Tur att man har Draghi

Det finns inga som helst tecken på att denna börsen är överhettad eller spekulativ. Det finns inga som helst tecken på att börsen är ohälsosamt beroende av centralbanker. Komedin fortsätter:

Draghi tyckte uppenbarligen inte att EURO stod tillräckligt lågt, utan bestämde sig för att sänka valutan ytterligare på bekostnad av omgivningen (USA).

Det är tur att Yellen och Draghi tar hand om marknaden, för tänk om Yellen skulle gör någoting börsen inte gilla. Det är tur att vi har centralbankirer som fokuserar på marknadernas välmående. 

Gissningar om oljans utveckling.

Det är av uppenbara skäl oerhört svårt att säga något deterministiskt kring oljans framtida pris. Olja påverkas av OPEC, Iran, prospekteringsnivån och efterfrågan. Vad man på sin höjd kan konstatera är om någon av dessa faktorer rör sig i rätt riktning, givet att man vill se högre priser på olja.

"I USA har antalet oljeriggar som borrar efter olja minskat kraftigt, men produktionen av olja fortsätter att öka. Det kommer ta ett tag innan kollapsen i antalet riggar slår igenom på produktionsnivåerna i USA. Borras det efter mindre olja kommer förr eller senare äldre brunnar ta slut, vilket leder till att utbudet minskar. Riskerna är att justeringen i utbudet inte kan motverka den allt mer uppenbara globala inbromsningen. Viss exponering mot oljeindustrin kan vara önskvärt, men tålamod krävs och man bör ta höjd för fortsatta fall vid eventuella inköp." (inlägg den 28 juni)

Den amerikanska oljeproduktionen ser ut att ha börjat falla och detta kommer verka positivt på oljepriset förr eller senare. Fallet i antalet riggar har börjat märkas av, men produktionen har en bra bit kvar att falla. Av en händelse sammanföll inlägget den 28 juni med ett fall i oljeproduktionen och man får se om detta fortgår.

Graf över oljeproduktionen i USA

BULL!
Förvaltarna på FPA Capital Fund tror att oljan ska upp på grund av att marginalkostnaden ligger över dagens pris och att Capex har kollapsat.

"The marginal cost of oil production is around $80/barrel The marginal cost of oil production is the total cost to find and extract the last barrel of oil from the ground to satisfy the demand for that last barrel. The mid-cycle marginal cost of oil production is around $80 per barrel (although current marginal cost levels may be below $80/bbl simply because of temporary service company price reductions due to the downturn).

(...) Between 1999 and 2014, global upstream capex only fell twice; in 2002 when it fell by 5%, and 2009 when it fell by 16%.4 In 2015, upstream capex is expected to be down 23%, the largest decline in 20 years, and is expected to be down in excess of 10% again in 2016 if Brent oil is below $60/bbl. Within North America specifically, capex is expected to fall by 40% in 2015 and more than 20% in 2016. We have already started experiencing the impact of lower spending in the U.S., where total crude production is down over half a million barrels per day as of September 2015 after hitting 9.6mm in early June. We expect these declines to continue as the U.S. companies started cutting expenditures earlier this year in earnest.

(...) Decline rates persist whether oil prices are high or low. It is unavoidable that supply capacity will shrink without ongoing investment. Global decline rates were pegged at somewhere between 4.5% and 6.7% back in 2008. Note that those rates were determined before the rise of shale oil, which has drastically higher decline rates." (http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/hc_capital/2015-q3-fpa-cap-commentary.pdf?sfvrsn=2)

Det har kommit ut några "domedags rubriker" på sistone och jag föredrar denna rubriksättning framför mer positiva rubriker. Tidigare i år fanns det en viljan att spekulera oljeprisuppgångar och denna vilja verkar också ha minskat. Jag tycker viss exponering mot olja/gas kan vara intressant, men man bör hålla exponeringen låg och "smart".

BEARISH!
Jim Chanos lägger fram en betydligt mer negativ bild än förvaltarna på FPA Capital och han är särskilt negativt inställd till "shale" industrin i USA. I sin presentation (här) påpekar han att oljeproduktionen inte fallit särskilt mycket, trots den stora nedgången i antalet amerikanska riggar.  Jim Chanos påpekar också att produktionsfallen inte kommer bli särskilt stora den kommande tiden, vilket står i konflikt till vad FPA Capitals förvaltar påpeka ovan.

Produktionen skulle förmodligen fallit kraftigare om marknaden inte varit doppad med låga räntor, som lett till att kapital sökt sig till "high yield" obligationer. Det är denna tillströmningen av kapital som bidragit till att hålla många bolag flytande. Det börjar dock uppstå påfrestningar här, eftersom spekulanter börjar dra tillbaka sitt kapital och produktionen faller extremt snabbt i "shale" sektorn.

Fallet i antalet riggar är nu så extremt att man kan fråga sig hur länge produktionen kan upprätthållas. Det verkar dock som att de stora obalanserna som uppstått i oljesektorn kan komma att ta lång tid att räta ut, men såvida inte efterfrågan faller kraftigt bör förr eller senare priset stiga.

Inbromsning?

Kina står för drygt 12% av oljekonsumtionen (min beräkning). Kina kan alltså påverka priset på olja, men det är inte Kina som enskilt bestämmer hur priset på olja kommer utvecklas. Kinas bubbla är baserad på kreditexpansion, spekulation och överbyggnation, men inte en överdriven oljekonsumtion.  Går Kina åt helvetet går mycket annat åt helvetet och dessa spridningseffekter kan ha betydande påverkan på oljeefterfrågan.

Riskerna för en recession i USA har ökat och det är troligt att världsekonomin saktar in. Om inbromsning blir stor eller bara resulterar i några kvartal med sämre tillväxt är omöjligt att veta.

"Det är troligt att centralbankerna börjar intervenera på marknaderna och man får helt enkelt se om marknaden kan återfå riskviljan igen. Redan nu har ECB och FED ledamöter börjat intervenera verbalt. FED ledamöter talar om att skjuta fram räntehöjningen i september och ECB ledamöter öppnar upp för nya stimulanser. Om dessa "verbala" interventioner kommer omsättas i handling eller endast är prat från enstaka individer är svårt att veta." (Tidigare inlägg den 30 augusti, Länk)

Föga förvånande valde FED att intervenera genom att skjuta upp räntehöjningen igen. Den uteblivna räntehöjningen tillsammans med "lagom" dålig statistik ledde till att placerare började ta positioner på börsen igen. Det har skett en viss lageruppbyggnad i amerikansk ekonomi och givet att lagerhållningen blivit allt mer effektivare har siffran stigit rejält.

(Länk)

Samtidigt tror jag inte att man bör dra alltför långt gående slutsatser utifrån detta. Recessioner är extremt oförutsägbara när det gäller timing och storlek. Hur vet man om det kommer bli en recession eller bara svagare positiv tillväxt i några kvartal?

 Nedanstående graf illustrerar svårigheterna med att säga något definitivt om kommande recessioner. Under 2012 var USA riktigt nära att få en recession, men det blev ej så och därför bör man inte dra för långtgående slutsatser. Man kan också fråga sig en om en liten recession med en nedgång i BNP om ringa -0,2 % är särskilt katastrofal.

(Länk)

Om man är intresserad av oljesektorn rekommenderar jag att man läser nedanstående. Jag tycker Vito Maidas sätt att investera i oljesektorn är väldigt sunt och märk hur Vito Maida tagit höjd för de flesta scenarion som kan inträffa genom de bolag han väljer att köpa.

"So much for peak oil!

Peak oil refers to the theory that oil prices would rise ever higher because of increasing demand and diminishing supplies. Furthermore, it was argued that finding new sources of oil was becoming more and more expensive. The per barrel cost of finding and developing oil in frontier areas such as the Arctic and other very remote locations would raise the price of oil to $200 per barrel in the near future. Of course this view was at its most popular as energy prices were on an upward trend and near their peaks.

As the graph below from SeekingAlpha.com indicates, peak oil seems to have been turned upside down. The price of oil has fallen from just over $100 per barrel in early 2014 to approximately $50 at the end of the year.

This dramatic decline should remind all of us that no matter how attractive, eloquent and interesting the people and the arguments may be; a healthy dose of skepticism is in order when explanations are put forth to justify rising prices. The fact of the matter is that the “invisible hand” of Adam Smith’s market forces always ensure that reversion to the mean prevails!

The fall in oil prices has resulted in a corresponding drop in the share prices of energy related businesses. As you would expect we have spent a considerable amount of time rummaging through the rubble. Fortunately, we have found some gems amongst the ruins and deployed some of our capital to energy companies that we believe are well capitalized industry leaders and that provide the potential for substantial returns.

Some portfolio managers believe that commodity companies are not attractive businesses and therefore should always be avoided. While we would agree that for the most part commodity companies are low return businesses we believe that under the right circumstances they can provide an excellent rate of return over a five year holding period. We look for several important factors before we purchase a commodity related business:

√ A long life and high quality resource base

√ Low cost operations

√ A very strong balance sheet

√ Conservative and experienced management

√ Shares trading at a substantial discount to our estimated net asset value

It is important to note that we calculate our net asset value based on the long term inflation adjusted price of the commodity in question. There are no peak oil like theories at PCM! Our process leads us to invest in companies that can sustain a prolonged period of low commodity prices and that we purchase them at prices trading below our estimated net asset value. Our investment philosophy also ensures that we sell above net asset value and realize our profit." (Patient Capital Management, newsletter 2014-12)

Bauposts (Klarmans) investeringar den 17 december 1999

"Currently, a number of spinoffs are truly orphaned securities trading at giveaway prices. For example, we have recently purchased shares of both of the recently separated subsidiaries of Tenneco, Inc. The larger company, Pactiv Corporation, manufactures Baggies brand food storage bags and Hefty brand trash bags, and has leading market shares in a myriad of other plastic packaging products. Due to indiscriminate post-spinoff selling pressure, the shares have slumped to around 10 times currently depressed after-tax earnings and about 5.5 times pretax cash flow. The earnings should grow from a combination of cost reductions, asset redeployments, bolt-on acquisitions, volume growth, and expected lower raw materials prices. Management recently received significant stock options as part of a new incentive plan to better align their interests with those of shareholders. They have also been buying stock personally. It has been many years since a branded consumer products business fell through the cracks to trade at such a compelling valuation.

We are also buying shares of the Tenneco Automotive spinoff; this company manufactures Monroe shock absorbers and Walker mufflers, and is the market share leader in nearly all of its products and markets. It currently trades at approximately four times after-tax earnings. It's shares have been particularly brutalized as a result of its deletion from the S&P 500 Index. Tenneco pre-spinoff traded at a market capitalization of several billion dollars; the highly leveraged Tenneco Automotive spinoff, still under extreme selling pressure, trades at a market capitalization barely above $200 million. Selling pressure has turned this market leader into a micro-capitalization stock, forcing many holders to exit because it no longer meets their size criteria. In effect, there is now a class of shareholders who must sell a stock simply because it trades at a depressed market valuation.

Harcourt General recently spun off most of its interest in Neiman Marcus, allowing it to become a pure play in the publishing and computer-based learning and training businesses. In the current turbulent market, we believe investors have failed to focus on the low valuation and highquality, strongly growing businesses within Harcourt. Currently, trading at a several year low, the shares trade for under 12 times cash earnings (earnings plus goodwill amortization) and for roughly half of our estimate of the company's asset value. The company is expected to grow earnings 12 - 15% annually, and recently reported strong quarterly results. Harcourt's management has most of their net worths invested in the company (which they control) and has committed to take additional actions as warranted to cause the company's share price to more fully reflect underlying business value.

Chemfirst, a specialty chemical company, came public several years ago as a spinoff. Despite the company's strong position in the fast growing electronics chemicals market, the shares trade at around five times estimated cash flow. Business results are strong, and the company's management owns a substantial interest in the company. In addition, the company is actively repurchasing its shares. We believe the company will eventually be acquired in the chemical industry's consolidation. We own several investments in the real estate area including shares in LNR Corporation, a spinoff a few years ago from a respected homebuilding company. This company is essentially an opportunistic investor in a variety of real estate assets, with a bias toward purchasing underperforming or out of favor properties, turning them around and selling them. They have achieved consistently strong returns over time, and the underlying value of the company's assets is close to twice the current market price of the shares. We expect underlying value to grow at a healthy rate for the foreseeable future. Management owns approximately 30% of the company's shares, and the company has been repurchasing substantial amounts of its own stock at the current price.

Octel was spun-off from Great Lakes Chemical Corporation in 1998 and has not succeeded in attracting investor interest. It is the world's dominant producer and marketer of worldwide TEL, a fuel additive that makes gasoline "leaded." This has been called a "sunset industry" because leaded gasoline is being phased out all over the world. In the meantime, however, it is a high margin business that requires almost no ongoing investment. Octel has recently consolidated its position and now controls in excess of 90% of the worldwide TEL market. The company is currently buying back around 10% of its stock per year. There are two primary risks - that the phase-out goes much more quickly than the 15-20% annual decline that management anticipates or that the company's abundant cash flow is squandered on foolish acquisitions rather than being used to pay down debt and buy back stock. At three times current after-tax earnings, valuation more than compensates for these risks.

We have recently become more active investors in thrift conversions. Thrifts at one time had a large dedicated community of investors, but after a period of overvaluation and poor stock performance, this is no longer true. While there are generally no short-term catalysts for value realization in this area, stock repurchases are accretive to shareholder value and industry consolidation seems likely to continue at a healthy pace. In short, the opportunity to buy significantly overcapitalized, conservatively managed thrifts between 50% and 75% of book value and at reasonable earnings multiples offer a low-risk investment with significant return potential.

We own shares in Stewart Enterprises, a funeral home and cemetery company which currently trades at approximately six times after-tax earnings per share. The death care industry has come under pressure as a result of overpriced acquisitions, excessive levels of debt, a recent, temporary decline in the death rate, and increased competition in some regional markets. All of the public companies in this industry are trading at extremely depressed levels. Stewart has some of the best properties in the industry; the company has recently repurchased its stock around current levels, and insiders have added to their holdings. A new management team is expected to reorient the company to maximize free cash flow generation.

Ucar is the world's leading manufacturer of graphite electrodes which are used in steel production. The company came under a cloud a few years ago when the industry admitted to price fixing. Results were then adversely affected by the Asian crisis last year. Management announced a sweeping cost cutting plan, which has been implemented faster than expected. Earnings are expected to grow strongly over the next few years as a result of lower expense levels, stronger demand, and possible price increases from currently depressed levels. The company also has announced a potentially lucrative product development and supply agreement with Ballard Power Systems, developers of a new fuel cell technology. Despite the company's excellent prospects and strong market position, the shares trade at roughly eight times estimated 2000 earnings.

Chargeurs is a French company which processes and trades in wool and produces fabrics, interlinings, and protective films. It is the market leader in virtually every segment in which it operates, generating substantial free cash flow from operations. Management is proactive in taking measures to maximize shareholder value including a securitization program to reduce volatility and risk in the trading business and the repurchase of a large number of shares. Some segments of the business have suffered as a result of the Asian crisis and are only now beginning to recover. Even on depressed results, however, the market values the company at approximately seven times earnings. Small capitalization companies in mundane businesses are out of favor in France, too.

Lambert Fenchurch is a publicly traded insurance broker in the U.K. Small in scale and in an industry that was out of favor amongst British investors, the company was unable to get a reasonable valuation from the stock market. Trading around 80 pence, the shares languished at six times earnings. Last month, after a long strategic review, the company accepted a takeover offer at 145 pence per share. The deal went unconditional on December 16.

Saab is a Swedish defense company primarily focused on aircraft, space and training systems which is valued at about seven times earnings. This valuation does not take into account growth opportunities available from the expansion of Saab's fighter aircraft program into the export market; the company recently received its first export order, validating our investment thesis. Management is also pursuing value creation through the monetization of the company's civilian aircraft lease portfolio. Last month, Saab agreed to purchase Celsius, another Swedish defense contractor, in a deal that enhances value by about 20% after cost-saving and revenue synergies. Although the European defense market is undergoing rapid consolidation, Saab, as one of the smallest remaining independent players, is below the radar screen of most investors.

We continue to have exposure to several investments whose outcome is totally independent of the level of the stock market. One such holding is Trustor Corporation, which is in liquidation. The company's assets are cash and legal claims against a former executive who committed embezzlement. Cash on hand exceeds the share price and a substantial liquidating distribution is expected shortly. Another such investment is in the debt of Maxwell Communications, which is also in liquidation. This company continues to make good progress selling off its assets and resolving legal claims at better-than-expected levels. Another liquidating distribution from Maxwell is expected in late December."