhqmzaPkO_cKIPc-_sUDfKY7CxWQ1tpQ9PY1kDQzzMd1BSI1iNILXWMhw0qmpkQyCsXtU3As9pygY_MN83ussdDAZVVgMgxukvQgjmal2ed7-QxvcaBJ/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<br />
Om man betraktar årsredovisningen för Pandora 2016 framgår det att "finance cost" och "finance income" i stor utsträckning består av diverse värdeförändringar i derivatinstrument.<br />
<br />
<i>Värdeförändringar i derivatinstrument år 2015 och år 2016</i><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMPqJ6GpHtVO3TgxUujcav2DSsKeDlDXQiQFRDagxM8Aui0v-Bpw_8cvlPRGPkuuVWT6IAxSpxk6Hu-KCGQklr1PLk8N9iX4flpWUN-cZCqPqfuOoQ5jLyZzwWCklpKtR-mqrfmalAsHUs/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="879" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMPqJ6GpHtVO3TgxUujcav2DSsKeDlDXQiQFRDagxM8Aui0v-Bpw_8cvlPRGPkuuVWT6IAxSpxk6Hu-KCGQklr1PLk8N9iX4flpWUN-cZCqPqfuOoQ5jLyZzwWCklpKtR-mqrfmalAsHUs/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Positionsförändring:</b><br />
Halverade min position i Pandora i samband med "uppstudsen" efter rapporten. Har som regel att minska positioner om inte första katalysatorn gör så att aktien går i rätt riktning. Har historiskt tjänat mig relativt väl och fortsätter därför med den principen.<br />
<br />
Sålde mina negativa positioner mot USD (USD/Sek) och bytat ut dessa mot lite Xact bear, har dock inte fångat mycket av börsfallet med Xact Bear. De negativa positionerna är spekulativa och tenderar att säljas snabbt om saker och ting går i fel riktning. Även om jag inte ser ett fortsatt större börsfall som exceptionellt sannolikt så vill jag minska exponeringen något mot börsen.<br />
<br /></div>
Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-17605763781769193782017-08-01T15:05:00.000-07:002017-08-01T15:15:34.742-07:00Resultatet av migrationspolitiken allt mer tydligt<b>(<i>Detta är ett sådant där rasistiskt inlägg som återkommer med jämna mellanrum på bloggen. Om man är känslig så kan man läs<a href="http://www.kalleanka.se/produkter/kalle-anka-pocket/" target="_blank">a något på en mer lämplig nivå</a>, samt återkomma senare. Jag skriver om det jag tycker är intressant för då går inläggen snabbt att skriva. På börsen är det intet nytt förutom att riskerna är förstås relativt stora och dollarn kan komma att ha stor inverkan. <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/07/durocs-senaste-forvarv-bekraftar.html" target="_blank">Därav har jag köpt en mindre negativ position mot dollarn som hedge, framgår i tidigare inlägg.</a> </i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><i>Föredrar man att läsa om börsen så rekommenderar jag starkt Howard Marks senaste</i></b><b><i> "<a href="https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/there-they-go-again-again.pdf" target="_blank">memo</a>", där han uppmuntra till allmän försiktighet kring börsen.</i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><i>Annars på börsen intet nytt.)</i></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b><b>2 decennier av felaktig invandringspolitik ger först sitt resultat nu. Samhället är som sagt robust och en felaktig policy kan drivas väldigt långt innan samhället börjar ta märkbar skada. Samma sak kan sägas kring västvärldens monetära politik (primärt USAs) som varit felaktig i snart 20 år och än så länge endast lett till några år av recession. </b><br />
<br />
En polare som av någon anledning är bosatt i Värmland, där ingen sund människa vill bo, har till och med börjat detektera problem i sitt närområde.<br />
<br />
<br />
<i style="text-align: right;">Krysset markerar ödemarken som kallas "Värmland"</i><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-thhLhrc_skkKlrb7sX5kz-nnSZQgAWptHYXNdApzSdxkkVFzmTuqJ5aCG8VwrooaItuyTIcfgh2LFjC9WDVgkq6csn1eyh-DPcau2OGAHnzq0ZTJ6B3M3ynlBARF867DFvTuU6N20maj/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="811" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-thhLhrc_skkKlrb7sX5kz-nnSZQgAWptHYXNdApzSdxkkVFzmTuqJ5aCG8VwrooaItuyTIcfgh2LFjC9WDVgkq6csn1eyh-DPcau2OGAHnzq0ZTJ6B3M3ynlBARF867DFvTuU6N20maj/s320/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
<div style="text-align: start;">
Nedan följer lite uppgifter från en relativt liten stad i Värmland</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_eKbZ4vbqZ-Brr2oAt3At7UBAuJTe3qoPvmkyouvojcMNZpypwQ8-LlCCKovHNH5Hi4XdiWH3T0iSkCMgkm4lkJ0OGcIo7_OwsYla0wKAhAinGF17HgjsgZ1l5RnM-nR7Hhn3n9Yer90n/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+bilar.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_eKbZ4vbqZ-Brr2oAt3At7UBAuJTe3qoPvmkyouvojcMNZpypwQ8-LlCCKovHNH5Hi4XdiWH3T0iSkCMgkm4lkJ0OGcIo7_OwsYla0wKAhAinGF17HgjsgZ1l5RnM-nR7Hhn3n9Yer90n/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+bilar.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH2o6mqOp-E8N9Uy9FNPSSYNHlQ6DTQuBdG4AHTY6-fDGDlaDUJB8KrqZklGEwCZqSA62nuqTeXri8yoA18KCy798MMrZoG3OzY9hw2CWcf95Pomvnw1sk5kqXPbnIEL909SxATHStnMC0/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="254" data-original-width="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH2o6mqOp-E8N9Uy9FNPSSYNHlQ6DTQuBdG4AHTY6-fDGDlaDUJB8KrqZklGEwCZqSA62nuqTeXri8yoA18KCy798MMrZoG3OzY9hw2CWcf95Pomvnw1sk5kqXPbnIEL909SxATHStnMC0/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+2.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc3UhNWqyr44WJAjVcsmFTUPDvZ4NqkCj7DkyjVm1zaYeBCEeO_8u56mySKqHWrH17ERtRMNGuiuf0SZDYFwJCaBZ58P_Ih9QrA-Iewx1e-pnSTQslX6emSCFB9D9LMfWce3y5k6jXN3e4/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc3UhNWqyr44WJAjVcsmFTUPDvZ4NqkCj7DkyjVm1zaYeBCEeO_8u56mySKqHWrH17ERtRMNGuiuf0SZDYFwJCaBZ58P_Ih9QrA-Iewx1e-pnSTQslX6emSCFB9D9LMfWce3y5k6jXN3e4/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+3.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
Och då polisen havererat så börjar det uppstå lite intressanta situationer:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHX3x5v7LAcbEcJvT9b_U-kecMR_KxVHqV0oj6NaC885AKToCEObMfSOW4q8K4xwGtiB9EmnIpsoMDmkmrCWkAxTLZAF3Jl4WohWtJ3A_FZqQCORUgO0ZKZ-7ciRwj9rymEMBxm_cPKpg8/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="124" data-original-width="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHX3x5v7LAcbEcJvT9b_U-kecMR_KxVHqV0oj6NaC885AKToCEObMfSOW4q8K4xwGtiB9EmnIpsoMDmkmrCWkAxTLZAF3Jl4WohWtJ3A_FZqQCORUgO0ZKZ-7ciRwj9rymEMBxm_cPKpg8/s1600/v%25C3%25A4rmland+4.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
I en insändare i lokaltidningen bjöds på högkvalitativ humor:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipmV4qT9okf17DRb1PKPT-cmBUNeR6mrEKB6yte6mtf45BUL8XxRBaVWHQ_eRgmuk46rnigwG0tcYHdtJnZJdUfBWyE2iZSExFYXcQQu2EwAkxCckU3m2TtRi_N2nDlXLqHCdrys53Wpsu/s1600/Kristinehamnare.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="611" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipmV4qT9okf17DRb1PKPT-cmBUNeR6mrEKB6yte6mtf45BUL8XxRBaVWHQ_eRgmuk46rnigwG0tcYHdtJnZJdUfBWyE2iZSExFYXcQQu2EwAkxCckU3m2TtRi_N2nDlXLqHCdrys53Wpsu/s640/Kristinehamnare.PNG" width="490" /></a></div>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Det har byggts upp en etnisk underklass i Sverige som börjar påminna mer och mer om den i USA:</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyxgWgNOZ-BtzLp4sWRi6AVkdDVsnujH78aYDRka2pvrQfRD87bl7Xc4FAjr3ZMDHIpCyQzUI2bC5AlZBwsqcoOJBnCvHGz6X9pDGxgrcVJlwCCUMumNDILKr0KJLQeqo6hQnW6mOQ_b6O/s1600/andra+generationen+2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="729" data-original-width="577" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyxgWgNOZ-BtzLp4sWRi6AVkdDVsnujH78aYDRka2pvrQfRD87bl7Xc4FAjr3ZMDHIpCyQzUI2bC5AlZBwsqcoOJBnCvHGz6X9pDGxgrcVJlwCCUMumNDILKr0KJLQeqo6hQnW6mOQ_b6O/s640/andra+generationen+2.PNG" width="506" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b><b>Delar av denna etnisk underklass börjar även ta efter de svartas kultur i USA. Om man vill ha ett mer visuellt exempel på detta kan man se 5 sekunder på denna videon:</b><br />
<b><br /></b><b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LbatbHqCfc&t=1m5s" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LbatbHqCfc&t=1m5s</a></b><br />
<br />
Sedan är förstås killarna i ovanstående video långt mindre tuffa i verkligheten än de är på video. Det är småkids med vapen och attitydproblem, vilket man ganska snabbt konstaterar om man har och göra med sådana "kravallungar". De är dock oberäkneliga, stolta och har lätt att ta till våld, med andra ord en explosiv kombination.<br />
<br />
(<b><i>Vissa etniska grupper i samhället har en markant sämre profil rörande graden av kriminalitet och arbetslöshet än exempelvis etniska svenskar eller bosnier.</i></b><br />
<i><b><br /></b></i>
<i><b>Kan man inte skilja på enskilda individer och grupp genomsnitt så bör man fråga sig var ens begåvningsnivån ligger. Dock kan man hävda att en del grupp genomsnitt (afghaner, somalier, romer) är så dåliga att man i hög grad kan göra antagande om enskilda individer. Dessa antagande får sedan mer eller mindre bekräftas när man har samröre med individen.</b></i>)<br />
<br />
Men de som bor i Värmland kan kanske med lite tur se framemot samma form av nyår som firas i delar av Malmö. Nedanstående är från möllevången vid södervärn i Malmö. Malmö är förstås i regel inte en krigszon, förutom nyår då.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/_xvWVHF68qA/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_xvWVHF68qA?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xvWVHF68qA" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xvWVHF68qA</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Man hör till och med de obligatoriska skriken, som om en bilbomb gått av i land X.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xvWVHF68qA&t=2m17s" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xvWVHF68qA&t=2m17s</a><br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-52335463422833792062017-07-13T08:14:00.000-07:002017-07-13T08:18:05.491-07:00Durocs senaste förvärv bekräftar ytterligare<br />
<i>(I föregående inlägg diskuterades Pandora och jag glömde nämna en av de större riskerna i sammanhanget, dollarkursen. Jag har köpt en viss hedge för att skydda mot ett fall i dollarns värde, i form av ett certifikat utan hävstång. Denna har jag tagit för att kompensera något för riskerna som jag upplever att min portfölj har mot dollarn).</i><br />
<br />
Duroc har genomfört ett förvärv av ett mindre <a href="http://www.duroc.com/ab/om-duroc/pressmeddelanden/pressmeddelande.aspx?pid=1336734" target="_blank">textilföretag</a>:<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #646567; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11.0011px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">"BonarAgro, som är baserat i belgiska Lokeren, Belgien, utvecklar, tillverkar och säljer fiberbaserade textilier för professionell odling av grödor. Produkterna är ämnade att styra klimatet i odlingsmiljön.<strong> </strong>BonarAgros solskyddstextilier används i växthus för att skydda grödorna mot starkt UV-ljus och värme samtidigt som de också isolerar mot kyla under kallare årstider. Andra produkter som BonarAgro utvecklar och tillverkar är textilier för svampodlingar samt marktextilier för eliminering av ogräs och minskat behov av bekämpningsmedel. </span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #646567; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11.0011px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Förvärvet görs genom Durocs dotterbolag IFG Exelto och kompletterar Durocs verksamhet inom textilfiber, både vad gäller produkterbjudande och säljkanaler. Produkterna säljs över hela världen via en egen säljorganisation. BonarAgro omsätter cirka 20 MEUR och har cirka 200 anställda. Tillväxten i marknaden är god och bedöms till cirka 9% årligen de nästkommande åren"</span></div>
<br />
Bonagro ökar Durocs omsättning med drygt 9% och tycks ha genomförts till en bra värdering då förvärvet påverkar <b>resultatet positivt</b> innevarande år och <b>ingen goodwill </b>tas upp på balansräkningen.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #646567; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px;">"Förvärvet bedöms ha en positiv påverkan på Durocs resultat per aktie redan för innevarande räkenskapsår (2017/2018). Durocs koncernbalansräkning belastas inte med goodwill i samband med förvärvet, vilket sker med egna medel. Förvärvet förväntas vara genomfört senast den 30 september 2017, givet att avtalsvillkoren då är uppfyllda. "</span><br />
<br />
Tidigar<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html" target="_blank">e tes tycks därmed </a>vara allt mer bekräftad även om man förstås får se vad som sker kommande kvartal:<br />
<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">Som jag ser det är inte värderingen särskilt ansträngd och möjligheten till positiva överraskningar är påtaglig. De båda huvudägarna får anses vara briljanta placerare, vilket ge en god grund vid sökandet efter potentiella förvärv.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">(...) </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">Detta är ett riktigt långsiktigt innehav med förhoppning att Gyllenhammar och Traction bygger vidare på koncernen.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">Med andra ord kan investeringen sammanfattas med:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" />
<b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">In Gyllenhammar and familjen Stillström we trust"</b><br />
<br />
<b>Möjligheten att ta rygg på "två" av Sveriges bästa placerare när de bygger upp ett konglomerat får anses vara mycket intressant!</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Men som vanligt</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>CAVEAT EMPTOR</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">"Största riskerna är:</span><br />
<ul style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Konjunkturen</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Icke representativt lönsamhet senaste året</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Värdet på den svenska kronan kontra andra europeiska valutor och dollarn.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Likviditeten är dålig i aktien och den kan vara otillräcklig om man behöver sälja med kort varsel.</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Småbolagen har gått väldigt starkt på börsen, rimligtvis kan denna överavkastning ej fortgå."</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-21171943371337135192017-07-05T07:21:00.001-07:002017-07-05T07:27:49.266-07:00Position i Pandora<b><u>Mina anteckningar om Pandora som friserats något:</u></b><br />
<br />
<i>(värdering bygger på en kurs kring 605 dkk)</i><br />
<br />
<b><u>Håller med analyserna nedan:</u></b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.avanza.se/placera/redaktionellt/2017/06/22/billigt-glitter-i-pandora.html" target="_blank">https://www.avanza.se/placera/redaktionellt/2017/06/22/billigt-glitter-i-pandora.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/29/this-company-trades-like-a-value-stock-but-its-chi.aspx" target="_blank">https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/29/this-company-trades-like-a-value-stock-but-its-chi.aspx</a><br />
<br />
<b><u>Sammanfattande ord om caset: </u></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>* Relativt låg värdering kombinerat med f</b><b>örmodad god tillväxt om 7-10% årligen.</b><br />
<b>* God direktavkastning</b><br />
<b>* Överdriven reaktion på vad som tycks vara en stagnerande marknad i USA </b>(se analys <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/29/this-company-trades-like-a-value-stock-but-its-chi.aspx" target="_blank">här</a>)<br />
<br />
<b><u>Värdering 2016:</u></b><br />
2016:<br />
p/e: 11,875<br />
direkt: 5,7%<br />
<br />
<b><u>Värdering 2017:</u></b><br />
2017: growth 8-10% ; P/e: 10,8<br />
<u><br /></u>
<b><u>Återköpsprogrammet:</u></b><br />
Givet att återköpsprogrammet fortgår i samma takt som under Q1 och till samma kurs erhålls ytterligare 2% "avkastning".<br />
<br />
<b><u>Risker</u>: </b><br />
Fallande kniven fortsätter falla, om kursen går igenom 595 kr så utvärderas innehavet.<br />
<br />
En ytterligare risk är att inbromsningen i USA fortgår och är markant mer influerat av en svagare marknadssituation än framförallt de mer strukturella åtgärderna som ledningen hänvisar till.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Enligt någon snubbe på Avanza Forumet har nedastående insiderköp skett:</u></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<i>Har ej kunnat kontrollera via danskarnas insynsregister.</i><br />
<br style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Idag, 2017-05-31, köpte vice ordförande Christian Frigast 2,500 aktier á 625 DKK = summa ca 1,6 MDKK</span><br />
<br style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Igår, 2017-05-30, köpte CEO Anders Colding Friis 2,350 aktier á ~608,3 DKK = summa ca 1,4 MDKK</span><br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-40446806093497485302017-06-19T13:34:00.003-07:002017-06-19T13:39:00.438-07:00Ny era med högre tillgångspriser?<br />
Är det en ny era? Min personliga åsikt är att så inte är fallet. Dock är förmodligen denna uppgång i tillgångspriser avvikande från historiken då delvis marknadskrafter satts ur spel. Centralbankernas interventioner (verbalt eller med handling) har delvis satt marknadskrafterna ur spel med resultatet att banker, stater och bolag som skulle gått i "konkurs" "överlevt".<br />
<br />
Centralbankernas vansinniga policy att skapa tillväxt genom att blåsa upp tillgångspriserna tycks ha lyckats, men till vilket pris?<br />
<br />
<i>Ovanstående mening är inget konspiratorisk uttalande. Bernanke ansåg själv att "higher stock prices" var ett möjligt "stimulansområde" för tillgångsköpen 2010. Uppåtgående tillgångspriser ansåg önskvärt då och anses förmodligen även önskvärt nu:</i><br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16.5px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16.5px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<b>(...) And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." (Ben Bernanke november 4, 2010, inlägg finnes <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372.html" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">här</a>).</b></div>
<br />
Resultatet av denna policy, som först Bernanke implementera, är att centralbankerna idag äger drygt 33% av den globala obligationsmarknaden<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho8AMZsrWhuV1_Vuw8XHQvEizzB0WqehAbdCfD3SBN0SroHNMBDffcwYrHiuDcTYzJHxJG7QXNlftWP5Il033cV6KZXzawL8LYoQ3587nGYTB9V78MksPaIlS2uQcDp3L4hB-_l7UYO440/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="696" height="570" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho8AMZsrWhuV1_Vuw8XHQvEizzB0WqehAbdCfD3SBN0SroHNMBDffcwYrHiuDcTYzJHxJG7QXNlftWP5Il033cV6KZXzawL8LYoQ3587nGYTB9V78MksPaIlS2uQcDp3L4hB-_l7UYO440/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-04/central-banks-now-own-third-entire-54-trillion-global-bond-market" target="_blank">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-04/central-banks-now-own-third-entire-54-trillion-global-bond-market</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Uppenbarligen har detta "fungerat", men jag förblir skeptisk på grund av nedanstående anledning:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"If economics were a hard science like chemistry, you’d mix a little of this with a bit of that and the concoction would lead to strong economic growth, full employment, rising home prices, buoyant financial markets, and low inflation every time. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: red;">But economics is a soft science, and real life simply doesn’t work so predictably. Though economists might wish otherwise, economics is, at its core, behavioral.</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> Modern economies are too complex to be reliably modeled; their connections and correlations are lose and imprecise, the second- and third-order effects largely immeasurable the fickle vagaries of individual and aggregate human behavior utterly unknowable. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: red;">Put an economist in a powerful government job and provide levers that can be pulled to start the printing presses, set reserve requirements, fiddle with the Fed funds rate, expand the Fed’s balance sheet, and deliver indecipherable communiqués, and that economist will feel compelled to pull those levers.</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> He or she, like a monkey with a typewriter, might even give us Shakespeare (or Adam Smith) on occasion. But mostly that economist will spout gibberish, a mélange of untested and potentially counterproductive measures that unleash all manner of unintended consequences." (Seth Klarman, 2012 letter) </span><br />
<br />
Även om allt ser ut att gå vägen för centralbankerna så gömmer sig skit under ytan. Kolla bara 2 minuter på nedanstående video om subprime marknaden i USA. Subprime marknaden har börjat löpa amok igen, fast denna gången är det billån.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s&t=12m16s" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s&t=12m16s</a><br />
<br />
Mina tankar bör dock vara irrelevant för er läsare, utan istället kommer två erkända investerares tankar nedan (Maida och Grantham). En av dessa tror på en form av ny era och en tror på en bubbla:<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Vito Maida</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">"“This too shall pass.”
Valuation seems to have been forgotten in the investment process. This has been
evident over the past several years but we are now in the territory of “reckless
abandon” as “animal spirits” take over. There are several reasons for the current
state of affairs. Among them: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• Persistent record low interest rates fuelled by Central Bankers fearful of
a decline in asset prices; </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• Enormous corporate share repurchases funded by ever increasing levels
of debt; </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• The large amount of fund flows into passive investment strategies that
are fully invested and by definition must continuously purchase equities
in an ever rising market begetting higher and higher prices. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">These factors coupled with investor optimism have pushed current equity
valuations to record highs. In our view risk is now exceptionally high;
particularly relative to potential future returns. While we can’t predict how
long these markets will persist, history tells us market sentiment often changes
quickly and for unforeseen reasons. Below we list some of the risks that are
being ignored:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"> • Political risk, with President Trump being embroiled in several
investigations that threaten his administration’s pro-business policies; </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and the
Korean Peninsula; </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• Higher interest rates being telegraphed by the U.S. Federal Reserve; </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">• Valuations that sit near all-time highs. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The current environment is eerily similar to previous peaks in 1987, 2000 and
2007. In each of those circumstances valuations were ignored. Investment
pundits of all stripes provided eloquent justifications for continued optimism and ever rising prices. Investors got enamoured with the popular investment
of the day and impatient with any asset that didn’t show an immediate return.
Any rational argument rooted in financial and historical norms was dismissed
in favour of the new paradigm of the day. "(<a href="http://www.patientcapital.com/news" target="_blank">Vito Maida Q1 2017</a>)</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Jeremy Grantham</b></span><br />
<div style="background-color: #fff1e0; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0.8em; margin-top: 0.3em;">
In recent weeks, as US equities have hit new all-time highs, one of the world’s most high-profile perma-bears, <a data-trackable="link" href="https://www.ft.com/stream/b198c419-7dc0-32a6-954c-4f8a69447670" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(38, 116, 122); color: #26747a; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;">Jeremy Grantham</a> of the Boston investment firm GMO has declared that we may have entered a new era of sustained higher stock market valuations and that we are not in the “bubble” that many have been so eager to call.</div>
<div style="background-color: #fff1e0; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin-bottom: 0.8em; margin-top: 0.3em;">
Mr Grantham argues that this time really might be different because the higher earnings power of an ever more consolidated number of US companies justifiably mean that these mega-corporations deserve to trade at higher multiples than in the past. Such views are highly unfashionable in an age of deeply-held cynicism about the role of central banks supporting asset prices and lingering trauma from the crash of 2008. (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be7aad0e-4abe-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43?mhq5j=e3" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/be7aad0e-4abe-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43?mhq5j=e3</a>)</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Från GMOs <a href="https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=44" target="_blank">kvartalsbrev sida 9-16 </a>så kan man läsa Granthams senaste tankar i detalj och de är fascinerande:</b><br />
<br />
"Oh, the good old days!<br />
<br />
When I started following the market in 1965 I could look back at what we might call the Ben Graham
training period of 1935-1965. He noticed financial relationships and came to the conclusion that
for patient investors the important ratios always went back to their old trends. He unsurprisingly
preferred larger safety margins to smaller ones and, most importantly, more assets per dollar of stock
price to fewer because he believed margins would tend to mean revert and make underperforming
assets more valuable.<br />
<br />
(...)Exhibit 1 shows what happened to the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 after 1996. For a long
and painful 20 years – for someone betting on a steady, unchanging world order – the P/E ratio
stayed high by 1935-1995 standards. It still oscillated the same as before, but was now around a
much higher mean, 65% to 70% higher! This is not a trivial difference to investors, and 20 years is
long enough to test the apocryphal but suitable Keynesian quote that the market can stay irrational
longer than the investor can stay solvent.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiarSojdbRZDxJOzhWzUg8e68sd_3drIcF-ufwL4JQSzr_tNM7hrvqXyX_-nnThoVag2JG5yDVHp6-EyMoLoMT_UvDkPnJxtdEJVQD1qNNCoZrMitxGyPZyeUkuwCV-p171_QI48j0ki7Eq/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="629" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiarSojdbRZDxJOzhWzUg8e68sd_3drIcF-ufwL4JQSzr_tNM7hrvqXyX_-nnThoVag2JG5yDVHp6-EyMoLoMT_UvDkPnJxtdEJVQD1qNNCoZrMitxGyPZyeUkuwCV-p171_QI48j0ki7Eq/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The behavior of the
S&P 500 in 2002 might have been whispering in my ear, but surely this is now a shout? The market has
been acting as if it is oscillating normally enough but around a much higher average P/E.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjetgBOoCaIGysB86V1C8PixmmVpa4i7ez4tkUv1gQz9Rzso2JaE33MyfkKVtS0aZFEhCv9L-u0ePJP1k8OQi62XMPBJkHeNWU-VQGK1TjN6mxZJjYJCS9UzrtEavZy95t192cdZlHOe6fR/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="657" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjetgBOoCaIGysB86V1C8PixmmVpa4i7ez4tkUv1gQz9Rzso2JaE33MyfkKVtS0aZFEhCv9L-u0ePJP1k8OQi62XMPBJkHeNWU-VQGK1TjN6mxZJjYJCS9UzrtEavZy95t192cdZlHOe6fR/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Grantham menar att skiftet uppåt värderingsmässigt åstadkommits av att företagen lyckas bibehålla högre marginaler än tidigare. I de 2 nedanstående graferna illustreras hur marginalerna för de amerikanska företagen förhållit sig historiskt.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwaxQdV_M4uGBemEEn5TxTSxUhJQMabVJn2ZCsQfWmQR_YwNZAwjZiCLI6LDOt3CEMT5v0LaI47GEl_fwRVgadwM4iVSi61OLNxkOO7ugzIITiX1HlleNKkVrq_ilwf_1Cax6_sC53APn/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="611" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwaxQdV_M4uGBemEEn5TxTSxUhJQMabVJn2ZCsQfWmQR_YwNZAwjZiCLI6LDOt3CEMT5v0LaI47GEl_fwRVgadwM4iVSi61OLNxkOO7ugzIITiX1HlleNKkVrq_ilwf_1Cax6_sC53APn/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9lB1LshO-XsFR66rZSMIMqUke9mPQaC5aDMp7-H1W3zAHa2uWc84gTTIAN1f3L5gR7-A4sdN37_a20MpYRZaAbY6sY07QOUcoz6jwJ6sOSyzch3eGws_WXX3Eb29KK0XgiD03-am21nqB/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="623" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9lB1LshO-XsFR66rZSMIMqUke9mPQaC5aDMp7-H1W3zAHa2uWc84gTTIAN1f3L5gR7-A4sdN37_a20MpYRZaAbY6sY07QOUcoz6jwJ6sOSyzch3eGws_WXX3Eb29KK0XgiD03-am21nqB/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...) We value investors have bored momentum investors for decades by trotting out the axiom that the
four most dangerous words are, “This time is different.”2
For 2017 I would like, however, to add to this
warning: Conversely, it can be very dangerous indeed to assume that things are never different. <br />
<br />
Of all these many differences, the most important for understanding the stock market is, in my opinion,
the much higher level of corporate profits. With higher margins, of course the market is going to sell
at higher prices.3
So how permanent are these higher margins? I used to call profit margins the most
dependably mean-reverting series in finance. And they were through 1997. So why did they stop mean
reverting around the old trend? Or alternatively, why did they appear to jump to a much higher trend
level of profits? It is unreasonable to expect to return to the old price trends – however measured – as
long as profits stay at these higher levels.<br />
<br />
(...) ■ The single largest input to higher margins, though, is likely to be the existence of much
lower real interest rates since 1997 combined with higher leverage. Pre-1997 real rates
averaged 200 bps higher than now and leverage was 25% lower. At the old average rate
and leverage, profit margins on the S&P 500 would drop back 80% of the way to their
previous much lower pre-1997 average, leaving them a mere 6% higher. (Turning up
the rate dial just another 0.5% with a further modest reduction in leverage would push
them to complete the round trip back to the old normal.)<br />
<br />
This neat outcome tempted me to say, “well that’s it then, these new higher margins are simply and
exclusively the outcome of lower rates and higher leverage,” leaving only the remaining 20% of
increased margins to be explained by our almost embarrassingly large number of other very plausible
reasons for higher margins such as monopoly and increased corporate power. But then I realized
that there is a conundrum: In a world of reasonable competitiveness, higher margins from long-term
lower rates should have been competed away. (Corporate risk had not materially changed, for interest
coverage was unchanged and rate volatility was fine.) But they were not, and I believe it was precisely
these other factors – increased monopoly, political, and brand power – that had created this new
stickiness in profits that allowed these new higher margin levels to be sustained for so long.<br />
<br />
(...)Perhaps the best bet for higher rate equilibrium in the next few years is a change in the dominant
central bank policy of using low rates to stimulate asset prices (which they clearly do) and stimulate
growth (which, other than pushing growth back or forward a quarter or so, I believe they do not
do). With 20 years of Fed support for this approach and loyal adherents in the ECB and The Banks
of England and Japan, changing the policy is unlikely to be quick or easy. It is a deeply entrenched
establishment view, or so it seems. President Trump is admittedly a very, very wild card in this game,
and he said a few anti-Fed things in the election phase, for whatever that is worth. He also gets to
appoint five new members, including the chair, in the next 18 months. But in the end, will a real estate
developer with plenty of assets and an apparent interest in being very rich really promote a materially
higher-yield policy at the Fed? Possible, but quite improbable, I think. <br />
<br />
(...)What this argument probably does mean is that if you are expecting a quick or explosive market
decline in the S&P 500 that will return us to pre-1997 ratios (perhaps because that is the kind of thing
that happened in the past), then you should at least be prepared to be frustrated for some considerable
further time: until you can feel the process of the real interest rate structure moving back up toward
its old level<br />
<br />
(...) In conclusion, there are two important things to carry in your mind: First, the market now and in the
past acts as if it believes the current higher levels of profitability are permanent; and second, a regular
bear market of 15% to 20% can always occur for any one of many reasons. What I am interested in
here is quite different: a more or less permanent move back to, or at least close to, the pre-1997 trends
of profitability, interest rates, and pricing. And for that it seems likely that we will have a longer wait
than any value manager would like (including me). "<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=44" target="_blank">https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=44</a><br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-53814879622121713242017-05-12T09:35:00.000-07:002017-05-12T09:37:39.734-07:00Sanslösa resultat och överhettning på g?Senaste tiden har man kunnat se helt sanslösa resultat från flera bolag som rapporterat, och jag måste säga att det verkligen imponerat!<br />
<b><br /></b>
Senaste marknaden var lika stark var 2013, men då skedde nästan bara en multipelexpansion. I dagsläget tycks mer underbygga uppgången (resultatmässigt) och det talar för en längre uppgång.<br />
<br />
De starka resultaten är förmodligen delvis influerade av nedanstående:<br />
<br />
1. Den relativt "låga" kronkursen och därför en starkt expanderande exportindustri<br />
2. Minus ränta i en högkonjunktur! VANSINNE!<br />
3. Enorm invandring den senaste perioden, där Sveriges befolkning ökade med mer än 1% under ett år!<br />
<br />
Förmodligen går Sverige mot en överhettning eller som <a href="http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/04/konjunkturinstitutet-svensk-industri.html" target="_blank">Cornucopia </a>beskrev det:<br />
<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "open sans" , "freesans" , "arial" , "helvetica"; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">Ekonomin är alltså överhettad med en konjunkturbarometer på 112.8, där 100 är medel och över 110 är överhettning. Överhettningen ligger främst i bygg- och anläggningssektorn, men framför allt hos tillverkningsindustrin.</span><br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Open Sans", FreeSans, Arial, Helvetica; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">
<b>Den senare har aldrig förr varit så här överhettad. Barometerindikatorn ligger där på 123.2 vilket är det högsta någonsin uppmätt. " (<a href="http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/04/konjunkturinstitutet-svensk-industri.html" target="_blank">Bloggen Cornucopia</a>, 2017-04-27)</b></div>
<br />
Så som jag ser det är det uppåt som gäller, men baksmällan kommer även om det är omöjligt att avgöra när. Jag vill påstå att ekonomi är starkt stimulerad av nedanstående:<br />
<br />
* Bygga boende och andra förvaringsplatser till 160 tusen flyktingar, varav 80 tusen av dessa skall avvisas.<br />
* Minimalt budgetöverskott i en högkonjunktur<br />
* Bostadsbubbla<br />
* Negativ ränta!<br />
* Kraftig "devalvering" i kronkursen för några år sedan relativt dollarn.<br />
<br />
<b>Lite intressanta bilder och länkar</b><b><br /></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">1.</span></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKV-oqckHILOC-UxfIruvs2xhyphenhyphenFxd09LtWBzOqcOMPc7uNB5aKTpQ_ac0uVW2UR78iyL2j_q8tZS0RbfQqI7EOKQzpYFOzTKXFh9j4aQvYDzGkLtEP1G6CCUdU8uYPF7DVFnSJ9oAcLnj1/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKV-oqckHILOC-UxfIruvs2xhyphenhyphenFxd09LtWBzOqcOMPc7uNB5aKTpQ_ac0uVW2UR78iyL2j_q8tZS0RbfQqI7EOKQzpYFOzTKXFh9j4aQvYDzGkLtEP1G6CCUdU8uYPF7DVFnSJ9oAcLnj1/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
https://www.svd.se/hon-blev-en-halv-miljon-rikare-efter-separationen/om/skuldstressen<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2.</span></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9T3Srai1hy7e1wsGOkn-am7d6wF4oAruEirrqoUy7fSdfCPGZeUMcatxFlO__MVWETHUcXbYYchw181Ovl5UHb71KKS7zn08PR4a_fiqzSmTsdh1ewJkXIdeecVMgTiMnf_zADeZs2elN/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9T3Srai1hy7e1wsGOkn-am7d6wF4oAruEirrqoUy7fSdfCPGZeUMcatxFlO__MVWETHUcXbYYchw181Ovl5UHb71KKS7zn08PR4a_fiqzSmTsdh1ewJkXIdeecVMgTiMnf_zADeZs2elN/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<b>http://www.affarsvarlden.se/bors-ekonominyheter/sa-blev-economista-snabbt-storst-pa-aktier-pa-natet-6843994</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">3.</span></b><b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiBENQkW_rx86hf6IL_y1zRmYXPypyvJm4w-LmZYq8vyrDh3J7WgIRlhPXdNYwhFX3TTILCnyRaBl_Mj2FWKbXgCWvpW3DlGEA7FiPgh96teRBYqjV08xq6fx3NGblErdgFW_hVWRFqPHH/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiBENQkW_rx86hf6IL_y1zRmYXPypyvJm4w-LmZYq8vyrDh3J7WgIRlhPXdNYwhFX3TTILCnyRaBl_Mj2FWKbXgCWvpW3DlGEA7FiPgh96teRBYqjV08xq6fx3NGblErdgFW_hVWRFqPHH/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="504" /></a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">4.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 700;">"63,2 procent av turkarna</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 18px;"> boende i Tyskland röstade i enlighet med President Erdogans linje. Nej-sidan fick 36,8 procent, enligt de preliminära röstsiffrorna som Turkiets statliga nyhetsbyrå Anadolu presenterade på måndagen. Resultatet i Tyskland markerar en tydlig skillnad gentemot det samlade resultatet i folkomröstningen, där ja-sidan vann en mycket knapp seger. "(</span><a href="http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/tysk-oro-efter-valresultatet-i-turkiet/" target="_blank">http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/tysk-oro-efter-valresultatet-i-turkiet/</a>)<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 18px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: large;">5.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17_Koc3RLccyc0CLZhGM4n0TqUWZmAD8dk7DwvkF8qFoVaIjYp_jQ4NpL6fGkTmo3d9m-JNI9Diictvr5kZzfW44xYBsmbZDaQphEMgM0vXT38c9UX3yVrhQ6jpsr_DcJiSKJEp9kCZHG/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17_Koc3RLccyc0CLZhGM4n0TqUWZmAD8dk7DwvkF8qFoVaIjYp_jQ4NpL6fGkTmo3d9m-JNI9Diictvr5kZzfW44xYBsmbZDaQphEMgM0vXT38c9UX3yVrhQ6jpsr_DcJiSKJEp9kCZHG/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<a href="http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/05/varfor-maste-man-alltid-investera.html" target="_blank">http://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2017/05/varfor-maste-man-alltid-investera.html</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-63208894207419844092017-04-23T12:29:00.000-07:002017-04-23T12:29:19.963-07:00Duroc Q1 - gott resultat<br />
Duroc prestera ett bra resultat med en vinst per aktie om 0.63, vilket extrapolerat på 4 kvartal ger ett resultat om 2,52 kr/aktie.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE2YPLMq-DhtQRAL2niVQ9Hxq_bFNWsmdapmWJyjFAd97efWoUhFmGVG02xrwgAbfzlzVIZsZjtAR0ry9_5frgOTzt1G0FrIo1c2PfFstw6MwzvcWFWhOSNyuFB6FjFzWiC-RTRAsdjEBD/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE2YPLMq-DhtQRAL2niVQ9Hxq_bFNWsmdapmWJyjFAd97efWoUhFmGVG02xrwgAbfzlzVIZsZjtAR0ry9_5frgOTzt1G0FrIo1c2PfFstw6MwzvcWFWhOSNyuFB6FjFzWiC-RTRAsdjEBD/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
På grund av redovisningsteknikaliteter tycks dock resultatet vara något högre. P/e-talet bör alltså ligga i regionen 12,5-13,5 för helåret 2017.<br />
<br />
Annat tycks också röra sig i rätt riktning för bolaget:<br />
<br />
(från vd-orden i Q1)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7OakyuOd86KVVLGFYjerRxeHCBrLIdrdA4_bltz7tNSGNQkBqIfDsNx2xCMbkV5XLalXn_PBPoflcNQWXjtYKrndLKL0SV6swOvRaKK_Jop1nN3u2ZZaz4B0z-_E36U6EgYF9sqGCU7p9/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7OakyuOd86KVVLGFYjerRxeHCBrLIdrdA4_bltz7tNSGNQkBqIfDsNx2xCMbkV5XLalXn_PBPoflcNQWXjtYKrndLKL0SV6swOvRaKK_Jop1nN3u2ZZaz4B0z-_E36U6EgYF9sqGCU7p9/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Vidare fortsätter ledningen signalera om viljan att förvärva bolag, som med familjen Stillström och Gyllenhammars hjälp bör bli värdeskapande.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-NS7jN4oy6xnls0WaYM_NiWuRp2zT9LF3cxD0PTwKsMBgnOHObZ3CMYp3czX1jK5BK_OxmS3OFF29Rj0KH38NsgenRn2c0DccvYkAbq7xCTzigGu96YdiyKRlA0Ng1fRSBOWQpq-FPU0R/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-NS7jN4oy6xnls0WaYM_NiWuRp2zT9LF3cxD0PTwKsMBgnOHObZ3CMYp3czX1jK5BK_OxmS3OFF29Rj0KH38NsgenRn2c0DccvYkAbq7xCTzigGu96YdiyKRlA0Ng1fRSBOWQpq-FPU0R/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_sdnKwvU2-m0N_i_5ZG2cS0wbmHFrJjOG0SfZ31GdpJTRifjilNbq9a792IzEn6LIStDgQmKj-1HvAic7wDsqSkK0f1DMurD6Un_WmHQc97vkbDqHayVB29-mhTIbJCsoh4bgeBLSbvNn/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_sdnKwvU2-m0N_i_5ZG2cS0wbmHFrJjOG0SfZ31GdpJTRifjilNbq9a792IzEn6LIStDgQmKj-1HvAic7wDsqSkK0f1DMurD6Un_WmHQc97vkbDqHayVB29-mhTIbJCsoh4bgeBLSbvNn/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Värderingen har blivit klart högre, även om kursrusningen kompenseras något av det starka resultatet. Såvida omvärlden och kronkursen består tror jag och hoppas jag att något riktigt fint kan byggas på sikt.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">"Med andra ord kan investeringen sammanfattas med:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">In Gyllenhammar and familjen Stillström we trust</b><br style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Caveat Emptor "</i>(<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2017/04/ta-rygg-pa-gyllenhammar-och-familjen.html" target="_blank">Inlägg 2017-04-13</a>)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></span>Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-64488433263260861672017-04-13T05:46:00.000-07:002017-04-13T05:55:35.013-07:00Ta rygg på Gyllenhammar och Familjen Stillström?(<i>Det var en tid sedan jag skrev nedanstående "analys". Riskerna med investeringen är uppenbara och rimligtvis bör man ta dessa i beaktelse. Innehavet är långsiktigt.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Jag har ej kollat kursen sedan jag tog min position. Jag tenderar att inte kolla på enskilda aktier med någon större frekvens (månader) då jag inte anser att det är konstruktivt för mitt välbefinnande eller konstruktivt för mitt agerande på börsen. Har aktien gått bra anser jag att jag är briljant, vilket får anses vara problematiskt.)</i><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Information kring Gyllenhammar finnes på den långt mindre konspiratoriska bloggen <a href="https://vardebyran.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/vem-ar-peter-gyllenhammar/" target="_blank">"värdebyrån"</a>. Likaså kan man finna en analys om <a href="https://vardebyran.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/analys-av-traction/" target="_blank">Traction på värdebyrån.</a> </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Jag har bestämt mig för att ta rygg på familjen Stillström och Gyllenhammar i Duroc. Resonemang följer nedan:<br />
<br />
Det börsnoterade bolaget Duroc skall slås samman med Gyllenhammars koncern IFG. Duroc är en relativt spretig industrikoncern vars lönsamhet har förbättrats efter att förlustgående bolag i koncernen satts i konkurs. IFG är ett betydligt större bolag än Duroc som Gyllenhammar tog över till en billig peng.<br />
<br />
Efter sammanslagningen av Duroc och IFG finns <a href="https://www.avanza.se/placera/pressmeddelanden/2017/02/15/duroc-kommunik-fran-durocs-extrastamma-den-15-februari-2017.html" target="_blank">39 miljoner</a> aktier och vid en aktiekurs om 23 kr blir det sammanlagda bolagsvärdet cirka 900 miljoner kronor. Justerat för engångsposterna i Duroc och IFG genererade den sammanslagna koncernen en vinst om 104 miljoner kronor före skatt och 81 miljoner kronor efter skatt (22% bolagsskatt)<br />
<br />
P/e= 900/81= 11-12<br />
<br />
Engångsposter syns nedan:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhehB0d1LqIWRk_3l9eB0rEMsxGbZb6wzVcNVJI0mG80mGMQhNvnrSgnt0OPHD03Gu6kJrevPacvj_Gj3vumy04Go3_bbRrgColSusdCJ4Ol5OQXvjXgEiR4l7mK50ZcFEFj59SyiiPH7wB/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhehB0d1LqIWRk_3l9eB0rEMsxGbZb6wzVcNVJI0mG80mGMQhNvnrSgnt0OPHD03Gu6kJrevPacvj_Gj3vumy04Go3_bbRrgColSusdCJ4Ol5OQXvjXgEiR4l7mK50ZcFEFj59SyiiPH7wB/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Den nybildade koncernen kommer bli mer stabil och det huvudsakliga förändringsarbetet i Duroc kommer vara fullgjort. Dock kommer IFG stå för den absoluta merparten av resultatet och en stor del av resultatet kan påverkas av kronans värde relativt andra valutor.<br />
<br />
Varför funderar jag på en mindre position i Duroc?<br />
<br />
Jag anser i dagsläget att värdering om p/e 11-12 är rimlig, men framförallt hoppas jag att bolaget skall överraska förvärvsmässigt under kommande åren. Bolaget bör ha relativt god förmåga att genomföra en sådan förvärvsresa givet det positiva resultatet och en stabil balansräkning. Men framförallt bör bolagets huvudägare PG Gyllenhammar och familjen Stillström (Traction) verka för en god utveckling.<br />
<br />
Mycket riktigt har Traction valt att öka och Gyllenhammar "sitter fast" i bolaget.<br />
<br />
"I samband med affären kommer Traction att förvärva ytterligare 1.825.000 aktier i Duroc vilket innebär att Tractions ägande kommer uppgå till knappt 10 procent. " (Traction Q4)<br />
<br />
Dock verkar Gyllenhammar ta en mer tillbakalutad roll:<br />
<br />
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
"Denna organisation vill Peter Gyllenhammar inte bygga upp inom ramen för sitt privata industrikonglomerat PGAB, eftersom det då ligger för nära inpå honom även i fortsättningen. I stället är ambitionen, förklarar han, att medverka till att skapa ett nytt börsnoterat konglomerat med tillgång till riskkapitalmarknaden och förmåga att bygga upp sin egen organisation, kapabel att hantera framtida förvärv.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
"I Duroc finns redan en affärsidé som stämmer väldigt väl överens med den som jag därvid var ute efter: en marknadsnoterad industrikoncern med en öppen inställning till vad man kan investera i, och har för avsikt att göra det. Duroc får nu en kritisk massa genom att det med IFG blir mycket större, och bör därmed kunna attrahera ytterligare kompetent personal och så vidare", säger Peter Gyllenhammar.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
Han har, säger han, "dragit i handbromsen" i stället för att genomföra en del möjliga förvärv han har identifierat inom IFG, eftersom han själv inte vill ta på sig ännu mer ansvar.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
Ambitionen med Duroc, säger han också, är att där medverka till fler industriföretagsförvärv - detta har PGAB en "hygglig förmåga" att identifiera, värdera och opportunitistiskt ta vara på.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
"Men jag är inte rätt person att sedan springa resten av stafettloppet; därför har jag hittat möjligheten med Duroc, där byggs organisationen som springer vidare med stafettpinnen så att säga."</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif Pro", Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
Själv kommer Peter Gyllenhammar eller hans folk däremot inte att vara operationellt verksamma i Duroc - utöver som bollplank i strategifrågor, och att hitta förvärvsobjekt." (<a href="http://www.affarsvarlden.se/bors-ekonominyheter/gyllenhammar-ifg-passar-battre-hos-duroc-6818165" target="_blank">http://www.affarsvarlden.se/bors-ekonominyheter/gyllenhammar-ifg-passar-battre-hos-duroc-6818165</a>)</div>
Enligt Gyllenhammar har dock IFG potential för organisk tillväxt och kombinerat med framtida förvärv blir det intressant. Gyllenhammar klargör även tydligt att målet är att förvärva bolag:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "arial" , sans-serif;">” </span><em style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans", arial, sans-serif;">Jag bedömer att IFG har en stor tillväxtpotential, och i kombination med Durocs likartade affärsintriktning, får bolagen både</em><em style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans", arial, sans-serif;">tillgång till den publika marknaden för riskkapital och bättre organisatoriska förutsättningar. PGAB kommer att vara en långsiktig ägare i Duroc och skall bistå den utvidgade koncernen med aktivt stöd avseende framtida företagsförvärv </em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "arial" , sans-serif;">.” säger Peter Gyllenhammar, ägare till PGAB.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
Som jag ser det är inte värderingen särskilt ansträngd och möjligheten till positiva överraskningar är påtaglig. De båda huvudägarna får anses vara briljanta placerare, vilket ge en god grund vid sökandet efter potentiella förvärv.<br />
<br />
Största riskerna är:<br />
<ul>
<li>Konjunkturen</li>
<li>Icke representativt lönsamhet senaste året</li>
<li>Värdet på den svenska kronan kontra andra europeiska valutor och dollarn.</li>
<li>Likviditeten är dålig i aktien och den kan vara otillräcklig om man behöver sälja med kort varsel.</li>
<li>Småbolagen har gått väldigt starkt på börsen, rimligtvis kan denna överavkastning ej fortgå.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Riskerna är inte negligerbara och risken är överhängande att flera av ovanstående faktorer inträffar samtidigt. Skulle flera av ovanstående risker materialisera sig kan aktien komma att decimeras. Givet att omvärlden någorlunda lyckas bestå i några år till tror jag det kan gå bra. Man bör dock välja allokeringsstorlek med hänsyn tagen till bolagets storlek. Detta är ett riktigt långsiktigt innehav med förhoppning att Gyllenhammar och Traction bygger vidare på koncernen.<br />
<br />
Med andra ord kan investeringen sammanfattas med:<br />
<br />
<b>In Gyllenhammar and familjen Stillström we trust</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<u><i>Caveat Emptor</i></u></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<b>Veckans komiska inslag</b><br />
<br />
Det komiska inslaget står en god väns flickvän för. Flickvännen är från Ryssland (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mail-order_bride" target="_blank">ej importerad</a>) och har därmed ett något annorlunda perspektiv på tillvaron.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWdWOR44i-4SiTnBBHpttLdAFnvwPKFPyMJHVc1wBhTtmteA-41x1sciU9s2zHWsdeuFQ4CM6zAaMgXFTChIPoc68HWNmeEETe5Y1VzK5Uqrw_DOz689FBJTBwrij4MhM21Kx5sCqn3Hpn/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWdWOR44i-4SiTnBBHpttLdAFnvwPKFPyMJHVc1wBhTtmteA-41x1sciU9s2zHWsdeuFQ4CM6zAaMgXFTChIPoc68HWNmeEETe5Y1VzK5Uqrw_DOz689FBJTBwrij4MhM21Kx5sCqn3Hpn/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_9GBoB-9U1EwY4QY_3JUCqA1bF4K5tRFfRmJNPz0EFJVPdvPDW-A6VP-2FDpLRFz0PM-Rt0L36eL1H5JQN4d4DdPIYJIfQv9YTUz49cG6-PYk7tdcGZ8331Egq6rYAN4SmeWWdxPP2tMY/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_9GBoB-9U1EwY4QY_3JUCqA1bF4K5tRFfRmJNPz0EFJVPdvPDW-A6VP-2FDpLRFz0PM-Rt0L36eL1H5JQN4d4DdPIYJIfQv9YTUz49cG6-PYk7tdcGZ8331Egq6rYAN4SmeWWdxPP2tMY/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<a href="https://nyheteridag.se/ensamkommande-kostar-snart-lika-mycket-som-hela-rattsvasendet/" target="_blank">https://nyheteridag.se/ensamkommande-kostar-snart-lika-mycket-som-hela-rattsvasendet/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-43847856518108564292017-03-26T10:51:00.000-07:002017-03-26T11:07:15.883-07:00Vad tycker några kompetenta investerare idag?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Personliga Anekdoter kring situationen på börsen</i></span><br />
<b><br /></b>
<i>Topp eller bara indikation om fortsatt progressivt <a href="http://www.nordnetbloggen.se/lonsamma-strategier-pa-shareville-med-kavastu-och-framtidsfeministen/24/02/2017/" target="_blank">samhällsförfall</a>?</i><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqAYlLeTf6GA8mDkYPDfviUCI2CPoK8ULIIRyQH1OyLWw0iGQGzxQ_BVWW8zjF3yAHYYbfUNXdUNzZnRmjIp2a_AlPE863L1Aga5kY-3q8ilJo4NUr9TkxopNbWHiDhqTXpni6L8oxKBj3/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqAYlLeTf6GA8mDkYPDfviUCI2CPoK8ULIIRyQH1OyLWw0iGQGzxQ_BVWW8zjF3yAHYYbfUNXdUNzZnRmjIp2a_AlPE863L1Aga5kY-3q8ilJo4NUr9TkxopNbWHiDhqTXpni6L8oxKBj3/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<i>Intresset för aktier är tillräckligt stort för att DI skall utöka sin "tv-kanal".</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCI2ziix3hoAiR1iXjnrpDnHf1MzpeeaHXX5BnVEOgw__wUVOTLapG72Fdpx1epWAs31-xeJROiXrSiroSVPHP3a_P2xkF_v2B2M2W9u76S3Guq5rOzSM-GBMwhpLbfeW-1MAxtwzyfMM/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCI2ziix3hoAiR1iXjnrpDnHf1MzpeeaHXX5BnVEOgw__wUVOTLapG72Fdpx1epWAs31-xeJROiXrSiroSVPHP3a_P2xkF_v2B2M2W9u76S3Guq5rOzSM-GBMwhpLbfeW-1MAxtwzyfMM/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<i><br /></i>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Nog med anekdoter, här kommer några kompetenta individers tankar, vars tankar ej överensstämmer sinsemellan:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Rune Andersson</i></span><br />
Från DIs pappersversion:<br />
<br />
"Industrimannen Rune Andersson gick ur aktiemarknaden helt strax för årsskiftet.<br />
"Jag äger för närvarande noll aktier", säger han.<br />
<br />
(...) "Det är så sjukt nu. Jag tittade häromdagen på börslista och bolag som jag känner till. Det är ju p/e 20 på allting - mitt i en högkonjunktur."<br />
<br />
(...) "Jag hade aktier privat i en kapitalförsäkring och sålde allt. Jag tyckte att det hade gått upp vansinnigt. När jag sålde hade det gått upp med 20% på ett år ungefär och det är inte rimligt att det bara fortsätter.<br />
<br />
(...) Får vi ett börsfall på 20% skulle jag nog kunna tänka mig att köpa aktier igen, men i dag letar man inte ens efter aktier när p/e talen ligger på 20."<br />
<br />
(...) "Marknaden är enormt överhettad just nu. Det är inte en tillfällighet att vi ser så mycket börsnoteringar. Jag har varit med så många år att jag känner lukten när vi är på väg in i en ny pyramid och därför är det bra att spara på krutet." säger Rune Andersson.<br />
<br />
"Det här kommer som vanligt att sluta med tårar. Jag tror marknaden kommer att vända och vad är det då som utlöser detta? Jag tror det händer när väl räntan börjar normaliseras. Det dröjer lite, men när ECB och Riksbanken byter kurs kommer det att påverka värderingen av aktier." (Intervju i DI, 2017-03-24)<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Prem Watsa</i></span><br />
<b><br /></b>
Från Fairfaxs årsredovisning 2016, min fetstil:<br />
<br />
"Since we fully hedged our common stock portfolio in 2010, <b>we have been frequently asked, as we have constantly asked ourselves, under what circumstances would we remove the hedges.</b> Obviously, a huge sell-off in the financial markets, such as that of 2008/2009, would have led to that result, as the hedges would have performed the purpose for which they were established. <b>What actually happened with the U.S. presidential election on November 8 was the arrival of a new administration focused on dramatically reducing corporate taxes (35% to 15% – 20%), rolling back a myriad of regulations large and small which unnecessarily impede business, and very significantly increasing much needed infrastructure spending. In our view, this should light up ‘‘animal spirits’’ in America and result in much higher economic growth than what has prevailed in the last eight years. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
(...) Higher economic growth would result, we think, in higher profits for many companies, so that even though the indices may not go up significantly, we think a value investor like us can ply our trade again with less of a concern of economic collapse. When the U.S., a $19 trillion economy, does well, the world tends to do well!"<br />
<br />
While many risks to global economic growth remain, such as protectionism, China unraveling and the euro disintegrating, <b>we believe the chances for robust growth have significantly increased.</b> We will remain vigilant to these and other risks, and will retain protections in place, such as the $110 billion notional amount of deflation swaps we hold, which have five and a half years yet to run.<br />
<br />
(...)<b>In our minds, if the U.S. has higher economic growth of 3% plus, the major risks that we have discussed in past Annual Reports are significantly reduced but not eliminated. Why? Because the U.S. is the largest economy in the world and is the only economy that can impact the world in any significant manner. </b>So we will continue to watch China (we haven’t changed our minds, it is a bubble waiting to burst), Europe and the potential destruction of the euro, and the huge amounts of debt in the world, but our view is that this will be a stock picker’s market in which a long term value-oriented investment approach will thrive – and investing with a long term value-oriented approach is what we have done successfully for the last 31 years.<br />
<br />
(...) <b>The markets are not cheap, so we have to focus always on downside protections with potential upside. " (Prem Watsa, Fairfaxs årsredovisning 2016)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Vito Maida</i></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE73uWa17bMJwQ7AuT7a2ty0npIPq73PdhOV3ftQdgJxqRebJwYm1lIQh-P8Tk60XByPzcQqJgtktcmghx3beowu-4TMYy1ZjNIu1eBiMrwg-XN0bOMNpW9iQ95A3MhF_7mXGLJt0qXh-y/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE73uWa17bMJwQ7AuT7a2ty0npIPq73PdhOV3ftQdgJxqRebJwYm1lIQh-P8Tk60XByPzcQqJgtktcmghx3beowu-4TMYy1ZjNIu1eBiMrwg-XN0bOMNpW9iQ95A3MhF_7mXGLJt0qXh-y/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
Från patient capital managements Q4 brev till investerare 2016.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Seth Klarman</i></span><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZKkdVgKoCD6QU6sW7zIMKfr45MTCsYyH2bEJtHlhyphenhypheniS2drH2FNd_ExYrWk96-O3Q1yP64O879p-a4OizJjDZbasuRVV4XQEckN-2pc3ji1EkG8Q8Km0WnJkLNJ2f_Q2prjC9yUZc90beg/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZKkdVgKoCD6QU6sW7zIMKfr45MTCsYyH2bEJtHlhyphenhypheniS2drH2FNd_ExYrWk96-O3Q1yP64O879p-a4OizJjDZbasuRVV4XQEckN-2pc3ji1EkG8Q8Km0WnJkLNJ2f_Q2prjC9yUZc90beg/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Frank K Martin</i></span><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Men glöm ej hur detta slutar, från Frank K Martin:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
"As sure as a thief in the night, the Great Moderation stole the cautious conservatism forged in the crucible of suffering in the early 1980s and fomented an illusion of economic and financial stability. Empowered by new Chairman Alan Greenspan’s ability to stop the Crash of 1987 from metastasizing to the real economy, the Fed embarked on a path toward increasing intervention to tamp down economic and financial market volatility. In the years to come, Greenspan’s interference with the normal functioning of the economy and capital markets actually had the unintended consequence of perversely and systematically increasing fragility<br />
<b><br /></b>
As the new millennium dawned, the Fed’s attempt to render business and market cycles obsolete backfired. A sea change was at hand that continues to this day. The Fed, already behind the curve and again fearing that the threat de jure, the dot.com bust, might migrate to the real economy, pushed rates down to 1% by 2003, which gave impetus to the emerging housing bubble. More perniciously, the “Greenspan put” incited a swagger of invincibility in both the private and public sectors. From Wall Street to Main Street, it seemed that everyone had a vested interest in the glorious process of enrichment. The cries of skeptics, who reasoned that the economic and financial system was getting dangerously out of kilter, fell on deaf ears. They were thought ignorant of the new era and seemingly lacked faith in the inherent wisdom of the market itself. In retrospect, when reforms were desperately needed, apathy filled the void.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Once it became clear that the Fed’s easy money alchemy had shielded the economy from the dot.combust bullet, the speculative mindset became contagious, infecting both the financial and real economies— from investment bank securitizations to local bank homebuyer mortgage originations. Although seismic evidence had been accumulating all along, the volcanic eruption of the financial crisis broke the surface in September 2008, just before the election of Barack Obama. Once again, the Fed hastened to stop the hemorrhage, but this time, seeing itself as the only ER doctor in the hospital, overplayed its hand, perhaps fearing the patient would succumb. It kept the economy on a ventilator for years after it was no longer needed. It does get good marks for mitigating the liquidity crisis, but it never let the deleveraging cycle proceed with cleansing the accumulated financial excesses. Although it would’ve been painful, one must learn to breathe without a ventilator if one is to heal.<br />
<br />
Returning decision making to the will of the millions who make up the economy and the markets would not have been painless, but perhaps far less painful than what might lie ahead otherwise. Sadly, Ben Bernanke (Greenspan’s successor in 2006) didn’t have the flexibility, or temerity, of Paul Volcker. The crisis hit, and damage control preempted all other considerations. Current inflated asset values and a lethargic economy are the effect of eight years of ad hoc reactionary and experimental measures. The latent cost may be revealed as the Fed’s life support is removed.</div>
<b><br /></b>
(...)Now in the eighth year of the most extravagantly excessive monetary policy experiment ever, the Fed has enabled a bubble in domestic nonfinancial debt borrowed by households; non-financial businesses; federal, state, and local governments; as well as in the many nonproductive investments it financed. The over indebted economy is becoming even more so this year.<br />
<br />
(...) The broader story of debt, including that of the government, is told relative to GDP; as debt increases, it loses its potency to underwrite economic growth. Known as the “law of diminishing returns,” a fundamental economic principle, it plays a central role in productivity theory. In the decades before 2000, the number of dollars of debt necessary to create a dollar’s worth of growth in GDP steadily increased, averaging $1.70 of debt for every $1.00 growth in GDP. From 2000, the ratio doubled, requiring $3.30 of debt for each $1.00 increase in GDP. For the latest statistical year, ending September 30, 2016, it had risen still further, requiring $4.90 of debt to generate $1.00 in GDP.<br />
<br />
(...)While of no pressing concern for us as investors so long as we are aware, several very long-term (secular) trends do not bode well for economic growth getting out of its rut anytime soon, regardless of who resides in the White House or which party controls Congress. The digital-age optimism that permeates our culture, along with the belief that the technology revolution will be the wellspring of future growth, may have a tough time measuring up to the per-capita standard of living gains achieved from 1870 to 1970.6 Perhaps the future isn’t what it used to be. " (Martin capital management årsbrev 2016), Frank K Martin)<br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-31169471375540963492017-03-14T11:33:00.000-07:002017-03-14T11:37:40.460-07:00Byggpartner<i>Case: Byggpartner värderas relativt lågt, samtidigt som orderingången antyder att kommande året kommer bli ljust. Även ägarna signalerar genom köp av aktier eller ökad utdelning att året blir bra. Riskerna är framförallt </i><i>relaterad </i><i> till bolagets storlek och att enstaka kvartal i viss grad kan påverkas av enskilda projekt. Bolaget är även nynoterat och statistiskt går ipos sämre än börsen som helhet.</i><br />
<br />
Byggpartner är en byggnadsentreprenör som färdigställer större bostadsprojekt såsom flerbostadshus. Med en börskurs kring 42 kr erhålls ett p/e tal om 12 för 2016 och direktavkastningen blir 6%.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC-hBn93KppDOH4Ld46YrX4XaBxO5cBkw-IORGsxkaU94lH3X0iaec5EBfYc3ZmBhzAN4hTDt3VLi2poUUCfvV8ocTmo-UZtG4m8kUu8q1PSoc2QmcEIed1LdEi9fag7uGz9fo93kFj2bq/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC-hBn93KppDOH4Ld46YrX4XaBxO5cBkw-IORGsxkaU94lH3X0iaec5EBfYc3ZmBhzAN4hTDt3VLi2poUUCfvV8ocTmo-UZtG4m8kUu8q1PSoc2QmcEIed1LdEi9fag7uGz9fo93kFj2bq/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Det kan vara värt att notera att sista kvartalet 2016 påverkades negativt av försenade byggstarter. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8JYJKXPJWI6LrVqonN7LFthEGEZSsbSUJEgQMQYzAACaDmNVFvJO3njPaVr6WXK6t8UIryH5JO2IuJ0A1SErEeSJ5Pnd8WyQuOUn_03gX8An6W98qn14581FN9kGVJ5aauQoTGTaMoq73/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8JYJKXPJWI6LrVqonN7LFthEGEZSsbSUJEgQMQYzAACaDmNVFvJO3njPaVr6WXK6t8UIryH5JO2IuJ0A1SErEeSJ5Pnd8WyQuOUn_03gX8An6W98qn14581FN9kGVJ5aauQoTGTaMoq73/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Undantaget problemen i sista kvartalet så har orderingången varit väldigt stark och orderstocken är 30% högre än samma period föregående år. Givet att lönsamheten bibehålls kommer det bli en rejäl resultatökning om den ökade orderstocken omsätts i ökad omsättning. Risken är förstås att lönsamheten faller på grund av den hastiga omsättningsökningen.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Historiskt har resultatet och marginalerna pendlat, även om verksamheten över tid tyckts utvecklas i önskvärd riktning (se nedan). Man kan även se att konjunkturen har ett inflytande på omsättningen.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYtGOtSVppWKTXQnbXzdV9F_7negGKyhIHrlgAK8WxIYcQmv23jQFZM83feliMeyS1Uqaq6-NkOBzbYb9nxJjyacwHh8QQm9k9pBDRip04fN1g0feX6tFkjBHclXCSIFDRaJMrJpZzMIvF/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYtGOtSVppWKTXQnbXzdV9F_7negGKyhIHrlgAK8WxIYcQmv23jQFZM83feliMeyS1Uqaq6-NkOBzbYb9nxJjyacwHh8QQm9k9pBDRip04fN1g0feX6tFkjBHclXCSIFDRaJMrJpZzMIvF/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Balansräkningen kunde varit starkare för bolaget, dock är den inte extremt svag och det finns knappt några långfristiga lån. På grund av den starka orderingången valde styrelse att dela ut förhållandevis mycket av resultatet (70%).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPu9GVLqOmiS6OC_PNp-pY4LkHbsUtOY3mkIgJhRLJcbz40LMxuZJugptPs3MsX4p6PEk4oVWHyuoongyPDZB_G7Bb8ERP8Yhl95uqqCuAaPfdDXfFb0LaO0pdtUtmJJzD8edPmfOgwuI0/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPu9GVLqOmiS6OC_PNp-pY4LkHbsUtOY3mkIgJhRLJcbz40LMxuZJugptPs3MsX4p6PEk4oVWHyuoongyPDZB_G7Bb8ERP8Yhl95uqqCuAaPfdDXfFb0LaO0pdtUtmJJzD8edPmfOgwuI0/s400/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Ovanpå den positiva tongången i samband med utdelningshöjningen så har en av storägarna förvärvat aktier nyligen. Bo Olsson förvärv är kanske inte gigantiskt i relation till hans innehav i aktien, men förhoppningsvis har han en viss önskan om att kapitalet han köper för inte ska gå upp i rök.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLBoyma-Qohx608uqK0JOB0GOwTiePg9c-uFWkAYsJXcxMOOwfyzVHH3Kjxi6YFuQWQ0CPQzCuNV17CNrjJrTSD1v2qiYkb58-FDgXwy0tb4ciLlr4MC05m8vSN5LMlDVb5gMSvPNV9j40/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="118" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLBoyma-Qohx608uqK0JOB0GOwTiePg9c-uFWkAYsJXcxMOOwfyzVHH3Kjxi6YFuQWQ0CPQzCuNV17CNrjJrTSD1v2qiYkb58-FDgXwy0tb4ciLlr4MC05m8vSN5LMlDVb5gMSvPNV9j40/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Bolagsrisken är dock påtaglig och trots förvärvet av Bo Olsson kan man fråga sig varför ägarna valde att notera bolaget givet den stark orderingången. Kanske hade de kommit långt i processen och valde att ej avbryta trots den starka utvecklingen? Kanske ville riskkapitalbolaget Priveq ut och drev därför på processen? Eller kanske dumpas nu bolaget på börsen och nyblivna aktieägare får ta notan.<br />
<br />
Trots orosmomenten bör den förhållandevis låga värderingen och starka orderingången ge en god uppsida. Utdelningshöjningen och Olssons inköp av aktier bör ha minskat risken för att de nya ägarna kommer överraskas negativt.<br />
<br />
För Byggpartner kan enskilda projekt ha en betydande storlek och på grund av detta ökar bolagsrisken.<br />
<br />
<i>Om någon kan såga investeringen så mottags tacksamt dessa tankar.</i><br />
<br />
<b><u>Caveat emptor........................</u></b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "open sans" , "freesans" , "arial" , "helvetica"; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "open sans" , "freesans" , "arial" , "helvetica"; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">För er som håller på att bli <b>kroniska optimister</b> så föreslår jag att man har i åtanke Klarmans senaste tankar. Fortsatt bör man fokusera på sin egen självbevarelsedrift och ha i åtanke att denna marknaden är ytterst en reflektion av låga räntor, öppen centralbanksintervention och kortsiktighet</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "open sans" , "freesans" , "arial" , "helvetica"; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnPSAmEqX9PaMcfQCA2hizS1mkKitYCUBxSQJEQ7o6usIA_jmV58LtaETqGTzB3ZlzAUNkF07Y7cKK-gsNggotoRPi6Ju8rsMuwTXOzOlgXIFKJFB5E9ksrZNif6s4KkD_byYv8lO_sNcS/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnPSAmEqX9PaMcfQCA2hizS1mkKitYCUBxSQJEQ7o6usIA_jmV58LtaETqGTzB3ZlzAUNkF07Y7cKK-gsNggotoRPi6Ju8rsMuwTXOzOlgXIFKJFB5E9ksrZNif6s4KkD_byYv8lO_sNcS/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTo6pNI34zbUrj_lghn25RoBH82b83blVvYGGtzW1vMfVxWOVK9UBCsQiwRG4Epj4jsZfoH602TaoUH5kNv3fZkIaY2xinz5C6sz388hqzq9RhYmRyMq0VQxXttyVhdFYUL1M1hnf9rx11/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTo6pNI34zbUrj_lghn25RoBH82b83blVvYGGtzW1vMfVxWOVK9UBCsQiwRG4Epj4jsZfoH602TaoUH5kNv3fZkIaY2xinz5C6sz388hqzq9RhYmRyMq0VQxXttyVhdFYUL1M1hnf9rx11/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Eller som Klarman uttryckte det 2014, något mer alarmistiskt:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Welcome to “The Truman Show” market. In the 1998 film by that name, actor Jim Carrey is ignorant of the fact that his life is a hugely popular reality show. His every action, unbeknownst to him, is manipulated while being broadcast to millions of TV viewers worldwide. He seemingly lives in an idyllic seaside community where the manicured lawns are always green and the citizens are always happy. These people are, of course, actors. The world Truman inhabits turns out to be phony: a gigantic sound stage created for a manufactured “reality.” As Truman starts to unravel the truth, his anger erupts and chaos ensues.</span></span><br />
<em style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></em>
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, as in the movie, are the “creators” who have manufactured a similarly idyllic, if artificial, environment for today’s investors. </strong>They were the executive producers of “The Truman Show” of 2013. A global audience sat in rapt attention before this wildly popular production. Given the U.S. stock market’s continuing upsurge, Bernanke is almost certain to snag yet another People’s Choice Award for this psychological “thriller.” <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Even in “The Truman Show,” life was not as good as this for investors.</strong></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But there is one fly in the ointment: in Bernanke’s production,<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> all the Trumans – the economists, fund managers, traders, market pundits – know at some level that the environment in which they operate is not what it seems on the surface.</strong> The Fed and the Treasury openly discuss the aim of their policies: to manipulate financial markets higher and to generate reported economic “growth” and a “wealth effect.” Inside the giant Plexiglas dome of modern capital markets, just about everyone is happy, the few doubters are mocked and jeered, bad news is increasingly ignored, and markets go asymptotic. The longer QE continues, the more bloated the Fed balance sheet and the greater the risk from any unwinding. <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The artificiality of today’s markets is pure Truman Show</strong>. According to the Wall Street Journal (12/20/13), the Federal Reserve purchased about 90% of all the eligible mortgage bonds issued in November.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Like a few glasses of wine with dinner, the usual short-term performance pressures on most investors to keep up with the market serve to dull their senses, which makes it a bit easier to forget that they are being manipulated. But what is fake cannot be made real. As Jim Grant recently noted on CNBC, the problem is that <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“the Fed can change how things look, it cannot change what things are.”</strong> According to John Phelan, a fellow at the Cobden Centre in the U.K., <strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“the Federal Reserve has become an enabler of the financial havoc it was designed (a century ago) to prevent.”</strong></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Every Truman under Bernanke’s dome knows the environment is phony.</strong> But the zeitgeist so so damn pleasant, the days so resplendent, the mood so euphoric, the returns so irresistible, that no one wants it to end, and no one wants to exit the dome until they’re sure everyone else won’t stay on forever.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A marketplace of knowing Trumans seems even more unstable than the movie sound stage character slowly awakening to reality.</strong> Can the clued-in Trumans be counted on to maintain their complicity or will they go off-script? Will Fed actions reliably be met with the desired response? Will the program remain popular? Could “The Truman Show” be running out of material? After all, even Seinfeld ended.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.3; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.25em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Someday, the Fed’s show will be off the air and new programming will take its place.</strong> And people will debate just how good it really was. When the show ends, those self-deluded Trumans will be mad as hell and probably broke as well. Hopefully there will be no sequels.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday.</b></span></div>
<div style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free.</b></span></div>
<div style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, corporate failure will be permitted.</b></span></div>
<div style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, the economy will turn down again, and someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again c<span class="text_exposed_show" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">ome to favor capital preservation over speculation.</span></b></span></div>
<div style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be roughly commensurate with the risk.</b></span></span></div>
<div class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: #cccccc; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 5px 0px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Someday, professional investors will come to work and fear will have come to the markets and that fear will spread like wildfire. The news flow will be bad, and the markets will be tumbling.</b></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXg1TXNtNZtNJdPJLFd26veGHgSYUI7FPMCyi49gyBIe39IvHYr42wiNeN6KKXAzp6aS9IIwADNQ6x2uhQ6nPfkKn0OvYPZVlSkKIVOb5SCecRxA2Tdg5C8owNEBnIofdR-DskodmlSxoM/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXg1TXNtNZtNJdPJLFd26veGHgSYUI7FPMCyi49gyBIe39IvHYr42wiNeN6KKXAzp6aS9IIwADNQ6x2uhQ6nPfkKn0OvYPZVlSkKIVOb5SCecRxA2Tdg5C8owNEBnIofdR-DskodmlSxoM/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
(<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/why-robert-shiller-worried-market-way-overpriced" target="_blank">ZH</a>)Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-38015833145626688872017-02-25T12:07:00.000-08:002017-02-25T12:16:15.720-08:00Briljans eller idioti är svårt att skilja på idag! Klarmans Annual letter 2016!Senaste tiden har marknaden gått väldigt starkt och de positioner jag tagit har även överlag gått starkt. Jag anser inte att detta marknadsrally är rimligt då värderealisationer sker absurt snabbt och spekulanter sträcker sig allt mer efter avkastning.<br />
<br />
<b>Jag tror alla som investerar/spekulerar idag bör se över om man bara haft tur i en uppåtgående marknad eller det finns någon substans bakom uppvärderingen. Man bör ödmjukt fråga sig om man agerat som en idiot trots att utfallet blev positivt. </b><br />
<br />
Steve Romicks diskuterar en del av avarterna i dagens marknad i sin senaste <a href="http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/quarterly-commentaries-crescent-fund/crescent-q4-2016.pdf?sfvrsn=8" target="_blank">fondrapport </a>där han blandat annat diskuterar bolaget Deere. Notera den gröna linjen som anger vinst per aktie i bolaget och jämför utvecklingen med aktiekursen.<br />
<br />
"Where’s the margin of safety in the purchase of shares now trading at
21.8x trailing twelve month earnings? Deere’s mid-cycle earnings should be higher, which would make
the normalized valuation not quite as dear but we miss when such companies would trade as if the bad
times would last forever. We aren’t picking on Deere. There’s lots of stuff that crosses our desks that
hasn’t made much sense.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC6UmGcvg5MlakxJz9ZPH1Bxmp5-7x-y1_khE0FVdvNgrHp8fPxCn1FJdRUvMhfxZPXBUxIDTeV_k2w6q04kn_DfRB1OQV_WEwyY78eK2nWu7n4lGj93Gx1AwhGxYeYkNK2_s9x9tD4v6D/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC6UmGcvg5MlakxJz9ZPH1Bxmp5-7x-y1_khE0FVdvNgrHp8fPxCn1FJdRUvMhfxZPXBUxIDTeV_k2w6q04kn_DfRB1OQV_WEwyY78eK2nWu7n4lGj93Gx1AwhGxYeYkNK2_s9x9tD4v6D/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
For a spell, the stock prices of some companies will defy logic but that won’t last forever. Eventually,
fundamentals should prevail. In the interim, stock prices can trade anywhere. We hope to populate the
Fund with quality companies whose current earnings fail to appropriately reflect longer-term prospects.
Sadly, we’re finding a lot of Deeres out there, which explains that for as long as we can remember, we
went an entire quarter (Q3 2016) without initiating a new position."<br />
<br />
Marknaden börjar allt mer påminna om rallyt under slutet av 2014. Då ansåg jag att rallyt präglades av utbredd idioti och under slutet av rallyt skrev jag inlägget "<a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2015/02/manisk-fas.html" target="_blank">manisk fas?</a>". Idag anser jag inte att situationen är lika extrem och förmodligen kan rallyt fortsätta en tid till. Dock är det tydligt att denna marknaden i någon mening är för "bra" för att vara sann, om än inte lika extremt som 2014.<br />
<br />
Jag har också börjat reflektera över möjligheten att marknaden helt missförstått de politiska förändringar som sker globalt. Valet av Trump kan leda till handelskrig och Le Pen kan mycket väl bli vald 2017. I en större undersökning konstaterades att<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-15/only-20-europeans-want-muslim-immigration-continue-massive-poll-finds" target="_blank"> 61% av fransmännen vill ha ett totalstopp för invandring</a> från muslimska länder, vilket bör medföra att Le Pens chans att bli vald är större än de flesta tror. Blir Le Pen vald kan Frankrike få rösta om att vara med i EU.<br />
<br />
Marknaden verkar ha blivit otroligt bekväm och verkar tro att bara för att inte världen går under omedelbart till följd av brexit eller Trump kan inget negativt ske. Faktum är att denna marknadsuppgång är historiskt lång och den ekonomiska expansionen är även den långa, mycket kan med andra ord gå fel. Motargumentet är förstås att politiker generellt inte har särskilt stor influens på varken ekonomin eller samhället. Dock bör politiker kunna påverka när det gäller större vägval såsom EU och frihandel.<br />
<br />
Idag fortsätter jag bygga positioner i en del mindre bolag, men skriver i regel inte om alla positioner jag tar. Oftast skriver jag inte om vissa positioner på grund av bolagets storlek, eller att investeringen är av mer spekulativ natur. Jag skriver bara om de positioner som jag hade kunnat rekommendera till min mamma.<br />
<br />
Jag tror att en balans mellan risktagande och kapitalpreservation är fortsatt önskvärd. Var denna balansen ligger beror på varje individs privatliv, förmögenhet, risktolerans, jobb och sparhorisont. Vi lever i en unik tid där kanske de mest extrema medianvärderingarna på börsen och manipulation från centralbankerna lett till det kanske svåraste klimatet för värdeinvesterare någonsin. Denna marknadsuppgången är lång i USA, även om vi i Sverige bevittnat några betydande nedgångar under samma period.<br />
<br />
Jag tror det mesta här i världen är cykliskt och mycket möjligt kan även nedanstående visa sig vara cykliskt betingande:<br />
<br />
<b>Globalisering kontra protektionism</b><br />
<b>Populism kontra seriositet</b><br />
<b>Sparande kontra slösande</b><br />
<b>Skulduppbyggnad kontra amortering</b><br />
<b>Konservatism kontra liberalism</b><br />
<br />
För den som vet hur skulduppbyggnaden sett ut de senaste 40 åren så förstår man implikationerna om detta skulle gå på andra hållet.<br />
<br />
Exempel på en cyklisk aspekt är nedanstående. Observera att det var först 1980 som "export openness" nådde samma nivå som 1918 om man ska tro nedanstående graf.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIXqJL7GoRlrl1mp0DbV9keQGEhGYv7PKfnsmcJqCurOq9qfU8vN8MBR-BHlfIpkqehBsu2ipuS7yJpRaiPmindghtr-VjK1LVlQo53jYoBrpBKohoIs1lm3uUJQOt0es_2sG2br0hZo8j/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="491" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIXqJL7GoRlrl1mp0DbV9keQGEhGYv7PKfnsmcJqCurOq9qfU8vN8MBR-BHlfIpkqehBsu2ipuS7yJpRaiPmindghtr-VjK1LVlQo53jYoBrpBKohoIs1lm3uUJQOt0es_2sG2br0hZo8j/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Jag tror det är dags för ödmjuk reflektion över sin egen "briljans" eller "idioti" och börja föreställa sig ett betydligt sämre klimat än dagens. Givet marknadens bekymmerslösa attityd kan man fråga sig om ens ett val av Le Pen kan sätta stopp för detta. Vad som sker efter en liten period med Le Pen, givet att hon väljs, är svårare att säga. <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-17/another-bear-throws-towel-canadas-most-famous-investor-closes-bearish-hedges-after-h" target="_blank">Prem Watsa har helt avslutat Fairfaxs </a>negativa positioner mot marknaden och de flesta investerare med någon dignitet tycks följa med i marknadsrallyt. Därav tycker jag Klarman bäst sammanfattar situationen nedan:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin-YIgen9_rBsnjOb_96ikgl36tyL6AmcXAMYaEaCk8oxvR72L1hu7k6_PQCqmjNWbDy1ieq0tO8sOBnxehV6yaOzC4We3RHTX9LbFj4gc9is6xm_WItsMtfRdioUHqqj1ZaenIac0CCkR/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin-YIgen9_rBsnjOb_96ikgl36tyL6AmcXAMYaEaCk8oxvR72L1hu7k6_PQCqmjNWbDy1ieq0tO8sOBnxehV6yaOzC4We3RHTX9LbFj4gc9is6xm_WItsMtfRdioUHqqj1ZaenIac0CCkR/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<b><br /></b>
Mikael Syding gav också<a href="http://mikaelsyding.com/daoofcapital/" target="_blank"> ett allmänt gott fö</a>rhållningssätt:<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 9.0pt; margin-left: 18.75pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">1.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Patience</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">: Wait for good opportunities;
as long as it takes to find opportunities as identified by <i>your</i> system</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 9.0pt; margin-left: 18.75pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">2.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Resilience</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">: have a system that won’t
blow you up under any circumstances; whether you use stop-loss rules,
anti-leverage rules, diversification rules…</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 9.0pt; margin-left: 18.75pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;">3.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Self-discipline</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;">: Follow your rules of
patience and resilience. Don’t let your SL-levels glide. Specifically, don’t
let others or your emotions interfere with your strategy.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 9.0pt; margin-left: 18.75pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 14.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<b>Baupost årsbrev till investerare kan <a href="https://gofile.io/?c=IGs1mZ" target="_blank">laddas ner här</a>! Förslagsvis laddas det ner hastigt innan Baupost jurister tar ner skiten. Väldigt intressant läsning.</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG8HE3SLUttBifLBqRfGEhzNQutjtVvYkTGuDRdtdXBaM45q_PDMNkC8t0Tb1_JU1jOZg52-h9Dl7OT3XmRbI-91I03ZAraRJ88TS2QBspM7hMwRl9ziTGWccvD4bz3Ivj_wLoEh6q9uIz/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG8HE3SLUttBifLBqRfGEhzNQutjtVvYkTGuDRdtdXBaM45q_PDMNkC8t0Tb1_JU1jOZg52-h9Dl7OT3XmRbI-91I03ZAraRJ88TS2QBspM7hMwRl9ziTGWccvD4bz3Ivj_wLoEh6q9uIz/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHa3b5qF4PcWBvG9ZSzXrYQc5OFON81i294gzWT7j1UxZottuRo5MBhfkU5voSnz85t5TkmIAKfB6id32KI0Thag-GgQOUqlvZM0-zG4FqshEIDKciAergA49jTH9QTTebks20Q5i4aEIJ/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHa3b5qF4PcWBvG9ZSzXrYQc5OFON81i294gzWT7j1UxZottuRo5MBhfkU5voSnz85t5TkmIAKfB6id32KI0Thag-GgQOUqlvZM0-zG4FqshEIDKciAergA49jTH9QTTebks20Q5i4aEIJ/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
(...)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw9IqB_vPwioo8mC0tmLv3JKcFJRgU5PH6tnAE9-LkWNkSzmrxwL8Oo7CSJxW5MXQQASbSKY94XcS9NkAIvmJsgY4cEUImYLnPhiSXCgsD8fBhFBOnjUwZsvm0Otb65waN9xhbnZ0r1-IN/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw9IqB_vPwioo8mC0tmLv3JKcFJRgU5PH6tnAE9-LkWNkSzmrxwL8Oo7CSJxW5MXQQASbSKY94XcS9NkAIvmJsgY4cEUImYLnPhiSXCgsD8fBhFBOnjUwZsvm0Otb65waN9xhbnZ0r1-IN/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4fvqfzcAygpg4ZHeUHxihhDHMSb6Tu02pFJLa2Gv1UmNdorNArQ3MK0sl2iNLyVxYp5iK3kxxCn2QicZ7tWu-oGcCf7sI_w2f7bK_5tOMt0VlOXnr6feRfDIG_amAOSEh2lIwwXEAfrUv/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4fvqfzcAygpg4ZHeUHxihhDHMSb6Tu02pFJLa2Gv1UmNdorNArQ3MK0sl2iNLyVxYp5iK3kxxCn2QicZ7tWu-oGcCf7sI_w2f7bK_5tOMt0VlOXnr6feRfDIG_amAOSEh2lIwwXEAfrUv/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7LCaIUVEQxAtP-ZwECyP8lWkTt2DoO4Zcc20_Y92htZe5YH2oiQ2jFELwKxNEW3my-Lg1HoCACaXjKMRiIx5FmA0rLkUo6MlSy1yUhDnAoTwgE85yZfQodCd7vvEoeSKmQlyQYOG8uJi7/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7LCaIUVEQxAtP-ZwECyP8lWkTt2DoO4Zcc20_Y92htZe5YH2oiQ2jFELwKxNEW3my-Lg1HoCACaXjKMRiIx5FmA0rLkUo6MlSy1yUhDnAoTwgE85yZfQodCd7vvEoeSKmQlyQYOG8uJi7/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVG39m-hp1dT_FZ-lx8-Nz-YDFltKREyk43Ad4d1CUI-euWf6z-Ecba-STodXCuL2isKA7NAxt5x6lycxKb76m69LxHGrOUWrMajr1s_5FqEAB6oVID6FuxdRyQy_bys9QD8TPdLOw8tox/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="64" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVG39m-hp1dT_FZ-lx8-Nz-YDFltKREyk43Ad4d1CUI-euWf6z-Ecba-STodXCuL2isKA7NAxt5x6lycxKb76m69LxHGrOUWrMajr1s_5FqEAB6oVID6FuxdRyQy_bys9QD8TPdLOw8tox/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
(...)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin-YIgen9_rBsnjOb_96ikgl36tyL6AmcXAMYaEaCk8oxvR72L1hu7k6_PQCqmjNWbDy1ieq0tO8sOBnxehV6yaOzC4We3RHTX9LbFj4gc9is6xm_WItsMtfRdioUHqqj1ZaenIac0CCkR/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin-YIgen9_rBsnjOb_96ikgl36tyL6AmcXAMYaEaCk8oxvR72L1hu7k6_PQCqmjNWbDy1ieq0tO8sOBnxehV6yaOzC4We3RHTX9LbFj4gc9is6xm_WItsMtfRdioUHqqj1ZaenIac0CCkR/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-23294586604253639972017-02-07T11:30:00.000-08:002017-02-07T11:34:10.894-08:00Gott och blandat delux<br />
Jag tycker att intresset för alla dessa poddar är något oroande.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0000ee; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://vargenivalla.podbean.com/e/avsnitt-6-hitta-smabolagen-som-levererar/" target="_blank">https://vargenivalla.podbean.com/e/avsnitt-6-hitta-smabolagen-som-levererar/</a></span><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Kanske skulle man starta upp en egen podd där jag satt och höll en monolog för mig själv på skånska? Det hade kanske varit mysigt, även om ingen skulle förstå vad jag sa?</i><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">"Högern" etablerar sig i Europa</span></b><br />
<br />
Jag finner marknadsutvecklingen som skett intressant, särskilt med tanke på de politiska strömningar som man ser. I Frankrike kan Le Pen väljas, vilket skulle potentiellt innebär att Frankrike tar steget ur Euron. I Nederländerna går Geert Wilders framåt och därmed tycks en Nexit och en Frexit närmare än någonsin.<br />
<br />
Trump tycks röra sig i en riktning som innebär handelskrig med omvärlden, och alla de risker som detta innebär. Risken för en allt mer instabil politisk framtid tycks allt mer sannolik. Kommer dessa risker gestalta sig omedelbart? Troligtvis ej, men inom 1-2 år lär man se en något förändrad värld. Inget tycks stoppa marknaden, men förr eller senare kommer fokus riktas om, vilket kan resultera i en korrektion eller något mer substantiellt.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.85pt; margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/schiller-warns-us-stock-market-trump-effect-based-illusion" target="_blank">Rekommenderar även Shillers tankar kring Trump.</a><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Trevlig intervju med Taleb</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts" target="_blank">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts</a></b><br />
<br />
Talebs nya bok släpps förhoppningsvis snart. Får läsa om hans tidigare böcker innan dess!<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Utvärdera Nilörn under Q4 och spekulation i Traction</span></b><br />
<br />
Har skett ett rejält uppsving i de innehav som jag sedan tidigare "deklarerat" officiellt på denna bloggen. Jag kommer utvärdera Nilörn i samband med Q4 rapporten.<br />
<br />
Traction har fallit tillbaka något på grund av förståeliga orsaker. Jag kunde knappt tro mina ögon när jag såg att Traction handlades till 205 kr per aktie och jag började fundera på att minska. Några timmar senare började aktien kollapsa. Jag misstänker att en större köpare kombinerat med spekulativa privatpersoner drev upp aktien så högt.<br />
<br />
Jag har uppskattat Tractions substansvärde till något över 170 kr per aktie och jag anser att aktien bör befinna sig någonstans i ett intervall mellan 10% substansrabatt och 10% substanspremie. Familjen Stillström har historiskt skött sig mycket bra och framförallt har familjen Stillström lyckats upprätthålla ett kontinuerligt riskfokus som gestaltat sig i form av en betydande kassa historiskt.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Veckans "komiska" ("rasistiska") inslag</span></b><br />
<br />
Gillar man inte fakta, så kan man beställa <a href="https://www.dintidning.se/kalle-anka-pocket?kampanj=KP2745&gclid=CIXT5sPb_tECFVTcGQodkVUJQg" target="_blank">kalle ankas pockets här</a>.<br />
<br />
För en tid sedan skrev jag nedanstående rader:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">"I Sverige uppskattas det att det går 123 stycken pojkar på 100 flickor i åldersgruppen 16-17 år! Detta kan jämföras med det otroligt skeva landet Kina där det går 117 pojkar per 100 flickor. Vad kommer ske om dessa individer inte kan få jobb av förståeliga anledning (dålig utbildning+dålig svenska)? Vad händer om de inte ens kan hitta någon att sätta på? Jag skulle personligen vara jävligt förbannad, men det är bara jag. Jag sitter förstås inne med grava aggressionsproblem så jag kanske inte är helt representativ i sammanhanget." ( <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2016/06/den-humanitara-stormakten-sverige-och.html" target="_blank">tidigare inlägg</a>)</span><br />
<br />
Personligen tycker jag nedanstående studie gjord av NTU tillför ett intressant perspektiv, men det är förmodligen bara anmälningsgraden som ökat de senaste 4 åren.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJCVMYqxE4kIWR4QhfOuK7myS2tgioZJOtpuwRQ70OijyVgqJK-LkIhlfzGtEqzR0eUgmKrI71N8iUG-EWFhu5itDgh7qXvKvYD3S_GrYeupe_u44bLaFaTWMi8vsWBRLpvCA34Dh_9Qed/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJCVMYqxE4kIWR4QhfOuK7myS2tgioZJOtpuwRQ70OijyVgqJK-LkIhlfzGtEqzR0eUgmKrI71N8iUG-EWFhu5itDgh7qXvKvYD3S_GrYeupe_u44bLaFaTWMi8vsWBRLpvCA34Dh_9Qed/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexualbrott.html" target="_blank">http://www.bra.se/bra/brott-och-statistik/valdtakt-och-sexualbrott.html</a><br />
<br />
Nästa komiska inslag består av vad jag väljer att kalla "gettofiering" av landsbygden. Filipstad ligger i Värmland och staden är på väg mot konkurs. Filipstad är en avfolkningsort och starkt beroende av ett fåtal stora arbetsgivare. Arbetsmarknaden är med andra ord inte särskilt dynamisk eller anpassningsbar, men nu efter att Filipstad tagit emot 2300 flyktingar på 10 000 invånare så kommer detta säkerligen förändras!<br />
<br />
<i>Här ligger Filipstad</i><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygrkUNM0jOhr6g1govS_foFeNdzNXKxoCDlAGXTyV8AETpiaiKIZr7yMCb-wlqIANLUTZxa3KtR428IOSGZOeZdqqRsBexm72WIGioMlNzf3dI0vkr1tYuswvz2h2soVVa6myA_wqd-vC/s1600/filipstad.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygrkUNM0jOhr6g1govS_foFeNdzNXKxoCDlAGXTyV8AETpiaiKIZr7yMCb-wlqIANLUTZxa3KtR428IOSGZOeZdqqRsBexm72WIGioMlNzf3dI0vkr1tYuswvz2h2soVVa6myA_wqd-vC/s400/filipstad.PNG" width="335" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "sorts mill goudy" , serif; font-size: 22px;">"– Vi var på väg mot konkurs, säger Frölander.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "sorts mill goudy" , serif; font-size: 22px;">Han syftar på utgifterna för socialbidrag. Men den akuta krisen handlade inte bara om pengar utan var i viss mån existentiell. Vad är Filipstad, vad ska Filipstad bli?</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "sorts mill goudy", serif; font-size: 22px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "sorts mill goudy" , serif; font-size: 22px;">– Kommunen har 10 800 invånare. <b>Vi har 2 300 flyktingar</b>. Det motsvarar i procent hur det ser ut i Libanon, säger Frölander. På två år har det kommit lika många flyktingar som de 15 föregående." (</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "sorts mill goudy" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px;"><a href="http://arbete.story.aftonbladet.se/chapter/de-nyanlanda/" target="_blank">http://arbete.story.aftonbladet.se/chapter/de-nyanlanda/</a>)</span></span><br />
<br />
Invånarna i denna staden reagerar förstås på förväntat sätt under riksdagsvalet 2014 och det blir intressant att följa upp utvecklingen 2018:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 20px;">"I värmländska Filipstad ökade SD från 6 procent av rösterna i riksdagsvalet till 21,5 procent. "</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold;">(</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><b><a href="http://www.dn.se/valet-2014/sverige-ar-mitt-land-filipstad-ar-min-stad/" target="_blank">http://www.dn.se/valet-2014/sverige-ar-mitt-land-filipstad-ar-min-stad/</a>)</b></span></span><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Detta är vad svensk migrationspolitik mynnat ut i, ett experiment där ideologi tillåts styra istället för verkligheten. Ett godhetsprojekt där människor kan berätta för sin omgivning (Annie Lööf) hur fantastiskt goda de är, utan att ta någon hänsyn till potentiella konsekvenser av sitt goda handlande.</b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">"Utrikes födda står för ungefär 17 procent av befolkningen och andra generationens invandrare för ytterligare fem procent. Utrikes födda utgör trots detta 53 procent av dem med långa fängelsestraff, 54 procent av de arbetslösa och gruppen mottar 60 procent av de utbetalda socialbidragen. 71 procent av Sveriges barnfattigdom finns bland hushåll med utländsk bakgrund, medan 76 procent av medlemmarna i kriminella gäng har invandrarbakgrund." (</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><a href="http://www.bokus.com/bok/9789198378702/massutmaning/" target="_blank">http://www.bokus.com/bok/9789198378702/massutmaning/</a>)</span></span><br />
<br />
Notera att bland gruppen utrikesfödda om 17% ingår en stor grupp finnar och andra västeuropeer. Hade statistiken varit mer ingående hade det framgått att vissa grupperingar är än mer överrepresenterade.Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-18032199625066881082017-01-16T04:42:00.000-08:002017-01-16T04:45:44.728-08:00TGS nopec och Peter Gyllenhammar<br />
Jag har uttryckt mig väldigt negativ kring TGS nopec i tidigare inlägg och aktiens utveckling har verkligen förvånat mig. Efter att initialt fallit har aktien återhämtat sig på fascinerande sätt. Vem är det som köper? Är dessa individer influerade <b>av några preparat</b>?<br />
<br />
Den blåa linjen i grafen är oljeprisets utveckling. och den gröna är TGS nopecs utveckling. TGS nopec är ett oljeservice bolag som är starkt beroende av oljepriset för att sälja sina tjänster. Kontrasten mellan oljepriset och TGS nopec är häpnadsväckande, även om den starkare dollarn delvis kan förklara uppgången.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbncL1Yi2GFmhMsyCv4lZMFS4gmDiHO7Png9Wwdttp3DqV5SnF4Pu4j4BfjS5xOZrpe1_UX_vmhgs-ts0aAfmxmCjEIwmvSQebMi4qeQ9Ec6DPktSuJnfD58y20ug_C2lZjg0vf-dFfhGB/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="556" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbncL1Yi2GFmhMsyCv4lZMFS4gmDiHO7Png9Wwdttp3DqV5SnF4Pu4j4BfjS5xOZrpe1_UX_vmhgs-ts0aAfmxmCjEIwmvSQebMi4qeQ9Ec6DPktSuJnfD58y20ug_C2lZjg0vf-dFfhGB/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Under början av 2015 skrev jag nedanstående om bolag i oljesektorn (då stod TGS nopec i 179 nok per aktie):<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
"Det framstår som att de flesta marknadsaktörer är övertygade om att oljan snart kommer stå på 100 dollar igen. Jag kan bara säga att jag inte vet och att säkerhetsmarginal bland de flesta oljebolagen är låg om oljan förblir låg under en längre period. Det ser ut som att USA produktion av olja minskar och denna faktorn rör sig i rätt riktning. Faktorer såsom framtida efterfråga, OPEC och Iran förblir svåra att säga något om. </div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
Nedan följer ett fåtal grafer på ett fåtal av bolagen som jag är intresserad av i oljesektorn. Det framstår som att börsen är så framåtblickande att den prisar in en uppgång i oljepriset innan denna uppgång skett och marknaden är med andra ord väldigt framåtblickande." (<span style="background-color: transparent;"><a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2015/11/narstaende-oljeuppgang.html" target="_blank">här</a>)</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<br /></div>
Efter ett större fall har aktien återhämtat sig och marknadsaktörerna har återigen blivit extremt framåtblickande. Nedanstående bör ge en indikation om hur extremt jag anser TGS nopec rört sig? Vem är det som köper här? Var är säkerhetsmarginalen?<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>Kursen 2014 låg kring 170-190 och kursen ligger nu på 195.</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
TGS nopecs vinst och omsättning mellan Q1-Q3 2014 och 2016:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Omsättning 2014: 617 miljoner USD,<br />
EBIT 2014: 247 miljoner USD<br />
Net Income 2014 : 184 miljoner USD.<br />
<br />
Omsättning 2016: 291 miljoner USD<br />
EBIT 2016: 11 miljoner USD<br />
Net income 2016: negativ.<br />
<br />
<b>Omsättningen för TGS nopec har mer än halverats och rörelseresultatet har decimerats? Utdelningen har även den slaktats? Återigen, vem är det som köper?</b><br />
<br />
TGS nopec är för mig ett typexempel på att marknaden beter sig väldigt lustigt ibland, kanske har jag förstås fel och är bara inte tillräckligt framåtblickande kring oljepriset! TGS skriver hastigt ner sina kartor, men omsättningen har fortfarande kollapsat. Om oljepriset hastigt når 100 USD per fat så undviker aktieägarna att bli slaktad, annars bör aktien i min mening falla rejält.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Peter Gyllenhammar</u></b><br />
<br />
Tractions innehav i Duroc fick en rejäl sväng uppåt i samband med att Duroc skulle gå ihop med ett av Peter Gyllenhammares bolag. Traction gillar jag i dagsläget för att de är defensiva, men tar samtidigt viss del av börsens utveckling. Min tanke är att äga Traction mycket länge och öka om den faller tillbaka till mer attraktiva nivåer.<br />
<br />
För de som inte är bekanta med Peter Gyllenhammar rekommenderas<a href="https://vardebyran.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/vem-ar-peter-gyllenhammar/" target="_blank"> värdebyråns</a> inlägg om denne.<br />
<br />
Från forumet på Avanza hitta jag årsredovisningen för <a href="http://pg-ab.se/101-peter-gyllenhammar-AB.pdf" target="_blank">Peter Gyllenhammar AB </a> (PGAB) från den 30 juni 2015 och nedan följer intressanta utdrag:<br />
<br />
(<i>Allt material är stulet från Peter Gyllenhammar AB)</i><br />
<br />
<i><b>Först berättar Gyllenhammar om hur han betala 50 MSEK för ett bolag som sedan efter hårt arbete (5 år) generera 50 MSEK i vinst före skatt.</b></i><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKav_IJU1qhomSpkvbNzxaWECMlrQocMoGLEhkqA7hV3LmBjcGnZ1IvncGS6PECjB4Vl10EX0fSY6eykGXbyIvSLTCxvRDqwft6VJB8UPXZPPU4ssKkF9JKqQWaQdL-FczzwtKsR7bUTbr/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKav_IJU1qhomSpkvbNzxaWECMlrQocMoGLEhkqA7hV3LmBjcGnZ1IvncGS6PECjB4Vl10EX0fSY6eykGXbyIvSLTCxvRDqwft6VJB8UPXZPPU4ssKkF9JKqQWaQdL-FczzwtKsR7bUTbr/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Gyllenhammar beskriver sedan hur finansiell ingenjörskonst präglar dagens marknad</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8R7Hhw0VyZB4QJKaK2WXBK5t1N_EQxMIuPangsBvpSqm-kQF3l9LV0rqFQSZwgiem32FI2qG-Q-wI4tKQxzj5CRLPKsT_zGNmR0-i8tm7tFxtZo14oHwaQPqA7rL1DT78lV77d2dcAYmz/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8R7Hhw0VyZB4QJKaK2WXBK5t1N_EQxMIuPangsBvpSqm-kQF3l9LV0rqFQSZwgiem32FI2qG-Q-wI4tKQxzj5CRLPKsT_zGNmR0-i8tm7tFxtZo14oHwaQPqA7rL1DT78lV77d2dcAYmz/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Här beskriver Gyllenhammar hur finansiell ingenjörskonst kan gå till, mycket intressant. Det sägs att riskkapitalbolag kan sälja vidare bolag 3 gånger och skapa "värde" genom ökad belåning och goodwill. Efter att bolaget sålts 3 gånger mellan riskkapitalbolagen krävs det ett långsiktigt ägande och förmodligen att någon styr upp sörjan. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOzjPdX9849BNI7WwGBhtJJU8OVkhM7GeBE9LS4Rt394Hcs90dAxCv6njz1tts7thQfYugXkDOYjpZjgdBtXMVx0B6PCd3gtWqtIIt9PmR4VLjnpEUwpNPIgC9TZ5mHE1r22P9gTOL5GND/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOzjPdX9849BNI7WwGBhtJJU8OVkhM7GeBE9LS4Rt394Hcs90dAxCv6njz1tts7thQfYugXkDOYjpZjgdBtXMVx0B6PCd3gtWqtIIt9PmR4VLjnpEUwpNPIgC9TZ5mHE1r22P9gTOL5GND/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlw8tvcBLzSOUJiJmfNebBCoftj-J7uUoEonFv0iHi_Q_VIoc_TLILQLraZZstXdXQAJCwzewY38IBvpDi4w7q5xg2qaIsQXs63L1sYfV-rXnNX7P-E4-SbEb_OqIVK53qqRB_475sGltt/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlw8tvcBLzSOUJiJmfNebBCoftj-J7uUoEonFv0iHi_Q_VIoc_TLILQLraZZstXdXQAJCwzewY38IBvpDi4w7q5xg2qaIsQXs63L1sYfV-rXnNX7P-E4-SbEb_OqIVK53qqRB_475sGltt/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Sedan kommer lite allmän optimism från Gyllenhammar</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm7LpF4ri4QrSdP0dq131ntmzoqJLxU-uTiTN6Xlw2MIPPNNOs8AzjNcUdVVLLRpXXP4FWzwizmi-ddZQrkIKiGvvJ_UGnWX5TgDESNOKNXn06XflHzbU0hdP8EWNd-w0-dHNQwEjFHXGN/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm7LpF4ri4QrSdP0dq131ntmzoqJLxU-uTiTN6Xlw2MIPPNNOs8AzjNcUdVVLLRpXXP4FWzwizmi-ddZQrkIKiGvvJ_UGnWX5TgDESNOKNXn06XflHzbU0hdP8EWNd-w0-dHNQwEjFHXGN/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy16wBX8RwaofKzJka3OlOtSaRVXZVqDXIUo5qFG3BMmp5Wu7EAjzcDYwJIGdYjeqC5ezilY47Mq2SWdxbrxE-Pl5Tx5kBHTBwyzCBtSqlizTRf3dcXHzLZVVcxSSGcemi2JXDX8Y7x7P-/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy16wBX8RwaofKzJka3OlOtSaRVXZVqDXIUo5qFG3BMmp5Wu7EAjzcDYwJIGdYjeqC5ezilY47Mq2SWdxbrxE-Pl5Tx5kBHTBwyzCBtSqlizTRf3dcXHzLZVVcxSSGcemi2JXDX8Y7x7P-/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Gyllenhammars tankar om inflation</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycHGkivCwkGzRBoc5n0pg-5OqLkZPPmp8D_ptu_eRrIOmsxX-uynRNKAq0fUWq5tWfvNUKJ6bmomfABFxN4jugkbscRkPlAvO3Rrj5pwzBlX_YF3OzowvTOSWlubEED4FYgHBaJcoc1AU/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycHGkivCwkGzRBoc5n0pg-5OqLkZPPmp8D_ptu_eRrIOmsxX-uynRNKAq0fUWq5tWfvNUKJ6bmomfABFxN4jugkbscRkPlAvO3Rrj5pwzBlX_YF3OzowvTOSWlubEED4FYgHBaJcoc1AU/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTJwaJzo7PRRAxhHcSGDCHr1mseMfnaJUrune8RuhS4cxoJFPI2zYyxCYPVd-xuixk9Biy1LWTCG61pQ2c8B0f6wwJMo0Sr5iQtwRVjpIUF6HFyFlQ3cJqe9Z0h5NNmFXEtr5FWAuusREu/s1600/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTJwaJzo7PRRAxhHcSGDCHr1mseMfnaJUrune8RuhS4cxoJFPI2zYyxCYPVd-xuixk9Biy1LWTCG61pQ2c8B0f6wwJMo0Sr5iQtwRVjpIUF6HFyFlQ3cJqe9Z0h5NNmFXEtr5FWAuusREu/s640/Sk%25C3%25A4rmklipp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Väldigt intressanta grafer frå<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-14/realvisions-15-killer-charts-q1-2017" target="_blank">n RealVision synes h</a>är, Real Visions tycks tro på fortsatt marknadsuppgång!<br />
<br />
<br />Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7216031300257862944.post-3216793994185280612016-12-28T14:28:00.002-08:002016-12-28T14:32:57.769-08:00William White 2.0Av en slump hade jag möjlighet att träffa en väldigt trevlig individ på en arbetsplats för någon vecka sedan. Individ heter från och med nu "Pär". Mitt i ett samtal med Pär rusade en kvinnlig kollega till Pär in och frågade om han fått aktierna han tecknat?<br />
<br />
När den kvinnliga kollegan gick ut frågade jag Pär om han var intresserad av aktier, vilket han visade sig vara. Uppenbarligen hade Pär insett att teckna man aktier inför en notering så gick de i regel upp och det var därför han gillade att teckna aktier. Pär berättade även om hur han satt och hoppades att marknaden skulle falla kraftigt när Trump valdes för då skulle han kunna gå in och köpa "billigt".<br />
<br />
Uppenbarligen har Pär hittat en fungerande strategi och <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/65-days-9-hours-incredible-shrinking-life-market-crashes" target="_blank">beviset för att denna strategin fungerar finnes här</a>, eller som en placerare beskrev det:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> "the pattern </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">of fading a potential crisis and then scrambling to cover and get long when everyone takes a breath and realizes that this time </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">not the apocalypse either still holds more than ever</span><strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">. I can’t justify any of this. The lesson investors and traders are getting is that everything is a buying opportunity and you need to not miss the boat</strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">. </span><strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Brexit? Bullish. Trump winning the election? Bullish. Italy saying no to the referendum and the Prime Minister handing in his resignation? Bullish.</strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> Heck, all we need is a coup d’etat in India and the entire Belgian banking system to go kablooey and the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 by Christmas Eve" (</span><span style="font-family: "lucida_granderegular" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-05/wall-street-analysts-are-slowly-losing-it" target="_blank">här</a>)</span></span><br />
<br />
Jag har tidigare skrivit om William White <a href="http://jordholmen.blogspot.se/2016/02/buy-and-hold-och-smasparare.html" target="_blank">här</a> och han är en av få större ekonomiska tänkare. William White och hans kollegor gav kraftfulla varningar angående ekonomin under Greenspanns välde. Riskerna White talar om är inte negligerbara, vilket kan ses på den amerikanska fastighetsmarknaden där priserna nått samma nivåer eller högre (justerat för <a href="https://twitter.com/MrMarkHanson/status/802204826268356608" target="_blank">inflationen) som 2005</a>. Om man föredrar att läsa William Whites artikel i sin helhet finnes den <a href="http://www.williamwhite.ca/sites/default/files/11369_2016_12_OnlinePDF.pdf" target="_blank">här</a>.<br />
<br />
"The global situation we face today is arguably more
fraught with danger than was the case when the crisis
first began. By encouraging still more credit and debt
expansion, monetary policy has ‘‘dug the hole deeper.’’
The fundamental analytical mistake has been to model
the economy as an understandable and controllable
machine rather than as a complex, adaptive system.
This mistake also implies that the suggestion that
central banks should necessarily reduce the ‘‘financial
rate of interest,’’ in response to a presumed fall in the
‘‘natural rate,’’ is overly simplistic. In practice, ultraeasy
policy has not stimulated aggregate demand to the
degree expected but has had other unexpected consequences.
Not least, it poses a threat to financial stability
and to potential growth going forward. Further,
‘‘exit’’ threatens to be delayed in many countries,
underlining the dangerous fact that the global economy
has no nominal anchor. Much better would be policies,
introduced by other arms of government, that would
recognize that the fundamental problem is not inadequate
liquidity but excessive debt and possible insolvencies.
The policy stakes are now very high.<br />
<br />
(...)In this presentation I will try to trace the origins of
the crisis, and the particular contribution made by
expansionary monetary policies before (unnaturally
easy) and after (ultra-easy) the crisis broke. I will contend that the situation we face in late 2016, both in
the advanced market economies (AMEs) and the
emerging market economies (EMEs), is arguably
more fraught with danger than was the case when the
crisis first began. By encouraging still more credit and
debt expansion, monetary policy has dug the hole still
deeper.<br />
<br />
(...)The fundamental
ontological error has been to model the
economy as a relatively simple machine, whose
properties can thus be known and controlled by its
policy operator. In reality, it is an evolving system,
too complex to be either well understood or closely
controlled. Moreover, it is a system in which stocks
and ‘‘imbalances’’ build up over time in response to
monetary stimulus. This reality makes future prospects
totally path dependent, and we are on a bad
path.<br />
<br />
(...)How did we get into this mess? I want to suggest that
monetary policy, guided by flawed theory, has played
a big role even if other agents also contributed
materially. The flawed theory is, essentially, that
growth and job creation deemed to be inadequate are
solely due to inadequate demand and that this can
always be remedied with expansionary monetary
policy. Moreover, it is assumed that such policies do
not have significant undesirable side effects. They are,
therefore, the proverbial ‘‘free lunch.’<br />
<br />
(...)In short, in the aftermath of the crisis, ultra-easy
monetary policy soon became ‘‘the only game in
town.’’ Unfortunately, monetary policy shares the
shortcoming of all the other policies. Its effectiveness
decreases over time, while its negative side effects
increase over time.<br />
<br />
(...)These are not just theoretical considerations. The
BIS Annual Report of 2014 sounded the alarm when it
noted that the level of debt in the AMEs (sum of
corporate, household, and governments) was then
significantly higher than it had been in 2007. Moreover,
it has since risen further, to over 260 percent of
GDP. This increase has prompted the question
‘‘Deleveraging? What deleveraging?’’ This suggests
that, by following polices that have actively discouraged
deleveraging, we may instead have set ourselves
up for an even more serious crisis in the future.<br />
<br />
(...)There are clearly grounds for believing that monetary
policy, both before and since the crisis, has contributed
to a reduction in the level of potential or even
its growth rate. In fact, both seem to have declined
sharply in AMEs in recent years. As Schumpeter
might have put it, without destruction there can be no
creation. It is a fact that in many countries, the entry of
new firms and the exit of old ones has been on a
declining trend. Worse, if easy money actually lowers
potential growth, and this induces still more easy
money, the possibility of a vicious downward spiral is
clear.<br />
<br />
(...)Moreover, as perceptions changed as to
whether monetary policy would be effective or not,
market reactions have bifurcated. When the mood is
positive, financing flows (Risk On) to more risky
assets, and when the mood is negative the opposite
occurs (Risk Off). This focus of RORO investors,
essentially on tail risks, seriously reduces the longerrun
benefits of diversification and of value investing<br />
<br />
(...)As of mid-2016, we observed
record high equity prices, record low (even negative)
bond yields for ‘‘riskless’’ assets, high-yield spreads
back down from February levels, record low costs of
cover (e.g.: the Vix), the return of cov-lite and Payment
in Kind (PIK) financing, and a general lowering
of lending standards. Broadly speaking, the levels of
prices in financial markets today look as stretched as
they did in 2007 just before the crisis erupted<br />
<br />
(...)<b>4. The Need for ‘‘Exit’’ and Possible End
Games </b><br />
<br />
Simple uncertainty about the full effects (not only
unexpected but potentially undesirable) of today’s
radical monetary policies might, in itself, seem to
argue powerfully for their moderation What has been
done is totally unprecedented and totally experimental. But there is another no less powerful argument
for eventual exit. If the effects on aggregate demand
decline with time, while the undesired side effects
cumulate with time, at some point these two functions
must intersect. At that point, monetary policy would
have to be judged to be doing more harm than good.
At this due date, ‘‘exit’’ would then be warranted.
Finally, and more in keeping with the conventional
wisdom, exit would be warranted if there signs of
emerging inflationary pressures. This danger seems
greater today in the U.S. than elsewhere.<br />
<br />
(...)the best I can do is suggest certain scenarios. In
any event, one characteristic of complex systems is
that precise forecasting is literally impossible. In the
scenarios I sketch out, polices other than monetary
policy are taken as given. I proceed from the most
optimistic to the least optimistic outcomes<br />
<br />
A first scenario assumes a happy ending, though
even that is not guaranteed. Suppose that significantly
faster growth does reemerge in the global economy, and that bond markets react in an ‘‘orderly’’ way.
Thus, monetary policy could begin to tighten and low
bond rates would move up only slowly. Ideally, they
would rise less than the increased nominal growth
rate, implying a gradual reduction in the burden of
debt over time. In this assumed world, current high
equity prices and tight risk spreads might seem generously
valued, but they would be fundamentally
justified by future growth prospects.<br />
<br />
(...)If there are risks to the optimistic scenario, there are
even darker possibilities. The current, relatively slow
pattern of global growth could continue or even weaken
further. The secular factors suggested by Gordon [2016]
could contribute to this, as could the accumulating
headwinds of debt. In this case, both policy rates and
longer-term risk-free rates would be expected to stay
very low. However, in this environment, current equity
prices and narrow risk spreads will be increasingly seen
as unrealistic. Resulting sharp declines in the prices of
such financial assets are likely to catch out many
speculators and could, potentially, do further harm to
banking systems in countries already affected by the
crisis. Unaffected AMEs, where household debt and
property prices have continued to rise since 2007, might
be particularly badly hit. Banks everywhere will, in any
event, be further weakened by slow growth that raises
the number of non-performing loans. Both the demand
for and the supply of credit will remain very subdued, as
in Italy today.<br />
<br />
In this scenario, the current low level of inflation
(in the AMEs) seems likely to decelerate further. As
noted above, while falling prices would exacerbate the
real burden of debt service, the likelihood seems small
that price decreases would be extrapolated into the
future and spending held back in anticipation. Nevertheless,
given the biases noted above (leading to
‘‘exit’’ being delayed), still more aggressive use of
monetary policy would likely be the chosen option to
respond to this slow growth, with central bank balance
sheets expanding still further.<br />
<br />
<br />
On the one hand, further monetary expansion
might finally succeed in promoting more spending and
the expansion of the real economy. Deflationary
expectations might then be avoided. Logically, the
possibility cannot be ruled out that the tepid response
of spending to the monetary stimulus to date has been
simply due to the stimulus being too small. On the
other hand, there is also the possibility that this process
might get out of hand. Still more monetary
expansion might cause inflationary expectations to
finally ratchet sharply upward, leading to a sudden fall
in the demand for both base money and broader stocks
of money as well. While the demand for real assets
would rise, the effects on current production of significantly
higher levels of inflation are harder to predict
but could well be negative.<br />
<br />
A sudden speeding up of the inflationary process
would be more likely in countries where both government
deficits and debts were initially very large.
Thus, governments would have to borrow but could
not get adequate private sector financing. This would
raise expectations of ‘‘fiscal dominance’’ further
eroding the private sector’s demand for government
paper. Bernholz [2006] has pointed out that such
processes, potentially leading to hyperinflation, are
not uncommon in history. Such outcomes would also
be consistent with those described in the famous
article by Sargent and Wallace [1981]. At the
moment, Japan is clearly the country to watch in this
regard. Should the Bank of Japan opt for still more
monetary stimulus, this danger would obviously
increase." (<a href="http://www.williamwhite.ca/sites/default/files/11369_2016_12_OnlinePDF.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.williamwhite.ca/sites/default/files/11369_2016_12_OnlinePDF.pdf</a>)Jordholmenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558266756672696633noreply@blogger.com0