lördag 24 mars 2018

Frank K Martin och Vito Maida senaste tankar.

https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2018/03/var-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html

"16% av alla börsbolag på de amerikanska börserna är sk zombieföretag. De kan inte betala räntorna på sina skulder utifrån ens sin vinst före skatter, ränta, avskrivningar och amorteringar (EBITDA), eller om man så vill ungefär kassaflödet. Så dåliga siffror har man tidigare sett efter IT-kraschen eller finanskrisen. Inte före när allt ska vara guld och gröna skogar." (Lars Wilderäng)


(https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/977332175258337280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.cornubot.se%2F2018%2F03%2Fvar-sjatte-amerikanskt-borsbolag-kan.html&tfw_creator=Cornubot&tfw_site=Cornubot)

Vito Maidas, PCM 2017-12

"After several years of smooth and steady increases, equity markets provided a very small dose of realism over the past several weeks. Markets dropped on several days as investors became concerned about rising interest rates. While the headlines were quite dramatic, the declines were small in percentage terms and the markets quickly made up most of their losses. Given the extreme levels of overvaluation, these drops are not nearly enough to put companies that meet our standards for value and quality into our buy range.

 The recent market volatility highlights the risk posed by the rush into passive investments and automated trading strategies. These strategies are very similar to the elements that resulted in 1987’s market crash. Back then, institutional investors believed that they each had a proprietary computerized system that would automatically get them out of the market once it started to go down. What they didn’t realize was that everybody else had a similar program. When the market turned negative, all of the programs were activated at the same time. It was like a herd of elephants trying to get through a very small door. The result was Black Monday; a one day drop in equity prices of 25%.

Today’s passive investment and automated strategies have the potential to cause such an event again. The difference this time is that the dollars are substantially larger and the computers faster and more powerful. Should an exogenous event such as a political or geopolitical crisis materialize, these strategies and/or programs could be the “accelerant on the fire”. "


Frank K Martins brev till investerare för 2017 (min fetstil)

"The fiscal and monetary policy remedies that began in 2008 to prevent a repeat of the 1930s achieved their stopgap measures, at least temporarily. The subsequent compounding of mispricings, malinvestments, and other distortions—to say nothing of substandard economic performance and growing instability—leaves us wondering whether the tin can of inevitable consequences was simply kicked down the road. Returning to Hayek, we think it not totally unreasonable that the post-2008 intervention may ultimately be remembered as an “undisputed failure.”

(...)  Further, while consumers are spending more, they also are spending more than they have! Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the average U.S. household spent 94% of its 2017 annual income on consumer goods (including medical expenses) and spent another 10% servicing debt—mortgage and consumer. The math looks odd, because the resulting expenditures (104%) exceed total income. Considering the 2.4% savings rate, households outspent their incomes by 6.4%. (Does this sound like any federal government you know?!) That excess was satisfied by consumer-credit expansion of $551 billion. Comparatively, GDP grew by $513 billion. Positive consumer sentiment can only drive sustainable economic growth if consumers have sufficient funds to maintain spending. Whatever growth we see in consumer spending today has largely been bought on credit that must be repaid tomorrow. Sadly, as noted parenthetically above, profligate Uncle Sam has not set a good example.

(...)These are just samples of the problems in the universe of exchange-traded products, but even more complicated versions exist. Exchange traded notes (ETNs), for example, are packaged derivatives on futures contracts, wholly reliant on the solvency of the issuer. They are massively leveraged products used to short volatility, a profitable trade of late, but whose value can disappear overnight should volatility return anywhere close to historical levels. Such trades were typically the domain of sophisticated investors at specialty hedge funds. They are now freely available to any investor with a smartphone. This is the exchange-traded product universe.

Today’s financial markets are quite unlike those from even 10 years past. The current environment has spurred legion new products, many of which have never encountered a bear market. Quite likely, the weaknesses on the horizon portend greater flaws still out of sight.

(...) In this context, the melt-up scenario is much more plausible. Even though a record number of professional investors believe the market is overvalued, they know they’re on a short leash if they underperform for very long.

(...)Finally, and most importantly, is a sense of gratitude I feel toward you, our clients. Few investors would have passed the Stanford marshmallow test with flying colors the way our clients have, even in spite of me putting them through the most extreme test of deferred gratification. In the essay, “Why 1925?,” we quoted Ben Graham as saying that unless an investor had the fierce independence and temerity to step away from the madness in 1925, the chances of surviving the debacle of the Crash12 and the subsequent Great Depression were 1 in 100. Whatever storms may lie ahead, we ardently believe that our clients will be among those who survive and thrive. In the greater social context, they will be the ones through their eventual bid who might prevent a downward market spiral devoid of buyers from disintegrating into social and political chaos.


39 kommentarer:

  1. We Provide Best Packers And Movers Jaipur List for Get Free Best Quotes, Compare Charges,
    Save Money And Time,Household Shifting Services @ Packers And Movers Jaipur

    SvaraRadera
  2. Packers And Movers Hyderabad Local Household Shifting Service, Get Free Best Price Quotes Local Packers and Movers in Hyderabad List, Compare Charges, Save Money And Time @ Packers And Movers Hyderabad

    SvaraRadera
  3. We Provide List Of Best And Affordable 100% Safe Packers And Movers Bangalore For Local Shifting. Professional, Trusted And Verified Movers And Packers With Price List.
    Packers And Movers Bangalore

    SvaraRadera
  4. The primary thing that strikes a chord about QuickBooks is that it is super power programming. The product is advanced with solid highlights that make business administration simple. It robotizes the standard business undertakings and enhances the speed and precision of the business. There are times when QuickBooks experiences certain issues like QuickBooks Payroll Error 12157.

    SvaraRadera
  5. Packers and Movers Chennai Give Safe and Reliable ***Household Shifting Services in Chennai with Reasonable ###Packers and Movers Price Quotation. We Provide Household Shifting, Office Relocation, ✔✔✔Local and Domestic Transportation Services, Affordable and Reliable Shifting Service Charges @
    Packers And Movers in Chennai

    SvaraRadera
  6. At that time you need to Technical support service.only you can dial our Quickbooks Enterprise Support Number 1888-557-6950 and our technician take action very quickly, they will do this job remotely and give instant and easy solution regarding of the type of problem you are facing. We provide 24*7 online tech support service for QuickBooks Enterprise associated numerous issues.

    SvaraRadera
  7. QuickBooks Banking Error 103 or 310 are exceptionally basic QuickBooks Errors. The saving money error 103 implies that the login qualifications that have been entered in the QuickBooks Online are not acknowledged by the budgetary organization's site.

    SvaraRadera
  8. All the point of sale issues will be resolve with experts of QuickBooks POS Support Number 1-866-666-0209. Experts available 24*7 to assist you.

    QuickBooks POS Support Number

    SvaraRadera
  9. Nice and interesting information and informative too.Can you please let me know the good attraction places we can visit: Packers and Movers in Andheri West

    SvaraRadera
  10. Hiring packers and movers in Gurgaon is not too hard if you take help of the best moving professionals. Best movers and packers Gurgaon assist with their skilled and trained team to pack, load, unload and unpack your belongings.
    So be aware and hire the best mover packer to save your valuables.
    packers and movers Gurgaon
    packers and movers Gurgaon Charges

    SvaraRadera
  11. Local Packers and Movers Bangalore List, Get Best Price Quotes, Compare Movers and packers Charges, Top, Local Household Shifting Services
    Packers And Movers Bangalore

    SvaraRadera
  12. The team deployed at the conclusion of QuickBooks Support telephone number takes great proper care of all associated with the issues of the software. QuickBooks Support telephone number have a team of experts which may be pro in handling most of the issues because of this incredible software. You'll need not to worry after all as you are seeking help under the guidance of supremely talented and skilled support engineers that leave no stone unturned to land you of all errors which are part and parcel of QuickBooks.

    SvaraRadera
  13. QuickBooks Support contact number has a great deal to offer to its customers in order to manage every trouble that obstructs your projects. There are tons many errors in QuickBooks such as difficulty in installing this software, problem in upgrading the software in to the newer version so that you can avail the most recent QuickBooks features, trouble in generating advanced reports, difficulty with opening company file in multi-user mode and thus on and so forth. Whatever the issue is, if it bothers you and deters the performance of your respective business, you may need to not get back seat and offer up, just dial us at our toll-free number and luxuriate in incredible customer care.
    QuickBooks Support Phone Number

    QuickBooks Support Number

    QuickBooks Tech Support Number

    QuickBooks Tech Support Phone Number

    Intuit QuickBooks Support

    Intuit QuickBooks Support Number

    QuickBooks Customer Service Number

    QuickBooks Customer Service

    QuickBooks Customer Service Phone Number

    QuickBooks Support

    QuickBooks Help Number

    QuickBooks Helpline Number

    Intuit QuickBooks Phone Number

    QuickBooks Technical Support Number

    QuickBooks Technical Support Phone Number

    QuickBooks Toll-free Support Number

    QuickBooks Toll-free Number

    QuickBooks Support

    QuickBooks Desktop Support Number

    QuickBooks Support Number USA

    QuickBooks Support USA

    QuickBooks Customer Support Number

    QuickBooks 24/ 7 Tech Support Number

    QuickBooks 24/ 7 Tech Support Phone Number

    QuickBooks USA Support Number

    QuickBooks USA Support Phone Number

    QuickBooks 2019 Support Number

    QuickBooks 247 Tech Support Number

    QuickBooks Support Phone Number 2019

    Support Number For QuickBooks

    SvaraRadera




  14. Book Best and Verified packers and movers in Gurgaon and Pune, Expert in Home Relocation within or outside Gurgaon and Pune. Compare 3 quotes from nearby packers and movers in Pune and Gurgaon. Get 100% safe & affordable packing moving from Professional Packers and Movers.

    Packers and movers in Gurgaon
    Packers and movers rates in Gurgaon
    Packers and movers Gurgaon charges
    Packers and movers rates in Pune
    Packers and movers Pune charges
    Packers and movers Pune rates

    SvaraRadera
  15. Our QuickBooks Support telephone number channel- We comprehend the complexity and need using this accounting software in day to day life. You can’t watch out for more or less time for it to get a fix of each and every single QB error. Therefore we have designed a especially dedicated team of certified professionals at QuickBooks Support contact number that are able to understanding your issues and errors in minimum time as well as in probably the most convenient way. Dial our QuickBooks Support Phone Number and avail the top solution you will need.
    QuickBooks Intuit Tech Support Number


    QuickBooks Error Help Number


    QuickBooks Customer Number


    QuickBooks Phone Number Tech Support


    QuickBooks Online Tech Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Desktop Support Phone Number


    Quickoboks Phone Number


    QuickBooks Online Technical Support Phone Number


    Quick Phone Number


    QuickBooks Online Technical Support


    QuickBooks Online Support


    QuickBooks Toll Free Number


    QuickBooks 2018 Support Phone Number


    Phone Number For QuickBooks Technical Support


    QuickBooks Error Support


    QuickBooks Online Tech Support Number


    QuickBooks Premier Tech Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Technical Support Support Phone Number


    Tech Support Quick Books Phone Number


    Phone Number For QuickBooks Help


    Intuit QuickBooks Phone Number


    Quick Books Tech Support

    SvaraRadera
  16. QuickBooks was created to meet your every accounting needs and requirement with a great ease. This software grows along with your business and perfectly adapts with changing business environment. Everbody knows there are always two sides to a coin and QuickBooks isn't any different. This software also throws some errors in the long run. Sometimes it becomes rather difficult to understand this is with this error code or message. If that's the case you should call our QuickBooks Support telephone number to own in touch with our technical experts in order to search for the fix of error instantly.
    QuickBooks Premier Technical Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Premier Support Phone Number


    Intuit Live Chat Support


    QuickBooks Upgrade Support Phone Number


    Call QuickBooks Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Error Support Phone Number USA


    QuickBooks 2019 Support Number


    QuickBooks Upgrade Support 2018


    QuickBooks Toll Free Tech Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks US Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Intuit Tech Support


    QuickBooks Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Error Support Phone Number


    Contact QuickBooks Support Phone Number


    Quick Book Phone Number


    QuickBooks Technical Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Phone Support


    QuickBooks Technical Support


    Quick Mobile Number


    Quick Book Number


    QuickBooks Technical Support


    QuickBooks Phone Number


    QuickBooks Tech Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Support


    QuickBooks Customer Support Phone Number


    QuickBooks Support Number


    QuickBooks Customer Support Number


    QuickBooks Help Phone Number


    QuickBooks Customer Service Phone Number


    QuickBooks Error Support Number

    SvaraRadera
  17. Our technical team will guide you through some simple steps which you have to follow to resolve any error. We have a highly qualified technical team and they are best at what they do. One can use Epson printer very easily without any knowledge about the printers, but when your printer stops working at that moment of time you should take some professional help.
    So if you are confronting any issues or if you ever face in the future then you just have to pick up your phone and call out the Epson printer support phone number +1-855-381-2666.


    Epson Printer Technical Support Number

    Epson Printer Technical Support

    Epson Printer Tech Support Phone Number

    Epson Printer Technical Support Phone Number

    SvaraRadera
  18. We are Provide Helpline Toll Free Number For HP Printer Support
    Therefore, when these issues appear, either error or else the printer is not responding, our HP Printer customer care number support system has every solution to the customers query. Our service makes visualization of a solution so clear that every customer needs information to the point. Before when there was no printer facility, people use to rewrite every document several time to get a similar copy of the original one. But after the invention of the printer, the time-saving feature is applied and rewriting of pages came to an end. The Hp printer customer service number, not only enables to work for experience customers, but also enhance their work for fresher, who are not able to start the printer for the first time they buy. As it is said above that everything needs to be updated, so is the HP Printer. People usually look for installing HP Printer. Because it gives an updates reminder of the printer. The user can install HP printer Support by getting help from our helpline number
    HP Printer Support Phone Number

    HP Printer Support Number

    HP Printer Support

    HP Envy Printer Support

    HP Printer Customer Support Number

    HP Printer Customer Support Phone Number

    HP Printer Helpline Number

    HP Printer Technical Support Number

    SvaraRadera
  19. Thank you very much for keeping this information Share this.
    Jai Balaji Packers and Movers
    Contact - +91 9838276084, 9808623702
    jaibalajipackersandmoversagra@gmail.com
    Jai Balaji Packers and Movers offering very quality-situated administrations. Be that as it may, it has its branches in all over India. We take into account the variable needs of our clients by offering administrations like Home migration, Office movement, Packing and Unpacking, Loading and Unloading. These administrations can be profited from any alcove and corner of the nation.

    SvaraRadera

  20. QuickBooks payroll online is the most desired software when it comes to dealing with one’s finances and managing it. This software has equipped almost all the QuickBooks user with so much strength that they feel accomplished. QuickBooks Online Payroll is one such software that has instilled the correct sense of using your money and it’s management in the best possible manner. You can get QuickBooks support at any time at Quickbooks Payroll Support Phone Number +1-855-686-6166.

    SvaraRadera
  21. HP Printer Support Phone Number USA + 1-888-600-5222.
    is live 24 hours and 365 days of the year to provide immediate assistance and support to HP Printer Users. You can find HP Printer Support Number on different search engine such as google, bing, yahoo, Aol, Duckduckgo etc.

    SvaraRadera
  22. Hp Printer Support Phone Number
    Our HP Printer Support 24/7 Available For Printer Help The printer is a standout among the most significant computer hardware device, which causes you get a printed version of your computerized archives.
    There is various brand contending to accomplish the number one position, yet HP is champion among all. It incorporates unmistakable highlights, great printing, laser-quality content and an amazing motor for better speed. In fact HP printers fulfill every quality parameter, the users frequently faces HP Printer Problems errors/issues.
    These issues can influence your work process just as the nature of your printing device. In this manner, to save you from the bother, HP Printer Technical Support Phone Number is presented.

    SvaraRadera
  23. Great post! Dial Quickbooks Support Phone Number 800-901-6679 for the urgent solution. Our Proadvisor always available for you.
    Visit on https://tinyurl.com/yxrap2cp

    SvaraRadera
  24. Dial QuickBooks Support Phone Number 1-800-986-4607 now to meet your accounting needs at one place. QuickBooks is really an outstanding product that comes into existence to cater to the needs of small as well as medium scale business.

    SvaraRadera
  25. We are provides a QuickBooks Toll-Free Number. Our support team constitutes of highly skilled & trained technicians who have years of experience in handling technical defects. It doesn’t matter how complex the issues would be. Get it resolved, from our Support team. As they are available for you, 24*7. Whenever you face any trouble, feel free to contact Quickbooks helpline 1-209-337-3009


    SvaraRadera